Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[clive7878] 03/12/2023 21:22

Hargreaves Langdon has estimated NAVIGATION down as 125.45p ?

[andyandyoj] 03/12/2023 09:42

My impression is the market is not liquid - but it exists - it is really only Emirates though. So there is only one buyer, but it is in their interest to agree a “fair” deal for both parties. Where the sides have had too rigid an approach neither side has won (as in the case of SQ airlines and their lessors which resulted in no on sale from Dr Peters). But for both parties a fair deal saves time and money and stress. The bottom seems to have been set at $35m per aircraft (A380) and I am estimating a range of between 35 and 45m depending on aircraft state (is it still flying etc). The 777s have a liquid market and the A350s would fly off the shelves. I’m not sure if the distinction of illiquid v existing works for you but it’s my reading. I thought a lot of Carcosa’s analysis was very good on the dna fleet but I think his hypothesis was based on a lower valuation than is being achieved. And that was a pretty good assumption which at least an even chance of happening. As it turns out the valuation has turned higher for now so the values seem to me to be higher than his forecast. That could change again downwards (Gaza, oil, pandemic etc) but my expected value is now higher than it was. The challenge for me is havinga thesis but trying to always stay sceptical and avoid confirmation bias. Superficially the numbers are good here but the risk is quite high. My “expected̶1; investment outcome remains highly positive if far from risk free.

[skyship] 03/12/2023 08:10

A reminder from earlier. See end of P.1:

[candid investor] 03/12/2023 02:19

Thanks for your comments Andy in clearing that matter up , and I had previously read the link you posted ...I also read their 2023 Annual report , I am a qualified accountant ...but companies only disclose the information set out in IFRS...and what isn't disclosed is as (if not more) useful than what is disclosed . It is a delicate tightrope though, because they don't want to precipitate a fall in the share price unduly if they can avoid it

The questions I asked , can't be obtained from their annual report ..

The comment which spooked me in their last release was the declaration that the market was NOT liquid , indicating that sales of aircraft would unlikely to be possible in the short term , hence me wanting to know what options they would have in that eventuality .

[clive7878] 02/12/2023 20:42

The debt is x now, but they should be cutting this down year on year,so the debt should be reducing.
This is a long term investment although the only current concern is theat the share price could stagnate in the short term. How much can it drift though with a 16% dividend looking on the black side?

[andyandyoj] 02/12/2023 05:35

hxxps://simpleflying.com/emirates-ceo-buy-more-airbus-a380s-right-price/

[andyandyoj] 01/12/2023 13:55

Not really interested to hear the information you are after thanks @candid. But good luck on your other investments

[rimau1] 01/12/2023 13:37

If that is your most likely outcome any rationale person would sell. It happens to be my least likely outcome so i buy and we make a market. You should try to understand aircraft leasing and the debt and income payment profiles, it helps. I think you want definitive answers on aircraft valuations in 3 years time and a guarantee on emirates intentions in 3 years time and unfortunately this is not possible so we use forecasts based on invomplete information.

[candid investor] 01/12/2023 13:04

Which article are you referring to ? Is it the Investor Chronicle article ..
If so this article is talking about what MIGHT , happen , that's the same as relying on the roulette wheel landing on red ..do we want to gamble our stake on red ?

I am only interested in what IS happening ..as things stand the six cash cow A380s have a finite lease expiring within a couple of years , and the remaining aircraft are largely only recovering cost of debt ..

In my mind , what is the most LIKELY outcome , the dividend is cut or eliminated to ensure the lender gets their loan repaid , and we get a reduced return on our capital

Might be wrong , I have been before and I hope I am again , but like I said , even though the yield is attractive , the share price continues to fall further ..almost in a never ending spiral of decline in line with the expiry rate of the leases

That was a quick outline of the numbers , maybe if I was able to do a deep dive my opinion might be different , but I don't think that the information I need is in the public domain

I am happy to spell out the information I need separately if people would like to hear that ...

[scrwal] 01/12/2023 12:54

The A350s are leased to 2035 x3 2036 x1.

[hpcg] 01/12/2023 10:08

2x 777ER as well.

The world is desperately short of large airframes. Irrespective of business traffic premium cabins are full. This is a function of a large global middle class including the comfortably retired. Once one has travelled long haul with a flat bed it is difficult to go back. We talk about the A380s a lot because of perceived demand there. IMO One World really needs to beef up its UK-Doha capacity, and potentially increase capacity to Muscat now that Oman has joined. Between BA and Qatar they serve 72 and 80 countries respectively with twice the number of destination. I am contradicting Akbar Al Baker here, but I just don't agree with him that A350s then 777-9 will in any way do the job for capacity constrained hubs that generate traffic.

[rimau1] 01/12/2023 08:56

A350's Candid, read the article!!!!

[cousinit] 01/12/2023 08:36

Candid, the main difference compared to your summary relates to the four A350s.

These are potentially leased into the mid 2030s and the leaases are currently below market rates (but will revert to market rates in a few years if they stay with Thai as they come out of the rehabilitation process).

So that operational income stream should be growing and more sustained (although the Board have said that they would consider selling them at the right price).

[eeza] 30/11/2023 12:48

MM won't be taking these into his satchel - they are destined for a new home.

[eeza] 30/11/2023 12:46

Seller's holding being washed through.

[clive7878] 30/11/2023 12:41

MM sensitive to sells of 209k 100k & 2 x 50k - drift in share price

[clive7878] 29/11/2023 15:33

Maybe we will get a spike in share price in January.
The problem is in the next 2 years the income from leasing should be as known now,
as well as the prospective dividend of 1.75p per quarter
both of which should remain unchanged,
so that leaves the speculation from 2026,
of any changes after 2026 of income and dividend going forward from then.
Also speculation of of what the share price will be in 2026,
which also may depend on what is thought the asset value is at the time and will be going forward,
which is a very unknown factor..

The passenger market for airlines is picking up which is a big plus though,
with higher fares and increased income and profits.
There is the stake of 10% by the Saudi in Heathrow Airport too,
not sure where this will lead.

[scrwal] 27/11/2023 12:30

AA4 have six 380s and two 777s leased to Emirates plus the four 350s leased to Thai.
If the leases are extended this would be for 4 380s with the two expiring in 2026 either being bought for spares or being extended - this depends if they are in a batch that is too old to extend.
The lease income will fall but so should the associated costs so the divi may not fall as far as anticipated. Also we do not know how income will be affected by the Thai leases as currently they only contribute to covering cash outflow but this should change once the new rates kick in I believe.

[hpcg] 27/11/2023 12:26

I am literally stuck on poxy little (full) 777 at LHR T5 because there aren't any buses, which wouldn't be needed if there were enough stands. Which there would be if the popular routes had decent sized aircraft on.