Altitude Share Discussion Threads

[sja123] 10/10/2016 08:45

For anyone looking in today...

WH Ireland Have 300p tgt price in recent note
SCSW described it as a "multibagger"
Directors continually buying shares
CEO owns 29% of company aligning his interests with all holders
His latest purchase recently at over 40p
42m shares only, many now tightly held
2 x deals already announced this year with profit share
Bigger than Aprinta deal in talks
Hints of more deals to come
Genuine re-rate now company moving into profit and cutting costs
80% profit margins
Software already in the bag, little R&D spending required
One stop shop for Click2Ship solution for branded goods getting distributors attention
Massive US market to address
Weakening £ makes US earnings more lucrative still
Hinted at other possible applications for its software solutions

All imo etc

[sja123] 10/10/2016 08:42

Traders taking a cursory glance at the seemingly astronomic share price increase recently may well be put off....any serious investor doing some proper research will understand the opportunity here....and how much further we have to run...

All IMO etc

[sheep_herder] 10/10/2016 08:34

So much for my theory of this not moving until we get some numbers. :-) Or perhaps my numbers woke everyone up. :-D

[value king] 07/10/2016 13:05

A very nice consolidation being reinforced today ahead of the next move higher.

I would imagine once these get through the recent high there could be quite a move higher. I'm pleased to have added yet a few more this morning and as a long term subscriber to Small Company Share Watch I'm looking forward to them keeping me well informed as ever at the next issue.

[ggbarabajagal] 07/10/2016 12:35

reckon some irish been fillin their boots at Kainos KNOS, another SCSW portfolio company, breaking out sharply today

[sja123] 07/10/2016 10:26

Interesting numbers SH...and a good stab at putting some figures to this which can be worked with...

Easy to see why directors are so keen to buy at these prices and why SCSW, not noted for wild forecasts, describes this as a "multibagger".....

Add this in of course:

"a five-year agreement with Philadelphia, PA based AI Mastermind, a leading buying group serving more than 1,000 promotional product resellers representing over $200 million in annual sales in North America (the "Agreement")"

....mind blowing possibilities here and intimating they have a bigger than Aprinta deal in talks....

All imo etc

[martinthebrave] 07/10/2016 09:45

Bought more this morning. Just in time by the look of it!!

[sheep_herder] 07/10/2016 07:47

Yes, of their gross profit.

[value king] 07/10/2016 07:38

Sheep_Herder - it's a 50/50 sharing deal with Aprinta.

[sheep_herder] 06/10/2016 22:46

So if I give an example of my numbers so far for the Aprinta deal, perhaps people would like to critique them. I've got a spreadsheet with some basic variables in there:
- Num Distributors (default 20000)
- Num Customers per Distributor (default 1)
- Monthy Revenue per Customer (default £500)
- Aprinta Gross Margin (33%)
- ALT Gross Margin (80%)
- PER (default 20)
- Costs (£1m)
- Costs Growth (default 10% per year)

Assumptions:
- I'm assuming that they won't manage to supply all of Aprinta's 41K distributors
- I'm using SCSW's numbers of 500 per month (but in GBP) which we know is too low
- I've added in a cost multiplier to get slightly more realistic net numbers but this is still no where near accurate.
- I'm using a 10 year linear ramp for bringing online all the distributors. So for the default of 20K, that's 2K coming online every year and accumulating. It should probably be exponential but my Excel foo is weak.

Years : 1 .. 10
EPS (pence) : 1, 5, 8, 12, 15, 19, 22, 26, 29, 32

If I increase the number of customers per disti to 5 I get:
EPS (pence) : 16, 34, 53, 71, 89, 107, 125, 144, 162, 180

If I move to the full 41K distis with 5 customers each I get:
EPS (pence) : 36, 73, 111, .... do I need to say more?

[sheep_herder] 06/10/2016 22:15

OK, so far I've found an article that states that contract printers work to a margin of around 33% which is much better than I originally thought.

Also, no one has mentioned this before, but the brands that owned the factory that Aprinta bought out in Alexander are quite well known. :-)

[allstar4eva] 06/10/2016 20:56

Take a look at Small Company Share Watch.

hxxp://www.scsw.co.uk/downloadcopy.php?action=download

You can register for a free to peek at the current issue which features ALT. This is very difficult to value until the sites are up and running. In a few months the current price could be viewed as overvalued or a stonking bargain!

[value king] 06/10/2016 20:54

No sheep_Herder, much higher!

WH Ireland say this:

'Gross Margin by type
Gross margin has trended upwards in recent years, benefiting from price increases and
improved utilisation in the exhibitions business. Going forward, revenue mix is likely to
further underpin an improvement as high margin (90%+) SaaS and C2S/Throughput sales
(estimated at c. 70% after adjusting for marketing led customer acquisition costs)'

[sheep_herder] 06/10/2016 20:48

Good post value king. Also glad you found an entry point.

Can anyone help me with a formula for calculating the gross profit for each disti in the Aprinta deal?

Given a customer of one of the distis spends £500pcm on product. How much flows back to ALT? I'm ignoring $:£ exchange here to keep it simple. ALT and Aprinta will share gross profit 50:50 so can I assume that Aprinta's gross margin is similar to FOUR at 6%?

So is my monthly gross per customer £500*0.06*0.5?

[hitsha1] 06/10/2016 20:21

hxxp://www.customerfocus.com/sites/default/files/FAQS.pdf

[ddav] 06/10/2016 11:24

I'm going back to sheep!

[sheep_herder] 06/10/2016 09:11

It's not going to move from here until we get more news flow. It's at the low end of the broker forecast and without any numbers to back it up, I can't see how this can go higher now. Where's that bigger-than-Aprinta deal...

[melf] 06/10/2016 09:00

I'd be quite happy for the share price to consolidate around this level for a while.....patience!

[the patient investor] 06/10/2016 08:40

Maybe he is God?

But DYOR

[janeann] 05/10/2016 21:39

and what do you know to be able to predict that?