Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[charlieeee] 26/9/2016 17:41

Courtesy of HUB on iii

If they get a tariff deal signed or even buy in the oil (as per recent presentation) then they could earn around $5pb to $8pb on the 42kbopd capacity assuming they use only 8kbopd themselves.

$5pb profit x 42kbopd = $76 million per year. I very much doubt that the Ecuador operations (other side of pipeline) are ready to handle 50kbopd but would guess they would do their best to accommodate 30kbopd+.

Even based on that, you are looking at $41 million on 25k x $5pb.

The pipeline's spare capacity could be put on a basic p/e of 5 and justify a market cap of $200million.

Investors also forget that the company is fully financed to drill 11 x wells in next 15 months. Some wells are set to boost production and others are set to more resources into reserves.

As an example, the likes of SOU and HUR are trading at near $500m market caps based mostly on resources and not reserves.

If AMER hit the sweet spot over the next 15 months, you could see a company sitting on...

1. Over 150mmboe in reserves
2. Cash flows of around $100mil with PoO in $40's and $200mil with PoO in $50's etc
3. No debt, $60mil in cash and rising
4. OBA rev deals
5. Production increasing to 15kbopd 2018 and 20kbopd in 2019.

I suspect some players out there would be more than happy acquiring AMER for £2+ based on that mix, especially now the Colombian region is 'free' from decades of fighting and violence.

22.5p a share? 10 bagger potential in time.... and more if PoO gets back to mid $60's.

Lots of if's and but's of course and not without risks... but the business model looks set to deliver value at long last.

HUB

[bigwavedave] 26/9/2016 16:51

Malcy needs a wider audience. Poo ticking back up, Colombia's 50-year war at an end, AMER on the eve of the elusive oleoducto news...and it drops 4%. Go figure.

[valentine] 26/9/2016 16:18

Didn't last long according g to the broker. Back to base again. Nobody expecting oil.to flow overnight, least of all me. Oct 6th is imminent at least in a short time and be closer tomorrow. When.mr correa's brother becomes the new Rex we'll know we are on a winner. Meantime who is inventing the next excuse?

[warre] 26/9/2016 16:18

....and with a composite rating as a utility.

[warre] 26/9/2016 16:16

Massive upside expected once they can put 30000 bpd of other peoples' oil through the OBA at say, $6 per barrel netback.

[royfd] 26/9/2016 15:55

Thanks Dave - very good coverage IMO, 10 x Analysts were in Colombia then, quite a gathering and their feedback should be very interesting. Malcy's enthusiastic coverage certainly lifted the gloom in this household.

[valentine] 26/9/2016 15:38

He's convinced me Dave. Tonight opening? I dunno. After midnight gmt? Or beginning October. Imminent has to be sometime soon, Shirley?

[bigwavedave] 26/9/2016 15:06

9 minutes in:

[bigwavedave] 26/9/2016 14:01

He's back at his desk. Wouldn't be surprised if GC popped over for some reflected glory though. If this were SOU they'd have a webcam set up. (Not that I am in SOU, by the way). PoO picking up.

[valentine] 26/9/2016 13:54

It'll happen when we're not looking Dave. Theyll just sneak up on one dark and stormy night. I must say there wasn't much sign of torrential rains in malcys photos. I wonder if he is in Cartagena for the.momentous occasion? GC and all the rest too?

[bigwavedave] 26/9/2016 13:39

...although (an announcement) today looking unlikely, obviously.

[bigwavedave] 26/9/2016 12:34

I guess analysts have agreed to embargo their reports until an official RNS.
Meanwhile, Malcy is still v enthusiastic. He was on vox markets today. Although admitting that "imminent" and "any day now" have been over used, he is adamant that the switch-on is happening. "It might even happen today," he says.

[valentine] 26/9/2016 12:33

Broker being kind in his pragmatic way says drop down to Saudis attitude approaching open meeting in Algeria this week. No concessions he says. Saudis want dominant market share and unlikely to cut output. His view anyway. Hope he is wrong.

[charlieeee] 26/9/2016 12:26

The analysts might have been over, but other than Malcy, their reports do not appear to have yet made it into the public domain and even he has done little more than make positive clucking sounds.

Most of us, I presume, are in "shut up and show me " mode, given that the company and its mouth pieces tell tall tales.

C

[cargton] 26/9/2016 11:59

I am really beginning to think this is some kind of massive stitch up? How can we be so close to apparently company changing news and we still have had zero +ve reaction from the markets? Even after analysts have been over?

[lucyp00p] 26/9/2016 11:28

So great news coming g, but share price is down. Must be the oil price, let me check.......nope, curses. WTF!

[meneither2] 26/9/2016 11:27

Blimey don't they realise we've already had enough of referendums over here. Yes or no again.......

[bigwavedave] 26/9/2016 11:21

Feels like...

[valentine] 26/9/2016 11:16

Al Green was a bit of seer in his day...Take me to the river, wash a me down, you take my money and my cigarettes...





Take me to the Rio Putumayo..

[rollthedice] 26/9/2016 10:35

Sp is frustrating but not surprising when BoD continually miss their own deadlines and production was lower that expected in H1. There comes a point that they'll not be taken seriously anymore. At this rate, when they finally do announce the pipeline is fully approved and operational, it'll probably be a damp squib or it'll be coming when share price is on its knees so any rise just recovers ground share price has lost.

Holding now more in hope than expectation :(

[valentine] 26/9/2016 10:28

Oh Farc indeed.. It's a conspiracy fer sure.

[bigwavedave] 26/9/2016 10:26

So much for the peace dividend. farcin' 'ell. Anyone would think Timochenko launched an assault.

[mrphiljones] 26/9/2016 10:21

If 22p breaks then where too?.......

[valentine] 26/9/2016 09:33

Deal to be signed at 1700 local time. 2200 GMT means RNS tomorrow unlikely imo. Poss Thursday but more likely 6th Oct, a Thursday, when Amer are all happy and comfortable with everything..They will do nothing now if there is even a hint of possibility Farc might renege.