Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[garbetklb] 24/11/2023 11:58

Thanks Andy - v helpful as I try to build a picture overall. I'm finding it quite a compelling investment case - relatively limited downside, good upside. Depending on how Emirates manage their fleet. And, I guess, an increased chance of the A380s having some value if returned by Emirates.

[skyship] 24/11/2023 11:07

11:05 - so far today 293k bt at 43p. The tap will end at some stage...

[eeza] 24/11/2023 10:58

Looks like the MM's have been given a slug to get rid of. Again.

[andyandyoj] 24/11/2023 08:35

It’s a little hard to find. I was intrigued that Metage got someone on the Amedeo Board so started looking at Metage but the website is a little obscure.

Then I found one of the Metage guys had gone to Australia and set up Staude Capital which launched a Global Value Fund which does good write ups every month and usually mentions aa4. The owner remains London based and does a lot jointly with Metage. It looks like the fund is run by Mirabella Financial Services but then I found on Yahoo a write up which (almost) clarifies it “ This describes “Global Value Fund Limited is an open ended equity mutual fund launched Mirabella Financial Services LLP. The fund is managed by Metage Capital Limited. It invests in the public equity markets across the globe. The fund also invests in the closed ended funds. It invests in the value stocks of companies. The fund employs a combination of both fundamental and quantitative analysis to create its portfolio. Global Value Fund Limited was launched in July 2014 and is domiciled in Australia.”

So it is a bit of a detective story, but my conclusion is that ultimately there is a very strong alignment between Metage and Staude and the Value Fund write ups are a very good source

[garbetklb] 24/11/2023 00:38

Andy - I'm struggling to find the fund being managed by Metage Capital...

[andyandyoj] 23/11/2023 19:03

And you may wonder why to focus on this fund. The key for me is
1. The fund is actually managed by Metage Capital “The fund is managed by Metage Capital Limited. It invests in the public equity markets across the globe.”
2. If you read the AA4 RNS from January (19 Jan 2023 07:00

RNS Number : 1778N) then you will see that the Independent Director nominated for experience in unlocking value and is in fact Lindsay Thomas Sharp (Tom Sharp) who happens to be a Director of said Metage Capital. Put that together with the Staude Value Fund write ups…

[andyandyoj] 23/11/2023 18:37

I found the Global value fund wrote up for October (not yet on their website).
hxxps://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02738923-2A1487258?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4. In summary it says that they were surprised by the October decline which they ascribe to a thinly traded stock having a sell order and not to the actual news which they see as positive. In fact they say the DNA2 sales of two aircraft were at a level much higher than they had forecast for the AA4 aircraft. As a result they see “a reasonable expectation for a much better outcome at AA4 than we had previously assumed.” I like that…. Add in that the DNA2 aircraft were in storage and likely to be used for parts etc and the Aa4 and dna stories are getting brighter!

[lord gnome] 23/11/2023 18:03

Sadly no, langland. You'll have to take my word for it ;-))

[langland] 23/11/2023 17:09

LG....also my thanks for that info. Do you have a link by any chance?

[langland] 23/11/2023 17:00

We have 6 A380s leased to Emirates (used to be 8 but we flogged two to Etihad for £65mn each). 2 777s are leased to them and there are 4 A350s leased to Thai.

[skyship] 23/11/2023 16:29

LG - thnx for that. The re-fit programme obviously great news; but wasn't aware that it involved four of our A380s.

Anyone know how many in total we lease to Emirates?

[lord gnome] 23/11/2023 15:20

I read with interest that 4 of the A380s that we lease to Emirates have been chosen for the Premium Economy refit programme. Sell or lease, this has to be good news for AA4 if a deal is done at a fair price. At least 4 of our planes aren't going out of service just yet and will keep flying for years to come.Apologies if you were already aware of this, but I certainly wasn't.

[spittingbarrel] 22/11/2023 13:08

I've just bought some at 42.9. Someone's mad, either the seller or me...

[hpcg] 22/11/2023 11:32

Matttjos - An ESG manager can't have possibly invested here in the first place. I would think it is either a traditional sell half on a double (nonsense, but people do it) or funds forced to sell because of redemptions. Don't forget a lot of investor will only have started mving money into money market funds when they hit 5%, being many months too late. By definition most sellers are at the bottom and most buyers are at the top. I don't mean in this instrument now, the bottom is way behind, I'm talking UK investors taking their money out of the stock market.
Still, who cares, all the better for thoseof us that pay attention.

[clive7878] 21/11/2023 22:39

Emirates have their heads turned on - larger plane - more business and first class passengers - higher rate of income per seat - making more money from each flight.
I agree that Emirates will keep these flying as long as possible.

[my retirement fund] 21/11/2023 20:37

I added a good slug today

[eeza] 21/11/2023 20:31

Shows how 'wrong' the share price is.

[mattjos] 21/11/2023 20:28

thanks eeza .. terrific article & makes it abundantly clear that Emirates are 100% committed to the A380 for as long as they can possibly keep them going.
Sir Tim Clark still arguing that Airbus should restart the 380 programme.

I am still convinced the seller here is simply a fund manager operating under some sort of idiotic woke/ESG governance directive and being forced to sell.
As/when they are gone, this should re-rate according to the underlying attractive metrics

[eeza] 21/11/2023 19:34

"The Emirates A380 is to be completely refurbished under the airline’s US$2billion retrofit program".

[andyandyoj] 20/11/2023 15:58

Looks like today’s bigger buys are on dna2. With a buy back happening in a couple of months of 2 in 7 shares and a pretty strong commitment to more that is understandable. Same basic proposition but dna2 has no debt

[langland] 20/11/2023 10:05

The block which was available at the end of last week around 43 seems to have moved out to 43.5.

[hpcg] 20/11/2023 08:10

Basically I agree. If they were 200s I might have a little more doubt, but with 747s missing from the sky there'll have to be more point to point and from minor airports to hubs as hub to hub slots fill. The gulf states still have a lot of capacity on their runways. Emirates could add Belfast or Edinburgh for example.

If this starts to become clear we should see asset values written back up.

[rimau1] 20/11/2023 07:42

The 777 is an absolute machine, no realistic scenario of the leases on these planes not being extended in my view. Sit back and watch the cashflows fly higher.

[langland] 20/11/2023 07:42

'What if Emirates extends all the leases! I would guess the 777-300ER would be most at risk, but 777 are hardly flowing off the production line at the moment. I would think they will easily find another home even if Emirates as a tier 1 customer has other choices.'

I believe that Boeing are having problems with the new 777s in that the planes are not meeting the fuel consumption figures which were projected in the original spec.