Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[gersemi] 18/1/2019 09:59

It's my divine right to assume what I like...This is being shorted. Some may disagree. Place yer bets

This is not normal price action

[paradores] 18/1/2019 09:59

RSI <50 would be a huge discount to fair value. BoD have responsibility.

Think a bid approach could be imminent. Yes, likely rejected but we're heading into an end game which may not please all with 70p-£1 ambitions.

[nicksig] 18/1/2019 09:53

Why is it that if someone sells some stock the assumption is that they are shorting? There is no evidence whatsoever to suggest that is the case

[avsome1968] 18/1/2019 09:52

Trouble is would you want to be out today can see this going back up end of play good chance we have update Monday not worth the risk for a couple of pence here and there.

[knackers] 18/1/2019 09:46

Below 17.5p I will be adding, just hope we're still down at these levels this time next week.

[knackers] 18/1/2019 09:44

More fool them gersemi... fwiw it's certainly not shorting in the aggressive sense, the spread has been too wide and that tells the story.

Right now MMs have little interest in making a market, and are happier forcing cheap sells than encouraging buys. Be in no doubt, MMs will have no problem finding homes for shares freed-up at these prices!!! They were offering 175k at 19.85 only last week! Go figure.

[avsome1968] 18/1/2019 09:43

If AMER come good end of the year anywhere near 70p range I wont be building no more houses, My winters will be spent in the sunshine with a few bottles of wine happy days certainly wouldn't risk selling news anytime.

[avsome1968] 18/1/2019 09:37

rex might be shorting stock to p0ss AMER OF LOL, happy still holding still 41%up if it drops below 17 I will be taking some more

[knackers] 18/1/2019 09:35

A cracking top-out opportunity could present itself in the next 2-3 sessions. We're close IMO as forward prospects are now all that matter and they look pretty peachy from the cheap seats. Much to look forward to.

[gersemi] 18/1/2019 09:34

175k at 17.52

this stock is being shorted for some reason

[tyler durden1] 18/1/2019 09:20

Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,

Estimates of recoverable oil are proving wildly wrong...

The Wall Street Journal did some research and they got the general point that the wells are not as good as advertised.

But what they missed is just how much farther off many of these reserves are than even the discounted reserves that they've reported.

Bottom line: if the understatement is only 10%, that’s a rounding error and it’s not that much of an issue to the average person. But I've been trying for a decade to get the number that I independently develop to get anywhere close to the published numbers. In most cases, I can only get near 60% or 70% of them. So, the gap, I think is much more substantial.

The reason that The Wall Street Journal didn’t get it more right is because they don’t do any independent research and of course they didn’t talk to me, they didn’t talk to Dave Hughes, they didn’t talk to people who actually do the work, and so they’re getting one side of the story.

[knackers] 18/1/2019 09:12

That update will come all idc ;o) like next week, question is are they still looking for a 2nd rig. IMHO; ABSOLUTELY!

Re BRENT: Nothing unexpected with this price recovery, spike down was due to massively orchestrated shorting which followed Trump's decision to grant a temp waiver on Iranian exports, causing a mini supply glut. Saudis, furious with his flip-flop, have responded by aggressively cutting exports and production. (Boot now on other foot). In short (pardon pun) Dec 2018 marked the end of peak cheap oil.

Further and again as is well documented, US Shale needs minimum $60 WTI for break-even let alone please investors. Shale industry will struggle to secure new and much needed investment to fund new production ambitions with WTI languishing in $50-60 range. The longer prices are suppressed the greater the risk of a near term supply crunch.

In short we're heading straight back to $65-75 range for BRENT. Saudis may want $80 BRENT but will need to be careful not to over do production cuts with Venezuela offline for (at least) the next 2-3 years, possibly longer, much longer...

[tsmith2] 18/1/2019 08:51

I'm expecting a v good one..

[ladeside] 18/1/2019 08:50

Looks like the excitement has moved over to Ironveld for today.

[avsome1968] 18/1/2019 08:48

A good update would clear him hopefully news next week

[gersemi] 18/1/2019 07:13

US Crude : $53
Brent Crude : $62

FTSE : +32

[tsmith2] 18/1/2019 00:49

https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/5c38bf25a650e416a9bb9dc6/amerisur-resources-cpo-5-updateCracking listen

[tradesmarter] 17/1/2019 20:57

I'll do a full technical view next week, but first line of support broken today at 18.5p. This now sets up a possible test of support at 17.55 and it should bounce from this area (at least on "first touch"). If we close below 17.5p then it's likely we retest the gap area where I'd expect MEGA support in the 16.5 area on a closing basis.For now "bull bets" are off until we get news so use the opportunity to build your positions. Its normal for shares to drift lower when expected news doesn't appear hence lower volume and profit takers together with frustration leads folk to take their profits (fair play I've done the same a few times).

When have went from being overbought and "needing a pullback" to nearly approaching oversold and buy levels, so tomorrow could be a bit volatile with the price. Keep everything in perspective we have rallied 10p and falling 1p so a tad more profit taking could be the order of the day, but 17.5p is where those not already in or wanting some action should look to "play"....For now any bounce to 19.5-20.5p likely to be the limited unless it is news generated..

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[davwal] 17/1/2019 20:08

As I recall from the original ONGC Videsh contract tender for the sale of Mariposa oil, the transport cost from the wellhead sale was to be netted off the barrel price by agreement. Therefore there are ongoing transport cost implications to the JV but they are not in the public domain.

[tom111] 17/1/2019 19:26

Thks fadilz,what not to like.

[fadilz] 17/1/2019 18:57

this interview linked from the latest AMER tweet - apologies if already poted.

Rough notes

Mariposa may be an Oil Down To - ie oil may exist down dip, but needs to be reviewed.

23% X Factor does not really make CPO-5 less profitable than Plat: Operational costs likely to be much less than Plat, natural flow, and Lifting costs likely to be $10 or less. X-Factor paid to govnt in oil. Receive payment at well head with $8 discount to brent, so no transport costs. Of the 30% working interest, they have 20% available for sale. Hence a 4500 bpd well yields 10m netback per year at $57 oil. Share of cost of well is $3m - so payback is very fast.

2 major trends of light (candelegia) and yamos 34 in guadalope (heavy) in neighbouring blocks

4 wells to expand production, reserves and resources:
Cal-1 spud before end of Jan. targeting a structure similar to indico to sw and into an adjoining structure on strike (same level but going across).
Pab real looks to other side of Indico

Oil column at Indico-l could not exist on a single fault style trapping - must be a combination trap. Combination trapping would make oil down to deeper and volumes much higher.

All 6 upcoming wells are LS3 type plays.