Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[marnewton] 13/3/2017 13:21

Well done al, I hope this thread takes off.

Unfortunately, too many in the past have been emotionally wedded to the other completely out of date offering...AMER needs new life breathing into it, this may help...

M

[yufff] 13/3/2017 13:13

Hi ML HIW ARE THINGS
REMEMBER THE DAYS WHEN YOU GELD AROUND 5 mill of these beauties

[yufff] 13/3/2017 13:11

Best of luck ML

Hope you're ok Val

This seems to be out of favour for now but no idea why
A really well run company is Amer.

[valentine] 13/3/2017 13:05

Good luck Money. It worked for you before. See you at the AGM? They should have some answers then; usually do. Eight weeks away approx

[moneylender] 13/3/2017 12:30

bought in again! Am I mad or what?

[moneylender] 13/3/2017 12:29

New thread and I have taken a dip in again. Cant believe I have them @ 20p again, any reason for this recent drop, I always thought GC was looking to sell this.

[al101uk] 13/3/2017 12:22

New thread if people want to move, if now it can die.

[marnewton] 13/3/2017 11:59

I'm not buying without some evidence of a reversal...see previous posts.

M

[valentine] 13/3/2017 11:57

I recall when can victor fromportugal posted frequently news was always round the corner. Maybe we have a relative on the BB now?

[al101uk] 13/3/2017 11:46

Finance & Profile
Cash balance End of FY 2018, $44.1
Operating profit $11 million
2P Reserves: 25.59 mmboe
Operating Netback Per Barrel: $43/bbl @ $65 oil

Assets:
Platanillo - Mature field expected to produce 3K to 4K bopd
CPO-5 - 30% owned by Amerisur; Mariposa-1 & Indico-1 producing 5.7Kbopd
OBA Pipeline - 18,000 BOPD pumping capacity, contracted minimum volume 9,000 BOPD.
Farm Out for 50% - Carried for a total cost of $95 million on Putumayo-9, Terecay, Tacacho & Mecaya.
100% owned - several other undeveloped fields in the Platanillo area.

Sold for $242 million January 2020.

[kev0856153] 13/3/2017 11:41

wow I dodged a bullet here. I nearly got sucked in with all the optimism at over 30p when the pipeline was opened. I really appreciate the more measured postings by al101uk. Now I can buy in at 30% cheaper but do I want to?

[bibdaddy] 13/3/2017 11:09

Charlieeee
Bibdaddy, we are in 2017 and so on the most favorable interpretation "last year" is 2016 and at no stage was AMER 65p!


My mistake I cannot believe it was 2014...still no need to patronise, it was a quick post must be so tough being perfect!

Sentiment remains-the collapse is a frustration (my initial point)

[currypasty] 13/3/2017 10:55

sold up...or in shock ?

[yufff] 13/3/2017 10:54

Crikey whats happened to the BB- used to be so full of informative posters-but now???

[vermilion1966] 13/3/2017 10:15

'At a time when energy market headlines focus mainly on OPEC cuts, observers may be forgiven for concluding that a supply crunch and higher prices are imminent. On the contrary, there is still too much oil in global markets. In this context, OPEC production cuts (which notably fall short of the original target envisaged by the organization) appear to serve mainly as a psychological support to oil prices.


...there is something wrong in the numbers that circulate globally about oil supplies. And one thing is for sure: OPEC and non-OPEC cuts are not enough to re-absorb the world’s excess supply. So, unless oil demand growth rebounds to record levels in 2017, oil prices could head for another substantial fall.'

hxxps://www.belfercenter.org/publication/opecs-misleading-narrative-about-world-oil-supply

[al101uk] 13/3/2017 09:34

NPV is the standard way to value an oil company and 10% is the standard discount rate to apply. Having said that you're right that it may be harsh in a low interest environment where bonds yield next to nothing.

Debt doesn't make a great deal of difference, because if they did have debt I'd add interest charges in to the NPV. If you were pointing that out in terms of a risk to the business, apologies, and you are correct. Discount rate factors in the risk that the business will fail and the risk of Amerisur failing is much smaller given the lack of debt.

A few issues with P/E ratio for valuation, not least:

Company was loss making last year and may be barely break even this year.

Typically P/E isn't representative anyway, you'd need to calculate a more representative version of P/E which could end up with more issues than a simple NPV. You'd effectively end up calculating the the number used in the NPV by reverse engineering out of the numbers you get in a typical P/E ratio (I would at least).

In defence of NPV, the fact that it's standard is actually more useful than the numbers it produces. If everyone uses it and comes up with the same numbers given the same story... then the numbers, by definition, tell the story. You don't have to try to guess the story based on an unknown valuation method. The conversation between Fadilz and myself illustrates that perfectly.

Of course there is a difference between working out what other people think and what you think, I typically post my exploration of the market valuation and ranges of alternative narratives. I don't really need or want to have a share price that I'd sell at... they tend to have a very short shelf life anyway.

So questions:

What version of P/E ratio would you use?
What Profit would you assume/when?
What P/E would you put the company on?

and how did you decide those numbers?

[bigwavedave] 13/3/2017 09:30

Malcy's comments were a month ago when the share price was 20% higher than today. He does not get it right 100% of the time (who does?) but he is worth listening to. If I had followed up on a couple of his tips over 2015/16 I would be a happy bunny today. Having said that, I agree with you, charlie, about CAZA.

[currypasty] 13/3/2017 08:53

I think we need a new thread that can moderate idiots

[al101uk] 13/3/2017 08:51

Anyone still in touch with Monty?

[bibdaddy] 13/3/2017 08:02

Opens sub 20p..I nearly sold at 65p last year but foolish me I believed GC and his £1 plus!