Allied Minds Share Discussion Threads

[cousinit] 16/1/2022 10:00

Hopefully ALM/FW are receiving decent advice if Plan A being stymied. Appreciate that the bottom is falling out of the SPAC market generally but that could still form part of any Plan B (as CRS lobbied for last year when the market seemed to have near limitless appetite...)

[kooba] 13/1/2022 12:24

Agree we get diluted whatever..but will the pre new money value reflect the great progress and expectation of a material increase in revenues or that the largest shareholder can’t hold their corner and are going to get that dilution at the “wrong” price as our board rep gets out manoeuvred on our principal asset..if there is not a material uplift in valuation the whole guidance and strategy is blown it seems.

[spectoacc] 13/1/2022 12:07

Certainly possible - how much dilution coming for ALM. But FW needs the cash, got to be worth more diluted and fully funded, than unfunded.

[kooba] 13/1/2022 12:04

I worry its because the Chair is getting beaten up on terms and ALM shareholders getting shafted..hope I'm proved wrong.

[spectoacc] 13/1/2022 11:13

"...Or the board are serially misinforming the market in the outlook statements and expectations.."


Eg Spin.

I don't understand why FW haven't raised cash - isn't because they're swimming in cashflow and don't need it.

Perhaps it's coming, but there's no ALM of note without FW, and so far there's been no funding round.

[kooba] 13/1/2022 10:49

Since last valuation on FW Sept '19 the S&P small cap information technology 600 is up by some 72% with annualised total returns of 26%..so sector valuations are very strong. This should feed into the expectation of "venture capital" like returns.What are venture capital like returns?Based on detailed research from Cambridge Associates, the top quartile of VC funds have an average annual return ranging from 15% to 27% over the past 10 years, compared to an average of 9.9% S&P 500 return per year for each of those ten years So again annualised in the 20% range seems to cover that expectation.Of course this is not a return on individual stocks this a return across a portfolio of investments taking into account the ones that run out of road..if one took such things into account across the ALM portfolio over a period of time there would be a very heavy burden of expectation o the remaining holdings!! But if one took the position since the company strategy moved to one of realisation April 2019 there has still been a sharp reduction in nav and even this year its doubtful even with some uplift in Orbital sidekick and pheonix like return of OcuTerra the company has generated a positive rate of return with Spin and Spark write offs.So to get expected venture capital like returns one needs to see pretty sizeable up rounds across the remaining investments to hit that mark. This is the justification for the current strategy to maximise returns. Unfortunately since neither FW or BridgeComm the company's two biggest investments have had any outside investment for a few years there has been no revaluations evidencing the performance ..we have had to go by company comment and shop research ..all very positive on the now remaining holdings. With both FW and BridgeComm now likely needing funding it will be the this valuation which will show whether the company is indeed delivering. The proof will be in he pudding..but trading at over a 50% discount to Numis latest nav calculation one has to think that this is the biggest off the radar situation or the board are serially misinforming the market in the outlook statements and expectations.One thing i do know is that it is too bloody quiet and the board are appalling at communications..we will see if they can deliver the returns promised soon enough i guess.

[kooba] 13/1/2022 09:43

Refresh on what the board have given in the way of updates on the principle investment Federated Wireless. The market estimate for FW revenue is for $17m '21 $40m '22 these were in the capital markets day presentation by company in April '21 and have been reinforced in shop (Numis) research up to October '21 their last comment. Company comments are below and i note in the CMD presentation the CEO said they would know the full year outcome early in the second half. Harry Rein the ALM Chair is also Chair of FW so should be all over the numbers. FW is expected to need to raise money by Q1 '22, Numis research in August comments that FW is likely worth a multiple of current valuation presumably guided by the Board. It's very quiet isn't it!?AUGUST portfolio updateOutlook for Federated Wireless The Board of Allied Minds is very encouraged with the progress being made at Federated Wireless. It met its first half revenue expectation and is on track to meet its full year plan. Perhaps most importantly, as we continue to witness and understand the evolution of Federated Wireless' business model, in conjunction with external advisers, it is clear that Federated Wireless is very well positioned as an Enterprise Cloud Based Software Company. This understanding gives further confidence in our belief in the potential for significant further value uplift from this very exciting portfolio company.October interim resultsAlthough the remaining portfolio companies are mostly at a relatively early stage in their lifecycle, the Board is positive about their prospects and is increasingly confident of delivering venture capital-like returns upon exit if the portfolio companies continue to meet their planned technical and commercial goals.October interim detail.The Board of Allied Minds is very encouraged by the progress being made at Federated. It met its first half revenue expectation and is on track to meet its growth ambitions in the coming years. Federated has sufficient cash to fund its growth into 2022. Allied Minds currently owns 36.61% of Federated and expects that if the company continues to achieve its planned key milestones, it will be in a position to attract any future equity financing in an upround. Holdings and valuation: -- Date of Last Funding Round: September 2019 (second closing post-period end in April 2020) -- Post-Money Valuation: $215.0 million -- Co-Investors: American Tower (NYSE: AMT), GIC (Singapore's sovereign wealth fund), Pennant Investors and SBA Communications (NASDAQ: SBAC) -- Allied Minds' Issued and Outstanding Ownership: 43.11% -- Allied Minds' Fully-Diluted Ownership: 36.61%

[kooba] 06/1/2022 05:44

Highly unlikely making anything like a net profit across the business but the nature of the revenue estimation ($17m) is that about half is recurring revenue , next year Rev estimate $40m so growing fast with meaningful valuable recurring..last company update was that was on track.whilst not defending the basis of valuation in US tech growth areas valuations of over 10 times prospective Rev valuations are common in high growth sectors like private networks. Previous valuation of Federated was $215m post new money in Sept '19. One would expect a decent up round on available information.

[casholaa] 05/1/2022 23:04

Kooba, (from above), "1) Federated Wireless (FW) accounts for c.26p NAV per ALM share (but is likely worth a multiple of this) in our estimation, and, most importantly, the company keeps producing more evidence to assure that it is on track to turn over $17m in FY21 and $40m in FY22, and earn high, SaaS-type,profit margins."

Are they actually making any money yet?

[kooba] 05/1/2022 21:12

The one the life sciences Chair saw written off completely only to see the brightest folks in the business move in and raise $35m ..ALM were lucky they weren't diluted out of sight as had little to do with the phoenix like reemergence but they retain a decent interest. Harry going on the board looks unlikely!Huge market if they can prove the medication though some way off but looks like phase 2 starting this quarter I believe. Probably a very interesting asset.The board need to prove pretty quickly that things are on the right track ..there are few holdings left and $100s m written off ..only the good ones were left and some of those have failed in the past year. Signs that the Ned board can deliver value for holders soon or the company needs a change of management who can communicate and get a grip on strategy..maybe looking outside the box at a corporate solution.

[casholaa] 05/1/2022 16:54

Ironically, it were due to the OcuTerra Therapeutics stuff that I invested, I think that this is where the money to be made is at.

[kooba] 05/1/2022 15:20

This the August '21 Numis comment..i think rather upbeat with multiple of our current nav target of 46p. FW worth a multiple of current value.I suppose we will find out fairly soon if the board has been giving BS guidance of values and returns..market is not agreeing with the company's broker!ALLIED MINDS (BUY, 46P)*. Pre-close update for 1H FY21. Positive - ALM's Board and portfolio companies continue to deliver accumulating evidence that ALM is worth significantly more than our estimate of its NAV (46p), let alone its current share price (19.5p). Federated Wireless, by far ALM's most valuable portfolio company, now earns recurring, fast-growing and profitable revenue. Several other portfolio companies continue to earn material project revenue. 1) Federated Wireless (FW) accounts for c.26p NAV per ALM share (but is likely worth a multiple of this) in our estimation, and, most importantly, the company keeps producing more evidence to assure that it is on track to turn over $17m in FY21 and $40m in FY22, and earn high, SaaS-type,profit margins. In addition, we highlight that ALM's Chairman, Harry Rein, has been appointed FW Chairman as well, because of his own expertise and experience. On its own, or with major partners such as Amazon Web Services, FW is delivering top quality private 5G networks, at speed, to commercial and US government customers(because of this, the DoD, for one, is promoting FW to other sectors of the US government).This is in addition, to the continued deployment of FW's spectrum-sharing service to augment the mobile network capacity/reach/quality of numerous incumbent and alternative connectivity SPs (e.g. telcos and cable companies). In addition, FWhas commenced commercial operations in remote US territories as well (e.g.Puerto Rico); has launched products to further help fixed wireless SPs deploy its service in remote geographies as well (to help eliminate the Digital Divide); has progressed product development of, for example, its Automated Frequency Controller for the 6GHz band (as opposed to the CBRS band), and Spectrum Exchange (which allows holders of CBRS licenses to lease out unused spectrum, and thus extract more value from their licences; these licenses were auctioned in 2020 for a total of >$4.5bn). 2) BridgeComm (BC) accounts for c.8p NAV per ALM share, in our estimation. BC continues to hit its technology milestones (with partners such as Boeing and Nokia), further developing its leading and patented technology for ultrafast and secure optical wireless communications. Most importantly, in our view, BC launched its point-to-multipoint laser communications product in Mar-21 ('MOCA') and sales are expected to start in 2H FY21. BC earns project revenue already, but the company may well crystalise its value simply by selling its IP. 3) Orbital Sidekick (OSK) accounts for c.4pNAV per ALM share, in our view. OSK completed its $16m Series A funding roundin Apr-21 (it has a $16m contract from the US DoD as well). As importantly, in Jun-21, OSK successfully launched its most powerful satellite yet (Aurora) to collect and analyse hyperspectral data to serve customers in the energy, mining and defence sectors. Aurora is a precursor to six further satellites scheduled for launch during 2022. 4) OcuTerra Therapeutics (c.15.5%-owned by ALM) has been brought back to life by an unexpected $31.5m Series B funding round, now completed. OT is a clinical stage ophthalmology drug development company. We estimate that its post-money valuation of $48.9m adds >2p to ALM's NAV per share. 5)We continue to believe that ALM is worth a multiple of our estimate of its NAV per share, which itself is 2.4x the company's last closing share price. We will review our estimate of ALM's fair value when the company details its 1H FY21results in mid-September 2021.

[kooba] 05/1/2022 15:01

I'm concerned the games may be at the the expense of the guy round the table who can't hold their corner on behalf of their shareholders and is being outmanoeuvred ..not sure we have the best representing our interests and to be frank have little skin in the game.But hey ho i will post an apology if Harry has played a blinder and its a big up round where we get carried up with a material increase in the value of our investment and hard nav...this is what i really believed was on the cards after numis note..now getting somewhat concerned that the lack of news does not play well for ALM shareholders or the prospect of venture capital like returns!

[cousinit] 05/1/2022 13:26

Obviously there are a whole raft of potential reasons for the continued lack of news that could be 100% down to the competence of the Board.

They did raise expectations both with Numis and CRS (as they didn't comment on ALM in November on the basis that there would be an update in December).

I do wonder if the wobble in the NASDAQ (Omicron, Fed, inflation etc) the week before Christmas might have disrupted an agreement on the FW funding round? Concluding off market transactions can often be painful at the best of times, but all too often at least one party tries to play a few games and "what's in this for me?" at the slightest glimpse of an opening.

[casholaa] 05/1/2022 12:07

I think that the broker note struggles to be positive. It may be possible that management are involved in other entities, so it may depend how much time they can allocate.

[kooba] 05/1/2022 11:26

Effective 1/10Dynamic nil pointsToo much talk and no delivery...more bad news on the remaining holdings bye bye Spin and Spark. Only bright spot was the reemergence of Sciflour as OcuTerra Theraputics which appears to have had nothing to do with AM who had written it off..Harry's board appointment still pending i guess.So..Numis 6th October"ALM's announcement of 1H FY21 results today follows its detailed Trading Update for the same period on 11-Aug. At a minimum, we think investors should note two key points. First, during 1H FY21, Federated Wireless (FW) and Orbital Sidekick (OSK) progressed from pre-revenue companies to earning fast-growing, recurring and profitable revenues - we estimate FW/OSK make up for 66%/9% of ALM's total portfolio-company NAV. Second, we think FW, OSK and BridgeComm (we estimate: 17% of ALM's total portfolio-company NAV) are only months away from financial transactions which will show that, in aggregate, ALM is worth significantly more than our estimate of its NAV (46p), let alone its current share price (23p)."The August note referred to multiples of their estimated asset value of 46p.This was based on information given to the brokers by the management who then released it to their clients..no mentions by the company in its interim rns to the owners of the company..their shareholders. But a shop broker note is going to be approved..or should be because the read should be accurate.Begs the question if FW BC and OSK were all at point of the company disclosing such financial transactions (fundraises) to their broker in early Oct how come we are into 2022 without a peep from any of them ?Obviously by far the most important asset is Federated Wireless which always needed funding Q1 '22 , if the board do not manage to protect the company interests from dilution at a level that does not reflect the "strong progress" , move to revenue and the clearer opportunity that is now presented since the last valuation priced in Sept '19 then there needs to be serious consideration on their ability in delivering stated strategy.I'm sure they will let us know what's going on one day ..so we can properly judge the merit of the current management structure and whether serious changes need to be made.

[casholaa] 05/1/2022 10:26

I think it's difficult to find effective and dynamic management these days

[spectoacc] 05/1/2022 10:12

@kooba - thought I'd written that myself for a moment ;)

But surely 2022 has to be the year - wasn't 2019, 2020, or 2021.

[kooba] 05/1/2022 10:02

Well a year on from the strategic update when the Neds took the helm and coming up to three years since the company strategy was to monetise its assts for the benefit of shareholders.(april 2019)..so how's it all going and where are those venture capital like returns we are often promised?Talk of material up round fundings imminent from company broker in early October..waiting.Meanwhile the tech sector since the company set about current strategy in 2019 has soared when ALM assets have continued to fall...there is no evidence that the management are actually meeting the strategic goals at all.

[cousinit] 22/12/2021 15:49

This was posted earlier on the PRIM board, hopefully it also reflects the substantial progress that CRS feel has been accrued but not yet realised:

"And a Merry Xmas to all. Last year the Board spent a great deal of time cleaning up the Company and putting it on a great footing - one of the few investment companies which is trading at a significant discount to NAV. I have great hopes for 2022( as always DYOR).As a significant shareholder myself I will be pushing( along with the other board members) to close that NAV gap and hopefully increase the overall valuation. Remember nothing trades in a straight line, there are detractors who as they sell out become less significant every day - but that's all part of the Aim way it would appear!!!

All the best and hopefully a profitable and safe New Year.

Best
Rupert"

[spectoacc] 22/12/2021 14:41

"Given the substantial progress achieved by the Fund with its activist strategy to date on these holdings.."


Are they taking the p*ss? HUR? ALM? Lost track of DLAR due to their averaging - EQULS too - but ALM has not been "..Substantial progress..".

[kooba] 22/12/2021 14:32

Position on Crystal Amber clearer with todays announcement no imminent sales going to be necessary ..rather hope on this timeframe we are all paid out here!The Fund has accumulated several strategic holdings: since 2013, the Fund has been a shareholder in Hurricane Energy plc (currently 28.9% holding); since 2016, it has been a shareholder in Equals Group plc (currently 20.5% holding); since 2017, it has been a shareholder in Allied Minds (currently 18.2% holding); since 2018, it has been a shareholder in De La Rue plc (currently 9.2% holding) and it has been a shareholder in Sutton Harbour plc for more than a decade (currently 12.1% holding). Given the substantial progress achieved by the Fund with its activist strategy to date on these holdings, the Fund expects to have realised these investments within 24 months.

[believer2] 18/12/2021 00:38

I can’t help but feel something is afoot ? hxxps://www.linkedin.com/posts/federated-wireless_announcement-wireless-iot-activity-6877742672996651008-u_31

[believer2] 16/12/2021 22:32

I’m not sure if the link works but this is from Tim McDonald on Linkdin -

5G in a box by Airspan Networks Amazon Web Services (AWS) private 5G, CBRS open access spectrum powered by Federated Wireless, 5G capacity as a service by DISH Network, along with FreedomFi developing a community-driven neutral host 5G network on CBRS. Wireless is undergoing the great unbundling.

Jim Barksdale famously said that the only way to make money is bundling and unbundling. There is $500+B in market capitalization in the three wireless carriers. 2022 will see the beginning of value migration.

Here’s to a great year in wireless!

[believer2] 16/12/2021 22:32

I’m not sure if the link works but this is from Tim McDonald on Linkdin
5G in a box by Airspan Networks Amazon Web Services (AWS) private 5G, CBRS open access spectrum powered by Federated Wireless, 5G capacity as a service by DISH Network, along with FreedomFi developing a community-driven neutral host 5G network on CBRS. Wireless is undergoing the great unbundling.

Jim Barksdale famously said that the only way to make money is bundling and unbundling. There is $500+B in market capitalization in the three wireless carriers. 2022 will see the beginning of value migration.

Here’s to a great year in wireless!