Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[tim000] 01/7/2024 07:13

Seen it now.

[dofmeister] 01/7/2024 07:08

Wow, $100m raise on AIX will take us places quickly......

[excellance] 29/6/2024 19:39

RMM and DME both developed into producers, but low copper prices, high costs, and senior debt small print destroyed all value.

The Discovery metals story is a good one, the terms of their senior debt restricted them from finding an alternative lender, the debt could only be repaid from proceeds of copper sales, so the lender eventually got to foreclose and confiscate the mine, however, local law stated that if a miner goes bust the mine transfers into the hands of the actual miners, the men operating the mine, the lenders had wrongly assumed that Australian law would apply, so by foreclosing they lost any chance of getting their cash back.
The Boseto mine in Botswana is still producing as far as I know, tho I think it has changed hands again.

[tim000] 29/6/2024 19:15

True, as long as the assets are already producing and making profits to reinvest. ALTN is such an example, I don’t think any of your listed failures were ever in that position.

[tim000] 29/6/2024 11:59

“A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar at the top” (Mark Twain). That’s the current market view of most mining projects owned by micro caps. Owning lots of these holes in the ground is hardly a recommendation.

[excellance] 29/6/2024 11:50

Indeed, AAU are hoping to IPO on the ASX, again no details, but obviously it will involve an issue of shares.

LTHs hoped the company would be profitable, self funding, and looking to pay dividends soon, but with this new deal they can forget dividends for several years, unless they sell their minor interests and pay a special dividend as they did before, but unlikely as they need to raise capital...IPO, open offer, project finance etc...

[tim000] 29/6/2024 11:41

I was following AAU closely and could have bought in at 2p or less. But I concluded that the business couldn’t avoid enormous dilution if it were to achieve its production goals. In contrast, I think ALTN will be very successful without much dilution, hence my strong investment. Whether my analysis is correct or not remains to be seen.

[tim000] 29/6/2024 11:33

FFM have rightly, in my view, concluded that the mining risk belongs with an entity large enough to bear it, and instead have transformed into an exploration company. The business model is to sell the project on to a large miner idc. That’s what RMM should have done, only access to capital for explorers is waaay more expensive in London than in Sydney.

[tim000] 29/6/2024 11:25

The trouble is, the T&C for finance are either potentially ruinous, as per RMM, or there is no finance available in the current market. Financiers are not fools and are not going to offer debt finance to high-risk ventures without an appropriate level of cover. The RMM management surely knew what they were letting themselves into, it’s just that mining issues were much greater than expected. AAU is one of the few companies that has had repeated success in developing new projects, although even they have suffered from the local ESG lobby re Tavsan. With no experience of mining in Zimbabwe, that’s a heck of a risk. ALTN wins on all counts in my view.

[excellance] 29/6/2024 11:13

My experience is that the most important skill for any business is to manage the finances and understand the small print of any loan and the implications of default. It amazes me how many so call CFOs sign away the entire company they work for by agreeing to bad deals, or being over optimistic with their assumptions. Add that flaw into a poor market for capital and disaster is really not far away.

I've got one foot into the AAU camp at the moment, quite recently dipped back in as the share price has dropped significantly as their various minority interests have had to raise project finance, and now they've agreed a merger for 100% interest in an interesting Zimbabwe gold project, but clarification on funding is still a big void. Looks like I dipped in too soon, but that depends on what happens next...they promised an open offer to existing holders, but no details...I should have waited a little longer.

[tim000] 29/6/2024 10:46

My experience is that microcaps with no revenues have neither the skills nor access to cheap capital to bring new mines into production. In recent years there have been very few such successes but several major failures. Most prospective miners continue to sit on their hands and hope that access to capital will improve. EML for example was hoping to be in production years ago but still is no nearer getting the necessary funding. It will be interesting to see how PXC performs - my guess is it will fail, but too early to tell yet. The conclusion I draw is that it’s essential to stick with proven miners that make profits, the market continues to undervalue them so the upside is just as great as high-risk stocks like PXC and EML. I expect ALTN to easily outperform any of these aspirational miners.

[excellance] 29/6/2024 10:32

I started buying back in during July 2022, at 77p up to 89p then 98p in November and December 2022.

I had previously gone to cash, sold everything, stayed in cash for a few months before dripping back in. 22 was a seriously bad year for many natural resource companies, for me RMM and HZM were particularly bad, but at least I got out before they went to zero...but the strong survive!

[tim000] 29/6/2024 10:17

I started buying on 12/6. I’ve acquired 130k shares in 13 trading days, on average 10k per day. Obviously the share price has risen strongly during that period, but nonetheless I’m surprised buying has not been very difficult given the illiquidity of the market for ALTN shares. Hopefully it’s a lot tighter now, as goldrush has suggested.

[excellance] 29/6/2024 09:48

That's about 1.5% of the free float.

[tim000] 29/6/2024 09:38

I should reach 0.5% next week. That will be my limit until there is news which would merit a significant rerating of the share price. The next update will certainly be interesting, the impression given at the AGM was that it would have some substance. Hope it does!

[excellance] 29/6/2024 08:46

136/142 was the actual spread at close yesterday, the 143 was a dodgy UT after close.

[excellance] 28/6/2024 18:03

So, expanded and accelerated in 2020, but gradually advancing in 2023.

"initially concentrating on Area No.2 the Company has now expanded its exploration programs into Areas No. 1 and 5"

Why?

Is it simply that they didn't have the financial clout or human capital to be able to develop TS, but they are able to continually drill and define it so that when the time comes they can optimise the opportunity to maximise the return?

Or...

Is it a pile of low grade tat?

Then the chairman says the next project is to find opportunities to diversify!

Could it be that TS is being drilled and defined for sale?

[excellance] 28/6/2024 17:57

The Company’s strategy has been focused on organic growth mainly developing the Sekisovskoye mine while gradually advancing Teren-Sai to production, aiming at an annual gold production of 100,000oz in the long term

[excellance] 28/6/2024 17:57

The Teren-Sai area is large, covering in excess of 198km which the Company has split this into a number of areas. After initially concentrating on Area No.2 the Company has now expanded its exploration programs into Areas No. 1 and 5.

The Teren-sai exploration program has been expanded and accelerated during 2020. The Company views the site as a very valuable asset that will add substantially to the production capacity of the Company once it is fully functional.

[tim000] 28/6/2024 15:42

I continue to add. Don’t mind paying about 140p. As excellance said on 1/12/20…