Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[rollthedice] 22/1/2019 15:22

tgg - quite, I stand corrected & no I don't think all the PUT licences will be dusters...

[thegreatgeraldo] 22/1/2019 15:20

rollthedice
22 Jan '19 - 15:07 - 16406 of 16406

. We'll make a few quid by letting others use currently unused capacity on OBA which has already largely paid for itself...".

...There we are, I've corrected that for you. Unless you think all the 2019 wells down sarf will be dusters......

[paradores] 22/1/2019 15:17

"El primer tequila añejo cristalino del mundo llega a Colombia: Don Julio 70"
hxxps://zonarosa.co/lanzamiento-tequila-don-julio-70/

;o0

[rollthedice] 22/1/2019 15:07

I think it's more the feeling that BoD are still withholding info than the figures themselves which weren't quite as bad as I expected. I'd prefer them to come right out and say "Plat is a mature field, production has decreased to c3k bopd which we will work to maintain while putting most of our effort into the new exciting fields at x,y&z where capex would be better spent. We'll make a few quid by letting others use unused capacity on OBA which has already largely paid for itself...".

[bad gateway] 22/1/2019 14:53

Shame plats hit sentiment. Needs a good afternoon now or the chart will most likely be looking at a failed golden cross next few days following on from the dp at 20p.
Wouldn't be surprised to see 16.25p before the next lift.

[fadilz] 22/1/2019 14:50

al101uk, earlier, the only way I could reconcile Plat value with the share price was to reduce reserves to about 6m. I'm using $20 cost of production, to allow for reworks, but who knows? TBH it's anyone's guess what the state of Plat is. Clearly they are producing. Was 4400, now seems to be under 3000 (could be less - we know how claims of 'current' production work. A bit like Edgar Hoover switching off all FBI phone taps and then testifying to congress that there were none - I'm not an american, but you see what I mean). So reasonable to suspect that something is wrong (and I don't mean RH). And JW referred to ageing wellstock at the AGM.

I don't write Plat off, but I suspect production from there will not rise much above 4000 again, and reserves and profitability may well reduce. But luckily for us all, CPO-5 came in, and high hopes for other put licences. So even if plat contribution halves from 16p we would still show healthy gains.

[al101uk] 22/1/2019 14:34

Nope bad math again!

[lbrokes] 22/1/2019 14:26

Electric vehicles are needed

[kaos3] 22/1/2019 14:25

what I do not get is why the government is using trucking at the well head, not pipe

[charlieeee] 22/1/2019 14:13

TGG

No. It was the cost based on Mariposa.

What will be interesting to see is the cost of the further wells drilled off the same pad, with the roads already in place and only upgrade to the storage required. As for the rig, instead of lugging it off to Sol, all they have to do is to rig down and up again on the same pad.

Costs will be interesting, but it may be some time before ONGC get costs down to 3.5m per drill including testing. Looking at AMER's other prospects, it can be clearly seen that it is the civils that distort the cost per well: see Put 8 (already established therefore 2 wells plus civils for $8.2m) in comparison with the PUT 9/12 estimates: the ill fated N sands were cheap per well as infrastructure already close by on Plat.

What can be clearly concluded is that capex and opex will both come down in any large discovery and hence highly profitable per barrel.

[mark of the rushes] 22/1/2019 14:09

paradores.."...el ultimo tequila a la garganta, estimados amigos!"

Shouldn't that be la ultima tequila?

:-)

[al101uk] 22/1/2019 14:08

Ah!

It will be April when the full reserves/resource update is released. I jumped the gun when I read "Reserves, Operational and Production Update" in the RNS. It's only a reserves update as regards CPO-5.

So seems like the safest way forward is to use the reserves update from last year, which gives P2 reserves as 19 million (P1 is 13 million).

That ups the value to 20p using my methodology with fadilz numbers.

(bad math deleted)

[moneylender] 22/1/2019 14:03

Not a fan but loads are:

Malcy's view

Amerisur Resources

A full update today from AMER which highlights quite what a good position the company is in. Q4 production was 4,602 b/d with a peak of 5,405 b/d, current production is 5,426 b/d.

The company has had an independent reserves report done which gives preliminary results on CPO-5 of gross 2P reserves of 22.7 mmbo at Indico-1X and 2.9 mmbo at Mariposa. Mean gross prospective resources of 49.3 mmbo are attributed to the LS3 play around the Indico and Mariposa discoveries which is right where the upcoming drilling programme is situated and there is plenty of upside.

Currently Indico is producing 5,130 b/d under choked natural flow whilst Mariposa continues to produce at 3,150 b/d and the operator is now preparing the FDP.

The company has an active drilling programme all of which is fully funded from internal resources and positive cash flow from internal producing assets and the company is debt free. Expect at least four wells on the Indico pad, as well as six wells on the Coendu structure (Put9 and 12) as well as the now infamous Miraparriba-1 well on Put 8. Given the partnership with Occidental Andina which adds a colossal amount of grunt in the south and has brought forward that drilling programme and with ONGC in the north where even more wells are being considered, activity in the portfolio has the opportunity to ‘transform Amerisur’ in the words of CEO John Wardle.

The last time I looked the shares were around 18.5p which is an astonishingly big discount to where the true valuation of AMER really lies. The company is creating shareholder value across the board with ‘material upside’ in the portfolio and an active programme with the drill bit across a number of prospects. The last year or so of throwing off cash will now enable the company to make substantial returns for shareholders, no wonder Mr Wardle says ‘ I have never been more excited by, or optimistic about the company’s future ‘. Time to follow the directors and buy the shares.

[raweden] 22/1/2019 13:50

Malcy flash blog:

[lbrokes] 22/1/2019 13:38

Mine like men with huge cojones

[al101uk] 22/1/2019 13:23

fadilz (a lot of other people may want to skip to the last line)

It was how you were looking at Plat that interested me. I'm getting more cautious in my valuation methodology, while being very aware that many on here considered me far to cautious last time.

Right now, using your: oil price, reserves and production numbers, but using my methods and an old, probably in need of update spreadsheet I get about 14p for Plat.

I'm not convinced by that number though and suspect it should be lower. That's mainly as a result of the drop off in production, last years results and the sheer lack of information in the latest RNS. I could make a serious argument for Plat being worthless at $50 per barrel and speculate that is now the case up to $60.

I guess I'll have to satisfy myself with being more certain if/when Camarco get back to me.

CPO-5... Wohoooo.... £1 by Xmas!

[thegreatgeraldo] 22/1/2019 13:21

Just double-checked re GPRK - my apologies, they reckon $3.5 mill to drill, test & complete for production......

& yes, as per the interims, AMER's share of 3 CPO-5 wells was given as $6 mill. Mind you, that might have been dry hole cost?

[charlieeee] 22/1/2019 13:16

TGG

Agreed.

GPRK have deeper wells and heavier oil and ridiculously cheap operating costs

"Colombia: Operating costs per boe increased to $6.2 per boe in 3Q2018 compared to $5.5 per boe in 3Q2017. Total operating costs increased by 48% to $15.9 million, due to a 29% increase in volumes delivered and one-time charges for $1.7 million (or $0.7 per boe) associated with road and well maintenance costs due to excessive and unseasonal rain in the Llanos 34 block."

I will go with my original assumption re economies of scale, given the number of wells (and a really slick operation).

What has to be said is that our oil is more valuable and easier to lift, so in due course, we should match their figures or do better.

All the graphs on the GPRK 2019 presentation show what can happen to production, when a company hits the elephant field.

[paradores] 22/1/2019 13:07

Cracking RNS this morning with JW "no fue nada"-ing his "palabras". They know what they've got here.

...el ultimo tequila a la garganta, estimados amigos!

[thegreatgeraldo] 22/1/2019 12:59

charlieeeee...... similar depths oop north for GPRK... & they're not just drilling production wells!!! Still sticking down explo & app wells on block 34

[charlieeee] 22/1/2019 12:47

TGG

I was working from memory on the capex per presentation

"CPO-5 (3 wells)
$6m"

So, $2m per well for us and total cost per well approx. $6m

and I think that was based on Mariposa, which was similar.

I am assuming that Indico came in on budget.

GPRK will be getting economies of scale and production wells may be cheaper. The obvious question is are the depths similar? Interesting point: worth some research.

[knackers] 22/1/2019 12:46

Only a cynic wouldn't buy into prospects for the forthcoming exploration programme!

[fadilz] 22/1/2019 12:39

Hi al101uk, I think my views have already been expressed by others. Plat is in decline, but it was always seedcorn for other developments. Key thing now is the forward program, and the question as charlieee says is whether you buy into the exploration story, which I most definately do.

They say current production is 5426, which leaves 2942 from Plat after you take out 30% of Mariposa + Indico. I put 16.8p on Plat currently, using 14m reserves and 2942 production, $60 oil. CPO-5 gets 10.7p on a similar basis. So as I said earlier about 26p fair value.

Not hard to see CPO-5 rising to 40p value by end of year, if the current program succeeds, and then there is Put 8/9/12, which potentially adds very large reserves, with some results and potential value in the coming year.

Area___Reserves(mb)__Barrels/day___$/bbl profit___#Years___NPV10____xBase___sp
CPO-5__ 7.7______________2484__________40_____________9_______193____0.18___10.7
Plat___ 14.0______________2942__________40_____________13______303____0.28___16.8

[thegreatgeraldo] 22/1/2019 12:29

charlieeee
22 Jan '19 - 12:19 - 16384 of 16384

A well that cost 6 million to drill may recover 5.8 mmbo.

...That makes sense as there are probably mob costs included, but I'm sure I've seen somewhere that AMER's share of Indico drilling costs was $3 mill? Happy to be proved wrong!

For info, GPRK to the north reckon they can drill a well for around $2.5 mill, $4 mill all in completed for testing/production.

[moneylender] 22/1/2019 12:22

From ShareHub

Amerisur Resources continues to impress with the recent Indico-1 flow results.
AMER assets are land based (onshore) and they have decent options when it comes
to exports via OBA pipeline or via trucked routes. Margin levels are better than your
usual offshore explorer/producer. And being debt free, the incoming cash from
production continues to mount up. Fully funded for 2019 ops and non stop high
impact drilling planned for all year makes AMER one of the most compelling buys
around today. At 18.7p, the stock has all the catalysts required to multibag in 2019…
providing the drill bit delivers success of course. M&A has been active in the
Colombian region and AMER may have to watch out for unwanted approaches by
Occidental should the exploration campaign in the Putumayo region, go well. ONGC might have something to say about that too which is why AMER might find itself in a
takeover battle come end of 2019.