Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[blackdown2] 16/9/2016 12:14

Nigeria. No thanks.

[alamaison] 16/9/2016 11:45

There is nothing wrong with AMER, lol.
This is a growing company that does everything according to the rules/plan.
We have a seller, it's obvious. I guess it's Seager Rex Harbour. We're not far off getting rid of them.
I am aiming at 34+. Perhaps waiting for the pipeline to be tested?
Check also LEK oil last RNS. We will be producing 10,000 by year end.
May be even better than AMER, lol, as we are aiming at 20,000bopd by 2017.

[eddie_yates] 16/9/2016 11:44

Dayway
What people seem to forget is the "military precision like manner" in which the technical area where the pipeline starts was acquired (re-negotiated). This was also a long drawn out process and the start of a sequence of events for which is about to bear fruit.
I agree with a certain train of thought on here that the pipeline opening is being purposely delayed to coincide with the peace agreement.

[valentine] 16/9/2016 11:38

The tune will be changed next week and many will be gigging around in delight. Re x is mistaken imo. Problems in Ecuador are not ours and being resolved with alacrity.

[dayway123] 16/9/2016 11:32

PANR making a comeback, obviously there are better plays than AMER. Just wished we had a decent BOD, I'm quite sure we'd be in a much stronger position.

[blackdown2] 16/9/2016 11:11

The key issue here is that the pipeline is a game changer and, as has been reported before, has a (significant) intrinsic value.

[kerri28] 16/9/2016 10:30

Wheres Fatgreek when you need him!

[al101uk] 16/9/2016 10:26

alamaison,

Great post, I liked that he used 9.5% discount rate after calculating it using the levered beta and using bottom up (the method I prefer, but can't be bothered to do). I've been using 10% as a best guess, so it's nice to have someone do the work and come out with a similar figure.

Not sure why he doesn't just run off the reserves rather than using a terminal value, I know that's the right way to do it, but to find the current intrinsic value I prefer to run off the reserves. Given the below it probably evens out.

There is an implied assumption on the price of oil (I'd rather he made it explicit), his analyst estimates only go out two years and he's capped future increases to 17%. I'm not sure that analysts are that bullish on oil prices over that period and so his estimates may be out by a decent percentage.

Overall though the number looks reasonably sensible, funny how two people can calculate intrinsic value using DCF with different assumptions and come up with numbers so close together.

There's is plenty of blue sky to add to that intrinsic value of course, but that's in the future.

[valentine] 16/9/2016 10:19

Maybe a Friday Bertie?? Hope so. Ollie by Monday..News blitz next week and and .. But this is the new Amer innit. Underpromise and ferged it

[alamaison] 16/9/2016 10:12

hxxps://simplywall.st/news/2016/09/16/investors-are-undervaluing-amerisur-resources-plc-aimamer-by-34-here-is-my-intrinsic-value-calculation/

[alamaison] 16/9/2016 10:05

Do not despair, here I come to the rescue;
Transaction Complete
Share Name Amerisur Resources PLC ORD 0.1P
Order Type At Best Buy
Account Trading Account
Symbol LSE:AMER
ISIN GB0032087826
Settlement Date 20-09-2016
Trade Details
Quantity 8248
Trade Price 0.24125
Trade Date 16-09-2016
Consideration £ 1,989.83
Commission £ 10.00
Total £ 1,999.83

[eddie_yates] 16/9/2016 08:34

Another 100k added @ 24.03p

[kerri28] 16/9/2016 08:07

Now now boys!

[kerri28] 16/9/2016 08:07

Here she blows

[francis55] 15/9/2016 17:38

It's a trust issue. Lack of shareholders notice pushes people away to other stocks. Look at Tullow Oil crippled with debt but 10% per week to buy and short on. We need representation at next AGM and also need to look at AIM rules re the information or lack off from board. Good company but poor communications. I'm out at 30p and off to pastures new which will probably be in 100 years.

[tonyrelaxes] 15/9/2016 17:34

The best market reaction could come from changing much of the ever increasing BoD from 'city types' to 'oil types' - or even 'investor PR types'.

[bibdaddy] 15/9/2016 17:19

..The market wont react regarding OBA until the ribbon is cut, oil is flowing and numbers are produced...too many false dawns and non starts

[tsmith2] 15/9/2016 17:05

The problem is the market, I suspect, wants to see hard numbers..

[bigwavedave] 15/9/2016 16:50

Yes, disappointing esp with good volume, mostly buys. You would've thought that the oleoducto plus a 40% increase in output would do something. Oh well, wtfdik?

[tsmith2] 15/9/2016 16:45

What's not heartening is the lack of a rise when putting out the news either distrust or seller or even both

[somnus101] 15/9/2016 15:27

Nice one Q.
SP/volume ratio today a telling indictment of stationmaster's signalling ability.

[quidnunc] 15/9/2016 14:45

Sorry Lucy, Tube strike at Nine.

"caused in part by minor social unrest in the region"

Q.

[fsawatcher] 15/9/2016 13:51

it depend on rexy boyo

if he keep sellin then amer share price goin no wheres fast

if he stop sellin - then this train goin north fast

down side look nuffin to worry about from here

this would be 30p+ if not for rexy boyo dumpin 20mil into dull market

[lucyp00p] 15/9/2016 13:15

Surely this train is about to leave the station now.