Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 13/3/2024 13:06

I've reduced as there are several better opportunites in my investing universe. I am keeping my stock outside of tax shelters so as to swap income for a (likely) capital loss. Boeing inability to produce planes must be good for valuations of all our aircraft though. I'm having to juggle some large current and future gains so I don't think I'm representative.

[bandit99] 13/3/2024 10:18

Boeing reporting more new build delays.

Friends have recently had long delays at Gatwick because BA 787s have technical faults

[my retirement fund] 12/3/2024 19:02

Someone's getting out!

[clive7878] 11/3/2024 10:44

Logic says that the dividend cannot keep be being wiped out by the fall in share price. In 2026 the need for the A380's will still be very much in demand what the deal will be then one has to wait and see, but a near 20% dividend - wow!.

I'd rather be flying on a A380, than a 737 Max which I understand Ryan Air has ordered another something like 57 planes.

Strange investors are selling - 2 x 600,000 deals - with a 20% yield
Maybe they have to or have found something better which must be difficult.

[2wild] 10/3/2024 19:04

Amazing as Dividend hiked twice from 1.5p to 2p now, paid every 13 weeks

5 x 2p Ex Dividend in next 13 months, returning 24% on 40.5p share price Followed by 19.7% pa thereafter.

[my retirement fund] 06/3/2024 21:56

New lows 1-2 years, who'd have thought?

[hpcg] 04/3/2024 15:52

As an aside, interesting comments on premium economy. I've never flown Emirates, but I do know they were the first airline to put 10 across on a 777 so his words about gilding the lily in economy seem wide of the mark. US airlines (well Continental at least) might have been lazy about their premium product being just a deeper pitch economy but BA and Virgin both put in completely different and separate cabins with 8 across on a 777 / 747 / A340. He would perhaps be nearer the mark about the A380, but then all the cabins on all the airlines are better than their 777 / A350 equivalent with only first under the nose of a 747, or business top deck of a 747 as good. Air New Zealand even had half a top deck with premium economy and a couple of rows of business.

[rambutan2] 04/3/2024 15:30

Some brief, but interesting snippets from Sir Tim Clark from last thurs:

1)

2)

Also



My take is that all this just reinforces the view that Emirates need our A380s more than ever - for the forseeable future they have no alternative which fits their model. So, all that really matters is how good a negotiator our manager is and what deal it can strike with Emirates as leases expire. What happens in the greater A380 mkt, so to speak, is of lesser importance, as Emirates will want to stick with the planes they know, are already kitted out correctly etc etc

In the meantime, we know there should be another 18p of divs to come. And the two 777s never get a mention. And the manager seemed quite upbeat about Thai and the A350s in the recent webcast. So that's quite a lot for the current mkt cap imho.

[clive7878] 02/3/2024 10:37

Advfn are not getting the buys and sells correct on the Trade screen.
The 40.3899 are buys and the 40.11 are sells.

[clive7878] 01/3/2024 11:34

Over the next 2 years we should be receiving a dividend of 16p. Even if the share price fell to 24p - which would then be quite silly - we would still at least be breaking even.

The dividend paid over the last 3 periods has been wiped out by the fall in share price though, but one would imagine this should not be continuing.

[fram7] 28/2/2024 12:58

I will need to do a proper analysis of NPV. Anyone keen to do it? But I am quite surprised the price is down. A380 values are materially up and I am betting for good reasons that leases will be extended.
No doubt the NAV on the company accounts is overstated but shares are at 40 not 100!
For the next 2.5-3 years income and dividends are safe at 20%.
It is a finely traded stock so price can have random movements.
If bought now net of dividends the share cost will be under 20p. I need to do some calculations but I fell the value of the longer leases and remaining planes to sell will justify a valuation much higher than 20p.
The team behind Amedeo is very experienced and doing the calculation of loan repayments is not rocket science plus the lender would monitor this closely and would not allow pay out of cash if this would impact them. Yes lenders have blocked a large pot of cash but this make me confident there are reserves in case things goes very wrong. Good luck to all of us....

[clive7878] 28/2/2024 12:25

Continual drift in share price making the yield even better - but also wiping out the dividend payment.

[apollocreed1] 28/2/2024 04:15

I think that the aircraft are now worth a lot more due to lack of supply. Boeing is restricted to not making more than 37 aircraft per month until the FAA is assured that they have sorted out their problems

[clive7878] 27/2/2024 18:49

Hopefully going forward the share price now being 41p having fallen from 47,
will be held up by the percentage dividend now being paid, as the last 3 dividends have been wiped out by the fall in share price. Hopefully the share price has now bottomed out.

For those who are not flying A380's, I was a bit concerned to hear that Ryan Air - who recently said that fares could go up by 10% due to the delay in buying new planes - have 57 number on order of Boeing 737 Max's. Presumably Boeing have now sorted out the software problem and the doors falling off. Not that I have flown Ryan Air.
I have flown on a A380 which was a dream flight. But on saying that I have also flown on a A737 but not a Max as far as I was aware. One of the ones that did crash had left Kunming in China where I have also flown out of, and where my wife came from.

[clive7878] 23/2/2024 11:24

The trades at 40.94 are all buys in thin trading.
The selling price is 40.51p

[hpcg] 21/2/2024 14:46

There has been a buyer for the last few days at least picking up shares at or below 41.25, so it will have been a worked deal consummated this morning.

[clive7878] 21/2/2024 12:20

My guess at 41.25p - for 1st trade of the day - that was a buy, as the range should have been 41.25/41/06,
but the price still keeps waning.

Actually price now 12.30 is 40.6p / 41.50p due to a test sell / buy I have done.

The only good news is for traders buying the yield is getting even better.
But then with the A380's still being wanted together with the yield the stock should be firming up,
and not waning.

[fram7] 21/2/2024 10:17

over 500.000£...wasn't me!!! looks like a buy order but someone must have sold! very good to see good volumes going through

[hpcg] 21/2/2024 09:04

That can only have been a buy.

[panshanger1] 21/2/2024 08:51

Big line gone through

[brynos] 19/2/2024 20:54

I don't know if anyone on here has been following the story of Global Airlines hxxps://www.globalairlines.com/
My post is not intended to start a discussion on the merits of this airline, as there is quite enough online as it is.

What I wanted to draw the thread's attention to is that an A380 which was a former China Airlines aircraft serial number MSN120 has been bought by Global Airlines and has recently made some test flights in preparation for being brought out of storage.

See the flights on flightradar24 here hxxps://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/9h-globl# Be quick though as they can only be viewed for 7 days unless you have a premium account.

Maybe, just maybe, if Global, and it's proposal, can become successful and there is a long way to go, there will be a real second hand market for the A380.

I shall follow with interest but I am not holding my breath.

[2wild] 16/2/2024 19:19

Airbus recently announced they expected to deliver 300 planes this year. Down on previous 326 estimate. Delivery delays keep getting longer. Plus all the problems at boeing should Translate into high residual values for Aa4 planes in 2026.

[hpcg] 15/2/2024 09:22

The equity invested in the planes has done fine. It was $79mn/$264mn on the first couple of A380, $23m/$173mn on the 777 and I didn't bother looking up the A350. The money was raised at a quid though, so no, at this point equity investors are struggling. That was all the pandemic though and nothing conceptual; it was a bigger risk than they though and one of those risk hit. Mind you I haven't added up past returns because I could not care less.

[fram7] 15/2/2024 08:47

thank you for the insight. Are you saying that the cash originally paid by investors has been wasted and there is no chance that the sale of the planes net of outstanding debt will leave much left? Its a simple matter to calculate the NPV of cash flow to estimate the share value. we know we have a nearly guarantee dividend return of about 20p/50% of current share price. but if the shares will end up at nearly 0, in case no leases are renewed and no cash is left in the company, does not look good for equity investors!