| Date | Subject |
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15/4/2021
14:14 | spectoacc: Tax losses must be an angle - surely.
But fact remains - ALM has regularly looked an absolute bargain, and every single time has proven to be a value trap. There's a wonderful note from 2015, when ALM was £5/share, saying what a pile of dog poo it was. I bet even they didn't see 25p coming.
Good luck to holders, it undeniably looks cheap. But if anything went awry at Federated....
Edit - found it, for anyone interested. Don't need to read far:
hTTps://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Allied-Minds-Report.pdf
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15/4/2021
13:50 | spectoacc: It was a classic value trap 2 or 3 years ago, if it does come good shareholders will deserve it. Be interested to know how much cash Spin soaked up.
Edit - c.$150m over a decade and a half.
Anyone recall what price ALM raised cash from shareholders at, £3-something I believe?
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15/4/2021
13:32 | spectoacc: Agree it's cheap (as it was 2 or 3 years ago too) & hopefully downside is limited. Something has to give on ALM eventually, but it'll do so without me.
FW - not sure I'd want Google as a competitor! Really ought to be a tasty size for someone.
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15/4/2021
07:30 | bobonumber1: Continued. Bridgecomm. Doing well. Single digit millions revenue for 21. Again double for 22 onwards. Tapping into a $30billion market. Boeing part sponsoring ongoing r&d and progressive partnership with Nokia. Looks very interesting but smaller than the others.Spin. Not yet dead. ARM and applied are putting together a proprosal for an extended runway, details of which we will hear soon. ALM reluctant to participate so dilution expected. Worse case scenario there is significant value in the IP. Just a question of how that would be monetised. Spark insights. Probably dead.
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13/4/2021
06:58 | spectoacc: And yet if ST read this thread, he'd know the Edison note isn't even all that accurate.
There's still value in ALM IMO, just not as much as claimed.
Waiting on Capital Markets presentation, hopefully make it clearer.
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01/4/2021
15:13 | spectoacc: Thanks for that.
I'd take issue with them including the cash - 36.6p without it, the majority being Federated.
Can personally see ALM p*ssing the last of the cash up the wall. Or put another way, if it's not all done & dusted ASAP (which it won't be), the cash will be gone in costs in less than 5 yrs, even without one single penny to funding rounds.
Some will go into funding rounds this year, since all the holdings need more - but seeing how much went into Spin, I'm discounting the cash.
FW - as always - the big hope. Any news on that and the situation changes.
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30/3/2021
12:12 | spectoacc: I fear I agree. Trumpeting the 12p divi from early 2020 AGAIN is ridiculous. CEO gone in that time at least - why did ALM need such a big board? - and there does seem to have been genuine progress in most of the holdings.
But most of them are small, and the SPAC bubble we're in now is a golden opportunity to reverse FW and return shareholders a big wad of cash.
As you say @kooba, perhaps then try to flog the rest to PE.
Disappointed with the cash burn - which shouldn't have been an issue because you'd think we'd have been all done by now.
There's value in ALM IMO, but rarely much progress.
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30/3/2021
07:31 | spectoacc: Invesco reduced a few, reported yesterday, but still hold c.21%.
Hard to believe ALM this morning are still trumpeting the 12p special divi from over a year ago!
And "A number.." may be true, but much of the value is in only one. Why not SPAC it?
"A number of our portfolio companies made significant progress during the year. We believe in the future prospects of our portfolio companies, and are focused on achieving well-timed, risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders.
"The Board remain of the view that the group as a whole remains well positioned to maximise value and deliver additional returns to shareholders."
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07/1/2021
15:14 | spectoacc: Thanks @kooba. ALM my largest (now 2nd largest) holding, so it's good to have a debate.
"A key feature of Federated's SAS is that it is the only FCC authorised company with a fully deployed Environmental Sensing Capability as required by the FCC. This has allowed Federated to operate unabated, providing a significant competitive advantage."
But that needs to remain the case. Amazon, Azure, US Govnt - there's a lot of potential, but will that +500% revenue target (from a low base) be achieved?
Federated's 5G angle about the only hot sector ALM exposed to.
(On last funding round point - strongly suspect the fact Temasek stayed out meant ALM - with all their influence over Federated - wanted to not pay too high a price for more. Give others a bit of dilution. That doesn't explain why Temasek didn't invest, but does explain why at same level).
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16/1/2020
22:39 | geordieshores: Thought the price would have increased more today. Some people might be waiting closer to the 24th to see if the price drops, but the risk you take waiting is that the price might increase before the 24th so it will be more expensive to get in.Something else that could affect the price of course the dividend. Dividends can be a complex subject. Sometimes on the ex dividend date the share price drops by roughly the amount of the dividend.QUESTION: imagine the price stays the same eg 52p. Will it drop to 40p after the payment of the 12.65p dividend to reflect the price of the dividend as often happens with other shares that pay a dividend.This ALM dividend is classed as a special dividend, so maybe the share price will stay roughly the same after the dividend has been paid?Does anyone have any other views or opinions on what they think might happen?12.65p as a percentage of 52p is almost a 25% yield. And because it's a special dividend, I can't see the share price falling by 25% after its been paid. In fact, Allied Minds are due to release more news to the market soon (see recent RNS about tie up with Boeing) which means the share price might actually increase without the news of the special dividend.
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