Allied Minds Share Discussion Threads

[walterwhite1] 02/12/2021 14:11

Yes I quite agree Kooba. AWS can have my shares for 40p each anytime - my breakeven is 36. I don't think ALM management have the capability or desire to extract full value for their shareholders. I originally invested here because Crystal amber were renowned for extracting value, but even they haven't lived up to their billing. Hopefully 2022 will be more forgiving. FED and Bridgecomm will hopefully we valued much higher soon

[kooba] 02/12/2021 09:54

If AWS want a comm's 'n space portfolio with some other nuggets attached and offer 40p per share tomorrow they can have mine.Not because i think that fully reflects the assets potential i just think the management are useless and will not extract that greater value for shareholders through protecting existing holdings from dilution or ever monetising at decent values. They are happy sitting there playing at being listed company directors in their retirement and have no sense of their duty to long term shareholders that have suffered previous disastrous management.We'll see when the Numis significant increase in values from corporate events..fund raises finally materialise if i still feel that way shortly ...hopefully.

[believer2] 02/12/2021 09:37

As long as they don’t get a large tranche back door by purchasing ALM so cheaply ?

[casholaa] 02/12/2021 02:14

@kooba, would not be surprised if aws make a bid to keep the tech in-house

[kooba] 01/12/2021 07:33

They actually put more up on twitter..saying AWS has not yet revealed the SAS ..But this seems a big hint. If it wasn't them not sure they would be making such a song and dance of it !"The radios are cloud-managed, and the Spectrum Access System (SAS), as required by the @FCC for CBRS in the U.S., is included in the service. @AWS has not yet revealed the SAS vendor, but it could be Federated Wireless" via @WireRoy. Read more. bddy.me/3d5jCPfhttps://twitter.com/fedwireless/status/1465814518622265349?s=21

[kooba] 01/12/2021 07:14

Yes they have been partners over a few years with FW using AWS cloud but this is a whole new private network launch that is using shared spectrum...one must presume it is using FW shared spectrum technology....will be a very rapidly expanding market with this kind of ease of set up for customers.Think its a positive.

[spectoacc] 01/12/2021 07:04

I thought Amazon had always been a FW client.

[kooba] 30/11/2021 19:49

https://www.fiercewireless.com/private-wireless/aws-surprises-aws-private-5g

[kooba] 30/11/2021 19:45

Federated tweet ..look whose using their shared spectrum https://twitter.com/fedwireless/status/1465742543174488079?s=21AWS..Amazon Web Services..small outfit.No idea on likely revenues but being selected by Amazon must be good news for FW and I guess Amazon has no love for Federated's biggest rival Google. Another potential buyer for FW down the road. Where's Numis's major corporate action prompting significant value enhancement?

[kooba] 25/11/2021 12:06

Interesting article on the race for space..very relevant to Orbital Sidekick...but also BridgeComm on how you get huge data drops back to earth.https://www.wsj.com/articles/satellite-industry-grows-as-investors-bet-billions-on-space-derived-data-11637577002Note Hawkeye360 mentioned ..i also note they recently raised $145m..not sure how the valuation stacks up against sept 2019 disposal..not sure i want to look.

[kooba] 25/11/2021 10:24

All a bit of guesswork as the company deems it more important to keep their broker informed of potential price sensitive developments and the likely timing than they do their own shareholders.Been two years since Hawkeye disposal now...and next April will be 3 years from the strategic change to maximise monetisation opportunities.The current board said monetisations 2-3 years Jan '21..which pretty much stretched the anticipated monetisation timetable but i understand off record that have said they realise it needs to be quicker and told some shareholders who backed them at agm challenge that would be the case.There is no real evidence that these remaining assets have increased in value over historic book yet but expect we will get that shortly. Really is time they can evidence to the long suffering shareholders that the company is finally moving in the right direction.

[kooba] 25/11/2021 10:11

Or go back to August and think what Numis comment after the portfolio update translates to."We continue to believe that ALM is worth a multiple of our estimate of its NAV per share, which itself is 2.4x the company's last closing share price. We will review our estimate of ALM's fair value when the company details its 1H FY21results in mid-September 2021."They maintained their Hard Nav estimate following the results not released till Oct...you can't effectively change valuation without there being a funding round justifying it...they then gave some timing ..so there should be three transactions coming up shorting which will evidence significant (multiples!!) uplift in the hard Nav.One has to presume term sheets were being worked on in early Oct to prompt that comment ..and also the unexplained reason why the company has not reembarked on the stated aim of buying back $3m of stock with excess capital, they only did $0.7m worth pre results and have not informed shareholders why the programme is not continuing..as stated my guess is they are inside on a number of funding (or less likely monetising ) transactions which will have a positive material impact on the asset value.

[kooba] 24/11/2021 09:19

Lest we forget Numis comment early October..only months away.ALM's announcement of 1H FY21 results today follows its detailed Trading Update for the same period on 11-Aug. At a minimum, we think investors should note two key points. First, during 1H FY21, Federated Wireless (FW) and Orbital Sidekick (OSK) progressed from pre-revenue companies to earning fast-growing, recurring and profitable revenues - we estimate FW/OSK make up for 66%/9% of ALM's total portfolio-company NAV. Second, we think FW, OSK and BridgeComm (we estimate: 17% of ALM's total portfolio-company NAV) are only months away from financial transactions which will show that, in aggregate, ALM is worth significantly more than our estimate of its NAV (46p), let alone its current share price (23p).

[kooba] 24/11/2021 09:15

Re share price i am noting volume in CRS and i believe it could be Saba increasing their holding ..which means they will likely be increasing their short on some of the holdings. They really are not at all aligned with CRS shareholders , and hedged do not care where lines are cleared.
Thing is though they didn’t get majority of shareholders who voted in favour of there resolution block and when you have over 26% of the equity thats not encouraging. They could call a GM to remove board but the numbers suggest they would lose. Any CRS holder should see the managers proposals and consider position carefully. The irony is that since Saba has been on the register the assets have risen by 46% they would have had a great return if they hadn’t hedged!
ALM has not at all helped that performance being at all time lows..but i don’t think for long. Think CRS has no intention of selling this holding in the market down here..pretty sure they could find a premium buyer for holding with full disclosure of where portfolio is , but having been around a while want to see the recovery the company and in particular the company brokers are signalling.
So do not be put off by this drift its likely Saba shorting..if things materialise as i think they will being short here could be a bad place to be. Here’s hoping !

[kooba] 24/11/2021 09:04

My understanding is that the company are currently restricted ie they are aware of price sensitive developments that would deem them inside. This explains why the company have not reestablished a share buyback having failed to complete the last one having deemed there was excess capital..i believe this was because the price moved above their buy level ..a 54% discount to hard NAV attractive to buy back ..a 52% discount seems to have been unattractive as they didn't fulfil buyback with any purchases above 21p. Nuts!It would also mean the directors are restricted in buying too.My guess is that there are at least 2 portfolio companies in advance process of raising funds..FW and BridgeComm...i would expect both to be meaningful up rounds but nothing is done till its done.As shareholders and board members they are inside..hence above. I also think Orbital Sidekick could be back again soon again on an up round ..extremely hot space.

[spectoacc] 24/11/2021 08:55

Were a couple of director buys back in August, 100k x2 by Bruce Failing.

That name still makes me chuckle - was he called that before he got the job?

{@kooba - when are you expecting this FW fundraise?].

[buffettjnr] 24/11/2021 08:42

surely our amazing ALM board should be buying shares back by truckload now on this share price weakness which has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company?

[ohisay] 24/11/2021 08:25

Increased discount to Nav is usually an opportunity ...

[believer2] 24/11/2021 07:55

How do you mean “more opportunity” ?
Bloody hedge funds.

[ohisay] 24/11/2021 02:15

IC yesterday..

Activist investor Crystal Amber Fund (CRS) has suffered a shareholder mutiny of its own. The company lost a continuation vote at its annual general meeting on Monday, meaning it now has to “reorganise, reconstruct or wind-up” its portfolio.

If the fund is now forced to offload its assets, this could be bad news for investors in some of its main holdings: De La Rue (DLAR), Equals (EQLS), Hurricane Energy (HUR) and Allied Minds (ALM).

The insurrection was led by US hedge fund Saba Capital, which had acquired more than a quarter of Crystal Amber’s shares. It has also built up short positions in De La Rue and Allied Minds, in anticipation that the share price of these companies will now take a hit.



More opportunity than crisis I think ..

[kooba] 23/11/2021 10:28

Good spot ..piece links neatly into article talking about the close relationship with Federated working on DoD 5G initiative...FW seem well inside the tent and as often is the case technology accelerated through big defence budgets often emerges as the industry front runner."The Department of Defense is leading a $600 million effort to architect and deploy the largest 5G wireless initiative to test how the military can use 5G technology for its own purposes as well as a broader effort to lead the world in 5G."https://wia.org/blog/u-s-military-partners-with-wireless-industry-for-5g-test-bed/

[believer2] 22/11/2021 23:05

I have been following Tim McDonald and there is this piece put up by FW this evening regarding a Dept of Defense team up ??? hxxps://www.linkedin.com/posts/trmcdonald_5g-activity-6868668383311773696-Sa0A

[kooba] 20/11/2021 16:37

Understandable shareholders might be uncertain when Allied Minds website still shows TableUp when it was sold August 2020. Wonder where the $5m central cost goes exactly? Certainly sums up the comms effort.http://www.alliedminds.com/about-us-2/

[kooba] 20/11/2021 15:54

Yep that is correct TouchBistro bought out Table Top and allied minds received $6m worth of TouchBistro stock (sub 1% outstanding ) in exchange. They still retain the TouchBistro stake which I hope could be worth substantially more than the $6m current book valuation.TouchBistro has talked about IPO last year and valuations in the sector have boomed..note recent float Toast.