Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[pogue] 21/5/2024 22:23

Re-lease ones they are going to use buy the ones they are going to use for spares. Seems a logical thought.

[grahamg8] 21/5/2024 16:49

DNA2 beginning to look perky. Following AA4 lead or start of a general re-rate? We shall have to wait and see.

[return_of_the_apeman] 20/5/2024 08:26

250k late reported buy on Friday at 17:15

[grahamg8] 18/5/2024 11:33

I agree the managers are in the dark. The H1 report said somewhere in the range of $10-60m each. They might as well have said: shareholders why don't you have guess? AA4 leases end 4/9/26 to 13/4/28 but probably of more use will be the next DNA2 plane whose lease ends on 1/10/24. So far, as has been said above, Emirates have bought the earlier DNA planes. But no doubt they will re-lease if the terms offered look attractive.

[scrwal] 16/5/2024 22:10

Emirates have been only buying back the 380s but they were not part of the refit plans. We can only wait to see what happens to the next lot when the leases expire as this will give a pointer as to what Emirates want to do as well as giving credence to terminal values.
I think the assumption about lease renewals is a best guess at what will be done differently with the refit planes and has nothing factual to back it up yet.

[clive7878] 16/5/2024 21:29

kenmitch - I would not be surprised if you were right that AA4 Managers are as much in the dark about Emirates intentions as we are. You are also right about the - the $64 question in the air at present and that will affect the share price more than anything else is - what is the value of the their planes. It has been said that Emirates may well renew the leases when they are due to expire - but how concrete is this assumption and where did this view come from.
My own view - rightly or wrongly - is that the share price is still undervalued with a 20% yield and the my optimism in 2026 whatever agreed - sale of planes / renew of lease of planes - will work out in favour of the shareholders.
Whatever happens - the A380's will be flying for many years to come.

[kenmitch] 16/5/2024 12:58

40p share price and 20% dividend is probably as low as the share price will go this year, as a dividend above 20% seems unlikely, but any share price gains above 40p could be temporary. Big question that won’t get answered for a while is the likely terminal value of their planes. Those of us who have held longer term will be getting their money back in dividends so anything above that will be a bonus.Aren’t AA4 Managers as much in the dark about Emirates intentions as we are?

[clive7878] 16/5/2024 12:48

Be really bad for shareholders if the planes were actually bought, unless it was for a really good price. Maybe better if the leases were renewed, and some dividend was still coming in - maybe lower than at present though but maybe still good.

[andyandyoj] 16/5/2024 10:24

the only reason the price has gone up is because the likelihood of them buying the planes has increased with the refit news. A lease extension is also possible, but the current trend (e.g. DNA 1 and DNA2) is that they buy them.

[clive7878] 15/5/2024 17:23

The last thing I would have thought shareholders would want is for Emirates to buy the planes themselves or there to be a bid for the Company. It would be beneficial if things carry on as they are at present with a 5% per quarter yield, as long as the the share price does not fall to wipe this out as had been happening of recent times up to a month ago.

[2wild] 15/5/2024 10:04

Flying High, up 9% in 1 month, 14% in 1 year and 163% in 3 years.

[louis brandeis] 15/5/2024 09:53

The valuation of this stock is hybrid between the DCFs of the income streams from the contractual leases and the asset values of the aircraft. As the leases come to an end the greater part of valuation switches to the asset values of the aircraft (including debt). Those forward values at lease end (sale value) are reflected in the current discount to NAV. This means the large discount to NAV is to some extent meaningless as current asset values don't mean much unless the company was sold today. In other words don't look at the discount to NAV believing you are getting something for nothing because you aren't.

[andyandyoj] 15/5/2024 09:36

This also reads across to dna2 and dna3 where the possible implications are this year and next year (selling A380s)

[andyandyoj] 15/5/2024 08:48

Also because it has four a350s at Thai which currently have poor rental terms

[my retirement fund] 15/5/2024 08:42

Why would it want to take on extra risk when you can own the risk instead?

[paulbutcher1999] 15/5/2024 08:33

Why doesn’t emerites buy the company given the insane discount and yield?

[senttothegallows] 15/5/2024 06:47

19% yield for 2 years with such a large discount to NAV price is going to move up significantly at some point hold very tight imho

[clive7878] 14/5/2024 19:29

Sure has of late firmed up the price, I not so long ago doubled up my holdings. Good to know that that leases cud will be renewed. There does appear to be renewed confidence now, so hopefully there is more mileage to come. For a long time now I have thought that the yield makes the stock ridiculously cheap.

[boystown] 14/5/2024 15:50

Retipped by Simon Thompson - Land a 19% yield with this leasing fund - who concludes...

The shares have delivered a 12.5 per cent total return since I initiated coverage a year ago (Alpha Research: ‘In the ascent for a profitable recovery’, 19 May 2023), and the investment risk looks increasing skewed to further upside. In the meantime, shareholders can earn a 19 per cent dividend yield from the 2p-a-share quarterly dividend. Buy.

[hpcg] 14/5/2024 14:48

yes pogue, a new lease would extend the A380s to end of useful life so the loans would be fully amortising this time.

[pogue] 14/5/2024 13:51

thanks for clarification

[nicholasblake] 14/5/2024 13:32

@pogue If AA4 agrees new leases they can remortgage the planes and use proceeds to pay bullets on junior debt.

[pogue] 14/5/2024 12:53

What happens to the final payment that is needed to clear the cost of the aircraft? I assume that still needs paid as the plan is to sell the aircraft to pay off the remaining loan. That will still need paid or can they extend the term?

[hpcg] 14/5/2024 12:50

I imagine leases will be at lower rates, but on the other hand Emirates defers or possibly eliminates in the new deal the make-good return clause, so perhaps it is finely balanced with regard to the quantum.

[nicholasblake] 14/5/2024 10:22

Liberum has put out buy note on back of implication from Emirates announcement that almost all of AA4’s A380s will be re-leased.