Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 30/12/2023 12:04

I calculated returns with nil value for the A380s at current lease end and returns are still decent. People neglect the other aircraft and fixate on the A380s. Admittedly that is where the significant potential upside is, but as I say returns are much better than cash even without that, by my calculation at least.

[btgman] 29/12/2023 23:38

Some interesting comments above, I would not the following:-

By the time the leases expire in 3 years time we will have depreciated the assets by a circa 360m

Loans will have reduced by circa 300m

Current NAV is circa 3 times the current share price

In the December 2023 report the directors did not feel there was any need for any impairment write down.

If you take you dividend for the next 3 years you will have had circa 50% of the share price back.

Given the current travel environment there is a high probability for leases to be extended

This isn't without risk nothing is but the likely outcome is skewed very much to the positive

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[scrwal] 29/12/2023 22:00

The Chairman stated in the interims that "In respect of the first option, the Company currently pays a quarterly dividend of 1.75 pence per share. We expect to be
able to continue to pay a dividend of at least this amount until July 2026 after which the Company’s leases start to expire. The rate of dividend is therefore likely to decline significantly after that date but will depend on the circumstances existing
at that time."

[clive7878] 29/12/2023 19:21

They did say that the 737 max may have bolt problems. A380s are a dream.
Next ex divi date is due for 11 Jan. - to pay on 31 Jan.
Any known confimed change in real asset value - which currently the valuation is speculation - may not take place until 2026 , so the current dividend cud be paid for a while yet.
The problem I see though the share price could remain flat in the mean time. Last ex dividend we lost more in share price than was paid in dividend.

[candid investor] 29/12/2023 10:49

So many grammatical errors in my last post, and missed punctuations .. no question marks after my questions etc ..I apologise for that. It's the post Christmas hangover effect .

Hopefully you will get the gist of what I have written

[candid investor] 29/12/2023 10:45

Lord Gnome . I read the whole report and didn't quite see it in the same bullish terms that you seem to do
1. They will only make compulsory redemptions as and when they sell aircraft ..hasn't the second hand market collapsed
2. If they sell to Emirates. probably at a large discount ...implications would be that lenders would take repossession of aircraft when lease receipts were sufficient to cover proceeds and reduced lease income
3. Could they insist that dividend payments are stopped to ensure they recover as much of the debt as possible
4. Currently asset values are less than the loans taken out on them..this is purely because of the asset in use of the Emirates planes value are much higher than the resale value ..

None of the options they listed in the Executive summary are either too risky , or not really an option at present

After due consideration of these factors I sold half of my investment this morning and swallowed the loss

I will keep the other 50% on the table in case I am wrong , which could mean that I recover the losses on the other 50 per cent and

[mattjos] 28/12/2023 20:32

As & when interest rates start to fall in Q1 '24, this should find its way to the front of the queue, given its yield.
I'd far rather fly in an A380 than a wonky 737

[fram7] 22/12/2023 19:38

That was me....I overpaid!!! But still a believer the share could go much higher.

[clive7878] 22/12/2023 15:39

It is a blue day - today majority buys !

[clive7878] 21/12/2023 20:32

I believe that a certain percentage of the stock is tightly held by a number of fund managers, that why this time around when on Wednesday there was a certain amount of selling the price did not move downwards to much. Today the rush of selling did not happen so the share price stablised again. I would not expect the bid price to go under 41.5p, in fact today it was around 42.5p so no real damage done.

The problem with the share price which was around 47p a couple of months ago before ex-dividend, I can't
see a reason why it should go above 49p for several months even all of next year, so we only have the good dividend to look forward to.

[casholaa] 21/12/2023 15:34

With other brokers, I've had other buy orders not filled with my broker/dealer even at the buy price. Fill or Kill usually helps. My understanding is that If you're buying at 50p per share, the broker/dealer picks them up for 49.70-49.90 and gives them to you for 50p per share thereby profiting from the share price flip & any dealing fee. I also find that a buy order usually goes unfilled on a small order for an illiquid share.

[cousinit] 21/12/2023 15:31

Have had occasional executions with HL. Not always clear 'how' - instinct has been that they have managed to 'cross' stock from an opposing client trade and both sit inside the best external spread.

Others are no panacea, especially with illiquid stocks. I see executions at better levels than my orders and check only to find mine is still sitting there unfilled! Seems that they get filled when someone wants to execute in quantities higher than MMs are prepared to take and they are unwilling to wait and gently 'work' the rump.

[clive7878] 21/12/2023 15:26

Offer price at 12.35 was around 42.5p.
the 41.55 was for a sell.
I believe that the share price will now firm up,
as buyers now come in.

[hpcg] 21/12/2023 15:02

fram7 - my experience with HL in these situations has been exactly that, it never happens.

[fram7] 21/12/2023 14:43

I am using H&L....I like them but there are not good for this type of transactions

[my retirement fund] 21/12/2023 14:23

Simply because execution only brokers won't stack your order on the sets system

[cassini] 21/12/2023 13:21

There's your answer!

[fram7] 21/12/2023 13:14

I see decent volumes today but do not understand why my buy order at 42 is not going through. on LSE data I see orders going through lower prices than my offer.
For example 50.000 when through at 12.35 at 41.55!!!
Should I just raise the price to 42.50 or be patient?

[my retirement fund] 21/12/2023 12:53

The level of refitting some of these A380s are getting these days is astonishing. The demand for premium reclining spacious individual seats shows no sign of slowing, and the value-added services for those passengers can be very lucrative.

[casholaa] 21/12/2023 11:05

I can't recall how often aircraft are re-branded to the airline, but it can't be cheap. Ideally there would be another interested party for Emirates to compete against.

[clive7878] 20/12/2023 19:55

Last time it went ex-dividend the share price fell more than the dividend but it can't keep on doing this otherwise in 2 years time the share price would be 28p.
Believe ex- dividend date is 12th Jan payable on 31st.
The $64 question is what will the real asset be in 2 years time, & what would the Emerites be willing to pay for the a380's.
Share trading cud be quite interesting tomorrow as sheep follow sheep, & more selling cud happen, even though he 1.75p should still be paid for the next 8 quarters

[fram7] 20/12/2023 12:30

Would be a shame to miss the next div....

[fram7] 20/12/2023 12:26

What buy price should I try today? I can see 43 on the LSE but perhaps I can try to place a speculative order at 42.50?

[andyandyoj] 20/12/2023 10:21

It may well be that later we see some off books buys that are keeping the price propped up but they have not shown up. But yes selling is trendy today! For me I liked their honesty in the report and I expect more cash to be returned in chunks as they resolve the options they set out. With the yield to support it fits what I’m after still

[11_percent] 20/12/2023 10:15

So......why all the selling.