Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 20/12/2023 09:48

Nothing in that report to persuade me to sell any.
Flight activity across the globe continues to increase & I believe Emirates strategy to continue with the A380's is a correct one - they are clearly very committed to the planes given their capacity for each take-off slot.

[brynos] 20/12/2023 09:29

Confirmation from the report that Emirates will refurb four AA$ A380's to include the Premium Economy seating.

"Emirates has selected MSN 187, MSN 201, MSN 206, and MSN 208
from the Company’s A380 fleet for the retrofit programme"

This means these four aircraft will be retained by Emirates either by purchase or lease extension and utilised into the mid 2030's

[casholaa] 20/12/2023 08:28

Total net assets as of year ended 30 sept 23 £357,224,752 - circa 304m shares in issue. (page 4)

Quarterly divi hoped to remain to July 2026 when leases begin to expire - divi currently circa 1.75p per share (page 5)

By my notes ex-dix 4th of Jan (no idea if this is correct)

Based on previous figures on Yahoo trailing p/e 2.51 & mr quarter p/b 0.38

[lord gnome] 20/12/2023 07:55

Dig down into the statement and they seem quite bullish about the end of lease value of their A380s. More compulsory redemptions are on the cards as well, with grossed up values. Income will drop after 2026 as aircraft come off lease, but capital values should rise.

[gary1966] 20/12/2023 07:49

Yes but why do they have to make it so awkward to see them?! Tried copy and pasting the link they gave but to no avail. Why not just put the info in the RNS?

[eeza] 20/12/2023 07:05

RNS - Interims

[hpcg] 18/12/2023 12:44

Video item from CNBC about the return of the A380. CNBC, so you already know more ... Skip to 11 minutes to get to the very short relevant current / future segment.

[brynos] 18/12/2023 09:30

An update on the in storage Emirates A380's owned by AA4

A6-EOX Operated DXB (Dubai) - BHX (Birmingham UK) as EK39 | Return to service on 1/12/2023 and has subsequently continued flying on a daily basis.

A6-EOQ last flew on 14/3/2023 DWC to DXB but has not flown operationally since.

So as of today, all the A380's owned by AA4 are in operational service except for A6-EOQ.

[lord gnome] 10/12/2023 11:26

Scheduled for Tuesday 12th according to Stocko.

[eeza] 10/12/2023 07:53

Interims were 14 Dec last year.

[andyandyoj] 06/12/2023 12:27

For the people who have held this (and Dna) it has not been a bad year


hxxps://ifamagazine.com/top-performing-investment-sectors-in-2023/

[clive7878] 04/12/2023 22:13

It is true that the travel industry is taking off, although how does one value a A380, as it is not quoted in Parkers car guide, because there is hardly any for sale and the demand would be very limited, unlike the Ford Focus.
Although it does look like the asset value is ahead of the debt to pay back, and AA4 should be lowering the debt year on year - at least to 2026 when income may change. To 2026 the share price and dividends are safe at current levels, when a review of figures should take place.

[retirementfund] 04/12/2023 21:53

Firstly the accounts were audited so I suspect carrying values are realistic. Given the ever growing travel industry at this time the future is very bright for AA4. Imho

[eeza] 04/12/2023 21:09

It'll all dissipate as soon as the share price moves up.

[hpcg] 04/12/2023 19:50

By my modelling returns are decent even if the A380s get sold for the balloon payment, which appears to be the case at the moment. I honestly think this is far too low, especially for the two with reduced flying hours. Discounting makes it difficult to tell precisely; obviously a higher discount rate reduces the value of future dividends, but it ought to increase residual values as the cost of new aircraft increases.

Essentially residuals on the twin engine planes covers the equity at current share price (discounted to original lease expiry), very obviously estimated, and the predicted dividends discounted are upside. A move back to 2p would be upside. There are multiple ways of looking at it - I looked through every publication across the history of the company for the figures for the various methods. Try tracking the movement of equity, for example, and one can see that the value originally estimated for the residuals of the Emirates A380s has already been destroyed with the share price where it is, it doesn't get destroyed again. Indeed with each airframe within its own non-recourse company there is no downside even on the junior loan.

So I am extremely comfortable with my position here, the comfort that only a look at the numbers multiple ways can provide.

[pigeonfeeder] 04/12/2023 19:19

Candid Investor,

By all means read Carcosa’s analysis. However it seems to me that Carcosa doesn’t understand the basis of the £1.16bn valuation of the aircraft in the accounts and why it is so different to the market value of the aircraft. The difference of £1bn which seems to concern Carcosa is irrelevant.

[clive7878] 04/12/2023 15:24

Good news is the dividend, and income and costs are stable,
but could the share price now tread water?
Emirates seem to have got it right, more premium economy seating,
bigger aircraft, more revenue per flight and profit,
especially as the market is now picking up.

[garbetklb] 04/12/2023 13:11

Candid Investor

RNS 19/11/19 was Emirates seeking agreement (which AA4 granted) to modify aircraft 201/A6-EOQ & 208/A6-EOX to include Premium Economy seating. These were the 2 aircraft where reintroduction was delayed - presumably / maybe because they were undergoing modification.

I'd definitely read Carcosa's post - look at post 828 in this thread & follow the link to Lemon Fool.

I bought a small position - and rapidly sold when I realised that I didn't understand the residual value aspect nor the paying down of debt.

[andyandyoj] 04/12/2023 12:32

Two other things that may offer interest:
1. The contract for looking after the landing gear for the next 10 years is for 116 aircraft. Pretty sure that will include all the AA4 ones. So while only 67 get fitted with the new product it looks like the plan is to have 116 flying for 10 years.
2. The most reliable estimates I have seen predict a $16m cash surplus per year for the next 3 years. I think this will give some security re the balloon payments. I also understand from some of the statements that part of the “overpay”; from Thai pay by the hour has gone towards unforeseen debt repayment.
The main commentators (institutional) seem pretty comfortable on releasing the necessary cash.
@candid re the unlocking value - fully agree - either a worry or a nice upside potential. Given the moves they have made in the last two years (ditch Doric, new Board member, share buy backs) my money is (literally) backing them to release value rather than as a problem.

[candid investor] 04/12/2023 00:48

The one comment that I missed out , was the statement made in the last fact sheet...where the board said that their primary focus is on finding the best way , to unlock the shareholder value, that they know exists within the company ..

That suggests to me , they haven't yet done so , which if true is a major worry , or a key uncertainty, depending upon how you view it .

[candid investor] 04/12/2023 00:36

Andy , I agree with everything you have said ...I am a contrarian investor so try to moderate my views so as not to either get carried away , which many investors do , and then put down those with opposing views , conversely, i dont want to find myself mired in despair...both are difficult to avoid .
.
A couple of things I would like to throw into the mix ..

1. A380's super economy refit ...I would love to know how many, if any , relate to our aircraft ..Lord Gnome seems to think two but he couldn't remember the source ..I think the future is definitely secure for any A380 which has been refitted

2. The I.C. drew attention to the fact that the Emirates agreeing a 10-12 year extension for AA4 A380's was almost a nailed on certainty .. if this happens , even on less favourable terms than as at present , the outlook will improve immensely.. if it doesn't , the dividend dies, and the share price sinks , because, to my knowledge, there is no plan B. . The revenue from the Thai aircraft barely recovers the financing cost .

3. Our aircraft serve as collateral for the bank loans taken out on them ...the banks therefore effectively own our assets, which is again why I am so keen to establish what happens if the Emirates return the aircraft

Does anyone know ? Or like me are you crossing your fingers and hoping for the best ..

PS I haven't read or seen Carcosa's analysis so any link to it would be appreciated .