Allied Minds Share Discussion Threads

[catabrit] 07/3/2024 13:48

Another successful launch by OSK in recent days.

[kooba] 28/2/2024 07:06

hxxps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/02/23/2834653/0/en/Federated-Wireless-Announces-Commercial-Launch-of-Its-Automated-Frequency-Coordinator-AFC-following-FCC-Certification.html

[wbodger] 21/2/2024 21:38

Isn't Elon Musk's company, Space-X the one launching Orbital's constellation? The article doesn't say that MethaneSAT is a direct competitor. You're right to say OSK haven't built their hyperspectral offering yet but they should have a head start in a niche, and I don't see it as necessarily bad for OSK. (There could even be business for them.) At worst a glancing blow as I read it.

That Wood Mackenzie quote seems to use words similar to OSK's words in earlier press releases about their specialisation, hyperspectral imaging:
... other satellites typically offer very high sensitivity to emissions at fine spatial resolution or wide spatial coverage that allow the entire globe to be observed within a short time period. Thats a reference to OSK, isn't it.

[kooba] 19/2/2024 17:37

OS has no track record of building a business at all and are always late in delivering , also they are out of money just when they should be getting sats 5 and 6 in the constellation up . Google have unlimited finance and sees an opportunity in an area that OS has hardly secured any revenue let alone market leadership in.I like your optimistic take but i find it difficult to think a player of Google's size and commercial reach is anything but unwelcome competition, they can also operate as a lost leader to gain market share...it has been known . Just my opinion.

[catabrit] 16/2/2024 15:08

I view this as incredibly encouraging actually for a couple of reasons. First, competition is welcome as it means the sector has a lot of potential. Second, google do not have the best track record of monetising or growing businesses that are not core. This will be everything to OS and so they will fight tooth and nail for market leadership.

[kooba] 16/2/2024 13:08

Federated still going then !!https://www.thefastmode.com/technology-solutions/35033-wwt-federated-wireless-and-intel-to-open-private-wireless-and-neutral-host-network-lab-in-st-louis

[damers] 11/2/2024 10:28

I wonder if Ocuterra will be the first cab off the rank, following the release of (positive?) top line data? The spreadsheet tells me that ALM hold an 11.2% interest (giving a NAV of 2.4p a share around the time of delisting).
ALM mentioned that this could be a multi-bagger on the last call, so can we expect a pay-out of 5p+?

Federated did mention on a recent podcast that some news on the way re new DOD contracts, but agreed all seems very quiet.

A nice post from OSK this morning on X.

[wbodger] 10/2/2024 00:06

We may be diluted on Orbital, but the constellation seems to be getting launched. I think bobonumber1 posted that the cash runway takes them through this year so we may still have an interest when contracts start delivering. Big numbers, so even a small interest would be worth a bit. (Important that the launch timetable doesn't slip.) Then it's a question of monetising.

[kooba] 09/2/2024 10:14

Well so little news..it looks like Federated has disappeared off the face of the planet , virtually nothing out about them for months nothing on social media either..must all be good then ??OcuTerra on the other hand is x'ing like a good 'un so maybe they are excited by the top line results from the phase trial due to be announced in the next 6 weeks or so. All a bit binary on the outcome.https://x.com/ocuterra/status/1755596029087330642?s=61&t=s79RLRddG_Gfl7VpUZvZpQOrbital seemed to have progressed the gHOST satellite constellation eventually but again its all gone very quiet. Rather hoped that still had some value.Very difficult to see us getting anything back on how things are going , successive poor management and clearly very poor investment decisions looks like its just going to drain the last bit of cash keeping the lights on so they can watch their crossed fingers that something good happens.

[cousinit] 21/12/2023 10:54

I guess the maths I was using, something like this:

Raise $72m series D preferred
Value of entire equity $72m

Pre series D equity = peanuts unless Cerberus willing to pay decent control premium, therefore need to roll dice to drive value

[catabrit] 21/12/2023 10:22

Oh and love some of your stuff, spec.

[catabrit] 21/12/2023 10:20

Let us see what 2024 brings. I am just amazed that nobody is running basic math; if your exit revenue multiple halves and your rate of growth is more uncertain, then jam tomorrow is worth a lot less than a fruit pie today in PV terms. Maybe they’re being too greedy and wanting the home run. That is fine but we could always get our money back via a sale of our federated shares to Cerberus and then maintain option value on the rest of the portfolio. It worries me that Crystal Amber are worried / annoyed.

[spectoacc] 21/12/2023 09:13

Randomly woke up in the night and thought "Whatever happened to ALM post-delisting, or Federated Wireless?". Had taken this BB off watchlist. #3383.

Seems it's same-old from ALM, only now with less scrutiny.

The ghost of Neil Woodford. Sorry to anyone having to waste intellectual energy on this.

[wbodger] 14/12/2023 20:27

You should phone Sam Dobbyn if you can find a number. (Missing the Investor Call doesn't matter, it wasn't public anyway, it was by invitation.) Maybe phoning any large shareholder of (formerly) ALM might be productive since you have a large interest.

No need for CA to be secretive as it isn't listed now. Maybe they have Sam Dobbyn's number.

I don't have many. For me CA is more important.

[kooba] 02/12/2023 10:06

There is Crystal Amber who have been on the case for years but can only do so much. They previously offered to wind the business up and as they had significant skin in the game might have been more aligned to getting shareholder returns than feathering their nest ! It was not to be as there has been a supportive fraction that has enabled the farce to continue to where were are today.Shame ..and an example of the dangers of unchecked poor management and governance and unaligned investment managers gambling with shareholder funds.Poor model and a dreadful execution.

[zimmie] 02/12/2023 09:06

It sounds an awful mess. Are there no large institutional investors who can put a brake on those running it profligacy?

[kooba] 02/12/2023 08:25

Seems much now depends on Ocutera a company the management wrote off and did not back , whilst they were putting more money into other failures.If Ocutera treatment in trials works they might get a deal or funding at multiples of current book value...if not they are out of cash so it's a high risk long shot.Everything else is progressing more slowly than planned and running out of money , though there are precious few investments left. It's a case of serial mismanagement that has lost hundreds of millions and has managed to get virtually no investment successes ...literally the only company they ever made money on was Hawkeye ..and then a lump of cash went to the management.Federated our largest book investment continues to miss any revenue forecast and is now years behind previous forecasts whilst burning any funding raised. ALM has little say in its running as it is now effectively controlled by Cerberus following the last raise.An unrivalled catalogue of failure and still those running it drain down the last of the cash.

[catabrit] 02/12/2023 01:05

Yep. I am expecting my cash to be tied up here for quite some time. It is frustrating and I think I got the risk reward wrong. I would be disappointed to lose money off a 10p basis though.

[cousinit] 01/12/2023 18:17

Apparently it should be available on InvestorMeet for shareholders.

I wouldn't put a deposit down on a Vantage just yet...

Tough economic environment (businesses not wanting to incur capex, extended sales cycles) and funding very challenging.

Seemed like a few more snakes than ladders in terms of specific portfolio company progress.

[zimmie] 01/12/2023 09:12

Did anyone listen in on the call? Any news?

[jj3483598] 22/11/2023 14:43

Any insights from the call?

[damers] 16/11/2023 19:51

Greetings all. Worth a read....

hxxp://www.satmagazine.com/story.php?number=1288708509

[wbodger] 16/11/2023 07:33

Looks like meeting is 8 - 10 AM Boston time. (BST threw me.)

Maybe Sam Dobbyn's radio silence is good news.