Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[al101uk] 19/12/2016 20:41

FoiledAgain,

Exactly, and as much seems explicitly declared in the update.

Back in 2014 I used to keep track of the reported production from each well...

I think these figures were from April 2014:

Iguasa-1=20
Alea-1R =0
Alea-1R-ST=700
Platinillo-1-ST=530
Platinillo-2=100
Platinillo-3=1500
Platinillo-4=500
Platinillo-5=1500
Platinillo-6=1150
Platinillo-10=1000
Platinillo-11=1500
Platinillo-9=730
Platinillo-2-ST=1000 (on test)
Platinillo-12=1450
Platanillo-14=Testing
Platanillo-7=1300


That's over 10,000 bopd... what happened?

The quote from the update I'm referring to is:

"Throughput above current levels is dependent upon the optimisation of the system and the Company's production."

If production can't just be ramped back up then that has a knock on for my assumptions on reserves increasing from current levels.

[holism] 19/12/2016 19:18

francis have i missed another share freebie or are they about to award another just before announcing an increase in the 5000 bopd throughput agreement. Remember they acquired shares when they announced the pipeline and forecast it would be ready a few years back, imminently of course. All when oil prices were above 60 and the share price too. The oil price isn't far off, why hasn't the share price gone back up I wonder!!One word answer- Management.

[francis55] 19/12/2016 17:33

I use a traffic light system when scanning reports as some go on for ever, red for key words associated with debt or bad news, yellow for neutral news and green for good news or results. Amer never have any red assiciated words in their reports which tells me they go out of there way to ensure reports are always erring on the side of positive when the reality is the opposit and by doing so its essentially fobbing off its investors. They have no issues giving themselves shares but for what?

[dayway123] 19/12/2016 17:19

al101. As share holders we do need representation at board level after the numerous fiascos and I certainly would be prepared to contribute my holding to.

[foiledagain] 19/12/2016 17:16

oilandgas

The technical capacity means jack shi if when its been planned the pumping capacity is less than 5,000bopd without additional pumping station, which is what seems to be the situation here.

Very very bad planning. Technically illiterate planning imo

[valentine] 19/12/2016 16:49

Daedalus tried to warn him. Many will wax lyrical im sure about prospects but the old Curare dart from out of the bucolic camouflage has found its mark.

[rollthedice] 19/12/2016 16:41

Ah yes but tomorrow it could be flying

---

In a similar fashion to Icarus I suspect. No reason for this to rise that I can see in the short term barring M&A action.

[oilandgas1] 19/12/2016 15:50

The Company has a guaranteed throughput of up to 5,000 BOPD in the pipeline and an increase is currently being negotiated. The technical capacity is 50,000 BPD and the line has a currently installed export pump capacity of 18,000 BOPD.

[lucyp00p] 19/12/2016 15:40

Ah yes but tomorrow it could be flying

[al101uk] 19/12/2016 14:45

Sleveen,

Have a look at the rest of my portfolio and you'd know that I would never, ever be invested in a one trick pony like COPL. Very dangerous game and way outside my risk/reward tolerance.

Glaxo
Alliance Pharma
Chesnera
Legal & General

I run a concentrated portfolio (it was 15 stocks a couple of years ago, but changed on the realisation I was taking on B grade companies to make up the numbers). I target it at five holdings which is where I am.

Amerisur is the wildcard for me, but stupidly overweight and it alone is the reason the portfolio is 1.15% down for this month so far (on a bid of 26.5p for AMER).

[valentine] 19/12/2016 14:21

Buying opportunity again.. ha ha. If only they left me with such an affordable luxury. It is Xmas after all. St Stephen's day sales come early.

Wasn't it supposed to be a quid by hereabouts?

[lucyp00p] 19/12/2016 14:06

I would imagine contractual capacity will only apply to the finished article and not during these testing times. I thought I saw that there was scope to increase the 7,200 BPD top limit once the capacity issues were resolved, but, as usual with Amer I may have been dreaming.

[sleveen] 19/12/2016 13:53

At least you're not a COPL holder.

[al101uk] 19/12/2016 13:50

The last two casualties of my AMER holding:

PTSG (didn't have the funds available at 75p-ish), GSK had to top slice another stock to take an initial position half of what I wanted at £14.72. The sale was LGEN which is also up a little on the 237 selling price I achieved.

Meanwhile back in Amerisur-land, I missed the update on Friday, but having read it I'm less than impressed. I picked up the KENV results this morning via an RNS alert I still have set up and my initial thoughts are same old story, drifting timescales presented as "as expected". I question the bait and switch of the much hyped Lithium potential. I've suspected the same tactic here from time to time.

Checked in on IRON for old times sake and saw pretty much nothing.

I assume we'd have to gather over 16 million shares to have have any sway in the running of the company? My holding would be a rain drop in the ocean, throw it in the pot if you like, someone here has my email address.

On RNS frequency and whether the board have neglected their duty as regards news I cobbled this together from a couple of sites:

-----------------------------

A similar obligation is imposed on AIM companies. They must announce to the market any new developments that are not public knowledge and that, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of the company's securities.

The information needs to be specific to the company and there needs to be some certainty to it. Imprecise information, and news that is generally applicable, is not announceable; nor are conclusions or facts that can be gleaned from research or analysis, because any investor (in theory) has access to the same material.

Price sensitivity is crucial to the definition of inside information. A company must ask: would a hypothetical ‘reasonable investor’, out to maximise their own economic self-interest, be likely to use the information in making their investment decision? Information that will usually be considered relevant to a reasonable investor’s decisions includes that affecting:

the company’s assets and liabilities;
the performance of the company’s business, or expectations as to that performance;
the company’s financial condition;
the course of the company’s business;
major new developments in the company’s business;
information that has previously been disclosed to the market.

A commonly used rule of thumb is to say that a price movement of 10 per cent either way is ‘significant’ and so information that is unlikely to move the share price that much is not disclosable. But the FSA is very clear that there is no ‘10 per cent rule’ and that price movements below that threshold can still be significant in particular cases.

-------------------------------

That raises more questions than it answers, because the argument would go that if Val can find it, it's not RNS'able. Val can find anything and others here are equally adept at gathering information from various sources. Is it reasonable to expect all investors to scour foreign language sites for information?

From the RNS:

"However the daily volume transported by OBA is controlled by the performance of the overall system, for example averaging approximately 2,200BOPD over the last 4 days. Detailed engineering and costing work is underway with respect to the construction of the Chiritza pumping station within the RODA system, which will serve to increase system efficiency and Amerisur's transport quota under the agreement currently being negotiated with Petroamazonas. Throughput above current levels is dependent upon the optimisation of the system and the Company's production. Production at the year-end is expected to be similar to current levels given the delays in activity as detailed below. The Company expects a production rate of 7,200 BOPD to be achieved during Q1 2017"

Don't we have a contract with the owners of "the system" for 5K BOPD minimum? If so it appears to have been worth absolutely nothing and it's not clear to me who is costing and implementing the construction of the Chiritza pumping station? Nor why the local dispute affects the throughput? I can make guesses and assumptions, but where are the specifics in this update? What are the risks that all of this could turn out to be a very expensive white elephant. As far as I can see the company has sunk copious amounts of money, time and energy in to a project that was announced as complete to great fanfare not so long ago when in fact it is far, far from a done deal. Along side this they refer to "production constraints" intimating that 7200bopd is where we are at following the drilling so far. I'm pretty sure we were well above this figure before we hit the oil price collapse and that it was transportation and pumping station capacity that was the issue.

In any case all of this just means I'm beefing up the management risk discount on my valuation and hence reducing the level at which I will be happy to sell. If you look beyond Amerisur there is plenty of evidence of AIM-like behaviour from GC and co and it's abundantly clear why they like this market as opposed to a full listing.

Long post, but I have a lot on my mind ;-)

[eddie_yates] 19/12/2016 12:54

I'm happy to add my holding to the pot

[quidnunc] 19/12/2016 11:45

Sadly can't make the Ruby as shan't be in London till April now.
However, will keep ear to the ground and happy to throw my weight behind a new effort at achieving a collective voice....you know how to contact me.

FWIW, the company have made great strides since I first came aboard and have achieved miracles in extremely difficult circumstances. I don't doubt that much of the current hiatus is down to circumstances well beyond their control.
The Company are the people who work for us the shareholders in the oil fields of Columbia.

The Board however are a different kettle of fish. They are the people appointed to manage the Company and its business in the best interests of shareholders.
Whether they have achieved that depends on your POV.
From the POV of many here, the best interests of the board and the best interests of PI's are poles apart and its galling to see the board rewarding themselves for achieving things which, in fact, have not so far been achieved.
I think few here would be averse to shareholders rewarding them when success is achieved, however most are against them amply rewarding themselves when that is clearly not the case.
If we were to appoint an NED to the BOD and the remuneration committee then we could look to rein in greed and reward achievement in a more balanced way.

Q.

[lucyp00p] 18/12/2016 22:46

I'm keen on a Ruby and 2 or 3 pints Tony

[tonyrelaxes] 18/12/2016 16:37

beauf and 3roach

Yep. It was tried before.
We obtained support of about 22% (from memory) of shares in issue, just from this BB alone! We asked the BoD to meet a small delegation of 4.

They ducked it!

Instead we were fobbed off with the Orange Lizard - who it transpired knew less of what was happening on the ground in Colombia than we did. What he did know but didn't tell us (or, more likely didn't know until he was informed/instructed later) was of a Placing a few weeks later that diluted us by about half (again from memory).

Within this they laid a trap that several unfortunately fell for. That resulted in FSA imposed financial ruin on some with penalties well into 5 figures.

As with you, I feel it well overdue that our collective voice be heard again - strengthened with the type of professional support and advice you mention. For obvious reasons, this time, such planning had better be 'off BB' for the time being. Many here are in private contact with others here, so word can spread quite widely.

I would happily add the support of my 4 million shares and nearly that quantity again from my 'groupies'.


Food for thought at the next Ruby, also long overdue! (I'll be in UK from tomorrow for 3 weeks - anyone?)

[valentine] 18/12/2016 13:38

Don't accept any offers of being included in a placing. Haha. Once is enough.

[3roach] 18/12/2016 12:45

If I recall a similar thing was tried some years ago. Not really sure of the outcome though.

[beauf] 18/12/2016 12:27

I realize we are effectively small fry but collectively there must be a reasonable amount of shares knocking about this board. Have the great and good of this board ever discussed collective action unilaterally or via an organisation such as the UK shareholders association? They are increasingly looking at AIM listed companies. I would happily add my 2.5 million shares to such a block asking for, for example, consistent reporting practices and representation at analyst style meetings.

[3roach] 17/12/2016 15:06

Why do they put out dates, targets, figures etc knowing full well there wasn't a chance they'd be achieved. That's what p's me off the most. But then again, if they just came out and said, you'll all be old and grey by the time anything bears fruit...gotta keep people interested in the story somehow.

[valentine] 16/12/2016 21:46

I agree we are in no way culpable but but but..

Ever look at google-earth borders down that way? Putumayo river is not the border? Tribal territory stuff? Needs sorting out!

[foiledagain] 16/12/2016 21:30

But there's no comparison between the Chevron situation and Amerisur.

Chevron directly pumped over 16 billion gallons of hazardous waste into the area, knowing what they were doing.

Amerisur had no involvement in building the pipeline. Their contractors were Petroamazonas who are part of the Ecuadorian State Oil company.

All permissions were via Petroamazonas

I have not seen any statement from Amerisur suggesting they are being held to account.

[valentine] 16/12/2016 20:42

Chevron were fined $95m for pipeline transgressions in Lago agrio. Lago agrio is where we are.