Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[davwal] 02/10/2017 07:56

Ten days of lost production- a third! Let's hope there can be a more settled period and the higher production per day can be maintained and developed further.

[seball] 02/10/2017 07:47

Fantastic News may need to revise my 30p per share by Christmas higher now.

[sleveen] 02/10/2017 07:43

Great result P21 , disruptions behind us.

Looking forward to an even better result from P25.

[laptop15] 02/10/2017 07:32

Current prodiction 7400 barrels....wow!!! I also see throughput was allowed over the limit again, good to see they have beem allowed this due to working with the government i guess :))

[dudleym1975] 02/10/2017 07:31

Dropping by the looks of it pre market open buy price has already dropped

[doughboy66] 02/10/2017 07:28

At these levels we are printing money 😂😂

[laptop15] 02/10/2017 07:26

Excellent news!!! 120,000 is a very good figure considering disruptions! 1000 boepd for planitillo 21 is very good result. Drill news and Mariposa news mid october!! 7400 boepd highest production and over 6000 boepd avg at present....impressive!

[doughboy66] 02/10/2017 07:25

Liking that operational update very much indeed 😊

[dave19w] 02/10/2017 07:11

Very good news indeed! Looks like we will hit that 7k BOPD with the new well online. :)

[kerri28] 02/10/2017 07:08

Excellent news!!

[laptop15] 01/10/2017 21:35

So Mariposa/CPO5 news should be out this week and it could be big!! Chart looks good showing a target of 27p in the next week or 2. The right news could see us even higher in my opinion!! GSA short has dropped or nearly gone as Amerisur not appearing to be shorted anywhere now...bodes well :)))

[bigwavedave] 01/10/2017 21:34

El Papa may have (somehow) affected OBA exports. But did he manage to impact production? Two different figures.
I am not particularly bothered - although I'd love to know why a papal visit affects oil supply - as it is already yesterday's news.

[westmoreland lad] 01/10/2017 15:34

and hopefully Santos can pull off another peace agreement with the ELN.

BBC 01--10--17 1300 hrs

Colombia's largest active rebel group, the ELN, has begun a temporary ceasefire with the authorities - for the first time in more than 50 years.

The truce began on Sunday and is set to extend until mid-January.

President Juan Manuel Santos says he hopes it will serve as a first step to achieving peace with the group.

It follows a landmark peace deal between the authorities and the much larger Farc rebel group last year, which ended five decades of conflict.

The temporary ceasefire between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the Colombian army is seen as the most important step taken since peace talks between the two sides began in neighbouring Ecuador in February.

[fadilz] 01/10/2017 15:27

jotoha2, yes the September loss of production will influence production figures and may hold us back short term. Trotting12, agree the end of month figures will give an indication of trend and be important in giving confidence (or not).

Anyone who looks at a graph from 2004 to present will see that there have been 2 or 3 periods of explosive growth. Every reason to believe that the next year or 3 will be very rewarding.

F

[bryet] 01/10/2017 14:47

Like I have said before we are only at the price we were in March then we moved up on good drilling news surely it would not be much to expect that over the next few weeks the share price would work it's way up to the level it was before the rot set in a reason for which we still don't know why.

[trotting12] 01/10/2017 14:32

It's the month end daily production that interests me , hopefully rising

[stur7672] 01/10/2017 13:34

It will be interesting to see the September production numbers as the papal visit was expected to cause some disruption however the interim results statement said there had been further disruption due to social unrest in September.

[lucyp00p] 01/10/2017 12:39

Perhaps buying more before the September production numbers may be premature......perhaps not. JW already hinted at a little Papal disruption. A slight dip would not surprise me at all.

[jotoha2] 01/10/2017 11:15

fadiz , your model looks fairly close to my calc , confirmation tomorrow of momentum and I will go in for another couple of hundred k , 36p for year end looks a bit topy but will go with your thoughts.

[fadilz] 30/9/2017 21:35

Aceuk, it has fitted observed price over the past 3 years, and provides a decision rule for AMER, which helps me at least. Also allows me to look past some of the nonsense that gets spouted here regarding conspiracies or management incompetence, etc - the usual stuff you get on BBs, though this board is better than many.

That said I agree it is a model, which is bound to break down at some point. nuff said.

Edit: this is the first time that the model differs significantly from the share price, which is why I now think we are significantly under-valued.

[aceuk] 30/9/2017 20:23

Yes models are just that - MODELS - ask a "climate scientist"!

[techtrader5] 30/9/2017 19:41

Tipped in Investors Chronicle

[fadilz] 30/9/2017 17:42

I'm sticking to my model, and predicting 36p end of year, and high 20s near term.

Below I argue that the model has held up well for the 16p share price, allowing for uncertainty about real production. The model predicts high 20s near term, and mid-30s end of year, provided 7k production materialises.

I'm assuming production costs for Plat, Plat-N, and CPO-5 to be $15, $30, $25 respectively.


$45 OIL AND 4600 BB/D PRODUCTION
---------------------------------
Area___Reserves(mb)__Barrels/day___$/bbl profit___#Years___NPV10____xBase___sp
Plat___25.0__________3600__________30_____________19_______330______0.30___18.2
Plat N_7.8___________1000__________15_____________21_______47_______0.04___2.6

Predicted share price 20.8p (=18.2+2.6)

These were the actual figures, so the real share price was 5-6p lower. But given the production outages, and lack of transparency from the company, I don't think the model is too far out - and clearly enough people are in the know to make a difference to the share price.


Looking ahead to promised year end, and let's say $50 oil


$50 OIL AND 7500 BPD PRODUCTION
--------------------------------
Area___Reserves(mb)__Barrels/day___$/bbl profit___#Years___NPV10____xBase___sp
Plat___25.0__________5000__________35_____________14_______471______0.43___25.9
Plat N__7.8___________1000_________20_____________21_______63_______0.06___3.5
CPO-5__13.4__________1500__________25_____________24_______123______0.11___6.8

Predicted share price 36.2p (=25.9+3.5+6.8)

Actually, we are not far off Plat, and Plat_N end of year targets now, so a share price in region of 28-29p should not be far off.

Let's see the monthly production figures this week, and how the share price evolves - but right now the model suggests we are very undervalued.


(to restate the model: it is based on the change in NPV compared to a fixed point in the past - in this case Aug 2014, when share price was 60p. If the NPV is 50% higher than in Aug 2014, then I expect the share price to he 50% higher also. NPV is a function of Reserves, production rate, and profit per barrel, and as the company updates on these, so the current NPV and hence the share price prediction changes. A number of other factors do affect the share price price, but this method assumes that these factors remain constant now vs Aug 2014)

[jotoha2] 30/9/2017 16:32

Breakout has not yet happened , it bounced of 22p and will have another go next week , if it breaks that then 28p next resistance !1