Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[al101uk] 17/3/2017 12:03

2017 numbers, they go from $45.7m EBITDA to $15.5m PBT, I question that too.

$30 million of Depreciation and Amortisation seems very steep to me, I guess we'll know more end of this month with the reserves report.

Their cash position as of end of 2017 on the other hand looks generous, given the assumptions they have made, I would have had it lower.

[al101uk] 17/3/2017 11:43

Don't know if Amerisur receives a discount to WTI, but I think they are underplaying 2016 results.

WTI average for the year according to the EIA was $43, they estimate $40. BOPD as of end of November was 3124 according to the Amerisur presentation mid December, they use 3000bopd.

Too much work to unpick it, but I wouldn't be surprised if that loss narrows considerably. I had them down for a small loss 2016.

Cash as of mid year was $56 million, the analysts end of year cash seems to take the entire loss for the year and reduce half year cash by that amount. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Surely the losses incurred in the first half were... ermmm... incurred in the first half!?!

There are other movements in the cash position of course, but quite a coincidence that the numbers work that way.

I have no idea how they reach 16p per share core NAV, I can only imagine they don't count cash or only use P1 reserves? Assign zero value to the pipeline? Have to play with the numbers to see what they are doing.

35p could tell any number of stories, but if I were writing a note like that it's probably in the ball park of where I would feel comfortable. It's not about being accurate, it's about the direction of travel and avoiding looking like an idiot.

[al101uk] 17/3/2017 10:28

thetoonarmy2,

Thanks, but you may want to remove it once everyone has had a chance to grab a copy ;-)

"all of the assets acquired are currently in force majeure"

That handles any capex requirement than.

[moneylender] 17/3/2017 10:22

Interesting financial forecast, 3 times current estimate!!!

Dec 2016E Production 3.0mbbl/d, WTI US$40/bbl, Sales US$39.4m, EBITDA US$0.1m, PBT (US$17.9m), EPS (1.5c), Net Cash US$38.0m
Dec 2017E Production 6.0mbbl/d, WTI US$50/bbl, Sales US$106m, EBITDA US$45.7m, PBT US$15.5m, EPS 1.2c, Net Cash US$37.6m from US$42.4m

[thetoonarmy2] 17/3/2017 10:06

Its Looking tasty Mr Trotts :)

[al101uk] 17/3/2017 10:02

Anyone going to comment on it what's said?

[moneylender] 17/3/2017 10:00

Cheers Westy!

Interesting financial forecast!!

Dec 2016E Production 3.0mbbl/d, WTI US$40/bbl, Sales US$39.4m, EBITDA US$0.1m, PBT (US$17.9m), EPS (1.5c), Net Cash US$38.0m
Dec 2017E Production 6.0mbbl/d, WTI US$50/bbl, Sales US$106m, EBITDA US$45.7m, PBT US$15.5m, EPS 1.2c, Net Cash US$37.6m from US$42.4m

[westmoreland lad] 17/3/2017 09:31

Thx Toon.

Might get some money back on Niche then Curry ?

I'll mail you a copy ML.

[currypasty] 17/3/2017 08:50

cheers toon..
anyone still got some niche group, seems they are re-listing as path investments

[moneylender] 17/3/2017 08:22

Hey Toony, where's my copy?

[thetoonarmy2] 17/3/2017 08:20

Trotts / Westie /Currypasty.

Just sent you the Arden Partners buy notes :) Looking good Trotts I think our friend was right about Amer!

[glaws2] 17/3/2017 06:55

Arden has released a note with a buy recommendation - target 35p

[foiledagain] 16/3/2017 23:37

hxxps://image.slidesharecdn.com/microcapclubinvitationalnxtenergy-130122055610-phpapp02/95/microcapclub-invitational-nxt-energy-sfdv-7-638.jpg?cb=1358835187


Looks like combined Tacaho and Terecay have following, but its hard to make it out but chart was 2013 shows leads and anomalies


Tacaho
P90 =134,75MMbls
p50 = 417,25MMbls
p10 = 1,035MMbls

Terecay
P90 =235MMbls
p50 = 420.9MMbls
p10 = 1,581,20MMbls

When probabilistic Monte Carlo type evaluations are adopted, this is a statistical confidence level for an estimate.

P50 is defined as 50% of estimates exceed the P50 estimate (and by definition, 50% of estimates are less than the P50 estimate). It is a good middle estimate. Mean and Expected (same level of measure just different names) usually lie about the P40-P30 levels in oil field evaluations and are therefore high estimates. P90 and P10 are low and high estimates respectively.

P90 means 90% of the estimates exceed the P90 estimate. It does not mean that the estimate has a 90% chance of occurring – that is a very different concept.
The central limit theorem indicates that the P50 estimate has more chance of occurring than the P90 and P10 estimates.

[foiledagain] 16/3/2017 23:33

PUT 9 Block: This block was awarded to a joint venture formed by Meta (60%) and Talisman (40%). This block is a Type 1 E&P block with an area of 49,150 hectares. It is located to the west of the CAG 5 Block and the company's Terecay E&P Blocks and 60 km to the south of the Topoyaco Block. During the 36 months of the first exploration phase, the joint venture will invest US $15.1 million in the acquisition of 200 km of 2D seismic and 1 exploratory well. The block carries an additional royalty of 18%. The company expects to find new production opportunities similar to those identified in the surrounding blocks in the area, bearing in mind that there are several oil producing wells in this block in a previously identified structure.

Petroleumworld.com 11 14 07

announced the company has executed a Letter of Intent for the acquisition of an interest in the Mecaya 1 oil discovery in Colombia. This acquisition is the result of a two year search to evaluate suitable development projects in Colombia, one of the most active exploration areas in Latin America.

Under the terms of the Letter of Intent, Avalon will acquire a 15% interest in the 74,000 acre Mecaya Block in Colombia. This concession contains the Mecaya 1 oil discovery and two other wells which have tested oil. Avalon’s acquisition further benefits from its qualification for the highly favorable National Hydrocarbon Agency (ANH) fiscal terms. The Mecaya 1 well was drilled by the Colombian National Oil Company, Ecopetrol, in 1989. It tested approximately 665 BOPD (barrels of oil per day) of 27 ° API oil, with no water from a sand reservoir at approximately 7,200 feet.

Mecaya Discovery

The Mecaya discovery is offset by the Caiman 3 well located 1.6 kilometers to the west, which tested 38 BOPD of 25 ° API oil from a separate sand reservoir. The consortium holding this block plans to reenter the Mecaya 1 well and place it on long term production test within six months to establish a stable production rate and assess the size of the oil accumulation. While the full extent of the Mecaya discovery is not known at this time, based upon the existing seismic data it is believed to range from 3 to 10 million barrels of recoverable oil.

[quidnunc] 16/3/2017 22:23

It wouldn't take much to punch clear of this downtrendDepends if the secret seller has finally sold up or is just taking a breather to let so recover back into a more comfortable zoneDepends too on the narrative. The acquisition is useful long term and fills in gaps but is very much Jam tomorrow in terms of its contribution What would help would be some clarity on current production, logjams and drilling as well as clarity on the political solutions and their effects at ground zero. If it is a bit of glitzy ribbon to make marketing the business more attractive, it should certainly work I guess, yet again, the AGM is the place to go for answers. I still feel JW will stay with the business if it is sold and GC would be off the stumps and into the dressing room pretty smartly. Q

[bigwavedave] 16/3/2017 20:56

£1 by Christmas!

[big_brown_bare] 16/3/2017 19:27

Big7ime, apologies I got you mixed up with the other idiots.

This is a buy as I said yesterday!

[moneylender] 16/3/2017 18:25

Trotts he wont get £5/share this year!

[trotting12] 16/3/2017 18:22

If the plan is to sell amer in the next year ,,,no placeing

[moneylender] 16/3/2017 18:15

From the Company!

Cash of $51m as at 30 June 2016
• Competitively priced RBL undrawn - $60m available

[moneylender] 16/3/2017 18:07

With $50 million in cash in the bank, I dont think so!

Giles will farm out a lot of that acerage and get close to FREE carry's

watch this space

[foiledagain] 16/3/2017 17:53

The acquisition cost has been paid cash but what about cost to develop it.

I agree it's better to use own cash flow or facility rather than placing but history does show front running to a low share price before a placing is not unknown

[lucyp00p] 16/3/2017 17:31

It's only $5million

[moneylender] 16/3/2017 17:26

Why would we need a placing??? we have over $50M cash with a facillity of $60M, unused.

from the latest financials

Financial
 Successfully raised net proceeds of approximately $35 million through a share placing to fund growth
 As a result of the lower oil price environment and the planned reduction in production:
o Revenue of US$24.4 million (H1 2015: US$40.3 million)
o Operating cash flow for the period of -US$0.4 million (H1 2015: US$8.1 million)
o Non-cash amortisation charge reduced to $4.4 million caused by a technical increase in
reserves
o Operating loss of US$7.2 million (H1 2015: Loss of US$6.5 million)
o Loss before tax US$6.8 million (H1 2015: Loss of US$5.8 million)
 Cash position at period end is US$56.1 million with no debt