Alliance Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[mazarin] 20/12/2013 16:24

I'm amused to note that Wednesday 'Proactive Investors' quoted finnCap's future target price for APH as '38.5p'. If today's positive movement is anything to go by, may I suggest that finnCap analysts sit down and do some more 'work'.

PS. Cisk - Glad to see you're still 'on board' and reaping the benefits..

[cisk] 20/12/2013 14:28

I'll take boring any day if it buys some shares in a company like APH. Having met John Dawson several times, he's a straight-talking guy who is passionate about his company.

Can only echo the comments from others re: CULS - indeed I asked John Dawson if they would ever issue more to finance a deal - empathic reply was no. The CULS have been a depressant on the stock for a long time, as soon as the price ticked up a few more were converted. Hopefully we'll see the shares north of 40p in the new year.

Re: lypsyl - it's a very well respected brand; I used it as a kid and a quick straw poll of coworkers indicates that many did as well. Maybe an opportunity to build a more youthful brand (after all, APH has Ashton & Parsons as well)?

Regardless, it's a great company which should be relatively immune to a market sell-off, should it occur.

[davebowler] 20/12/2013 12:49

'Alliance intends to reinvest a proportion of the gross margin in marketing activity to promote the brand.'
This seems a significant phrase in the statement ,to me especially if as you say it is a much loved brand with a 50% market share.I wonder if they could use the brand name for complementary products?

[mazarin] 20/12/2013 12:37

'This is more like it' - 3 clicks up so far....this morning...!

[norbert colon] 20/12/2013 09:26

2vdm. You are not alone. I first started buying in Jan 2011 (3 years as well) at around 31p and other than collecting dividends (and reinvesting) I did not add further until the dip in August when I trebled my holding.

Few things to keep in mind with APH:

- EPS has doubled over the last 5 years
- Dividend has increased every year for last 5 years (covered around 4x)
- Book Value increased 8 fold since 2007 and 10 fold (projected by y/e 2014)!
- Yield 2.4%
- PE of around 10
- CULS now cleared
- Immucyst coming back on line (generated £2m of gross margin before suspension)
- Gross profit margin >50%
- Net earnings (as % of revenue) - excellent at 35% ish
- Excellent ROCE
- Interest very well covered
- Heaps of cash on balance sheet
- Acquisition hungry
- John Dawson owns circa 10% hence plenty of skin in the game
- Nigel Wray has a large holding and added 885k of shares in March this year.
- Slaters are major holders.

Capital preservation......

Patience is needed thats all. Hard to do when small caps up 30+ % this year but I am holding firming onto my shares.

Nobby

[2vdm] 20/12/2013 08:44

I hope you are both right. I've been sitting on this for 3 years at just over 38p, waiting for some progress in the share price Well at least it hasn't tanked like so many others, but nevertheless a bit boring. Roll on 2014.

[mazarin] 19/12/2013 16:35

CULS have certainly been a negative feature on 'sp' progress and I'm only too glad to see its passing, an influence made worse since mid 2012 by the marked absence of income derived from Immucyst sales. Hopefully by early 2014 Sanofi Pasteur's production plant should be fully back on track, although it's now unlikely APH will recover the market share it once had.

[norbert colon] 19/12/2013 15:53

Good news that those damn CULS are finally cleared - EPS has been effectively diluated by about 8% this year due to new shares (primarily due to the 4.2m GBP of CULS) so good riddance and a great start to 2014.

[norbert colon] 19/12/2013 11:21

Some interesting random facts and it seems my comments about chapped lipped not going away was quite pertinent as I see that LypSyl has been made in Sweden for over 100 years (!) and was launched in the US around 2007

hxxp://www.lypsylhome.com/lypsylstory.html

Lots of glowing reports on Amazon from customers who seem to prefer it over Chapstick or other brands. Chaptick also been around since 1912.

At one point (dont have any dates but could be from 1990's so way out of date) Lypsyl had around 50% of the UK market share with Chapstick and others at around 26% each.

hxxp://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2010/invest-in-the-lip-balm-portfolio-pfe-ul-hain-clx-ltd1005.aspx

Seems potential growing market for male grooming products (yes admit it we all use them).

All of this said there is some serious competition but I think that a certainly a lot of people still buy the simple chapstick / lypsyl tube when at the till in their local shop or Boots etc rather than browsing through the multitude of more expensive / trendy / new brands. All IMHO !

[mazarin] 19/12/2013 10:37

Norbert - I too share your concerns re: Lypsyl and its competition in the market place. I also think that once bought, Lypsyl is quite a long lasting product, that may not generate a high ratio of repeat sales per individual, however, APH BOD are shrewd enough to appreciate all of this and clearly see scope to market 'Lypsyl' more effectively, hence they're decision to re-invest in marketing.

I note this has been funded from available cash and APH BOD still have funds in place for more 'clinically targeted' products, so I don't expect this current acquisition to be the only 'arrow in their quiver' short term. The 'sp' has been steadily ticking up over recent weeks and I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear more news, sooner rather than later.

[norbert colon] 19/12/2013 10:09

I refer back to my posts 360 / 361.....I bought the stuffing out of that huge dip to 31p and very glad I did too. Mr Market etc.

[norbert colon] 19/12/2013 09:43

Interesting purchase for 2.5 x sales Dave. Seems pricy to me but great gross margin and hopefully they can perk sales up in what is now a market full of alternative lip care products. With reference to the great man Buffett quote about chewing gum and forward earnings / the internet etc - lip care aint gonna go away and I think this has lots of potential.

APH, great little company and I have every intention of keeping my shares long term.

[davebowler] 19/12/2013 08:56

UK Analyst;
Pharmaceutical group Alliance Pharma (APH) announced the acquisition of the UK and Republic of Ireland related rights to Lypsyl from Novartis AG, in a deal worth $3 million (1.84 million pounds). Lypsyl has been on our shelves for years and is a well-known personal care brand used to moisturise lips. Over the 12 months ended September 2013, total sales generated from Lypsyl in the UK and ROI were 1.2 million pounds and the gross margin generated was 0.5 million pounds. Alliance said that the acquisition will be immediately earnings enhancing and argued that it fits in well with its strategy of placing an increased focus on consumer care sales. The shares remained flat at 37.5p.

[mazarin] 21/11/2013 18:00

I see that 392,420 shares were bought today and notably a 200k 'buy' went through at 1628 hrs, finally resulting in a miniscule 'tick up' at the end of trading today. Earlier on 2.3k were 'apparently' sold, seemingly having no effect on the 'sp'. In the past such 'minor' activity usually indicates a session of small rises over a period of weeks following, often as not, ahead of news that finally produces a sizeable shift up once the news is officially announced. Its been a while since we've had any news of further acquisitions, so perhaps the 'sp' is just reacting to speculation or rumour? As ever, time will tell, but I do currently sense that something is 'afoot'...!

[mazarin] 20/11/2013 14:58

Been a bit quiet here lately so have included a 'recommend' I found today from Broker on APH see : www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/63427/alliance-pharma-attractive-for-dividend-seekers-reckons-broker-dowgate-63427.html

[aim_trader] 26/10/2013 15:09

John Dawson, CEO will be in Dublin on Tuesday speaking to investors at The Shelbourne Hotel, 6pm, followed by complimentary wine and canape reception. Registration page:

[2vdm] 11/10/2013 08:10

Agree pimpernel4. Good management, niche market and a war chest to fund acquisitions. Not a bad position to be in.

[pimpernel4] 11/10/2013 07:40

Great vote of confidence from the banks.

-----------

11 October 2013

ALLIANCE PHARMA PLC

("Alliance" or the "Company")

GBP55 Million Bank Facilities

Alliance Pharma plc (AIM: APH), the speciality pharmaceutical company, announces that it has successfully negotiated new enlarged bank facilities of GBP55 million with Lloyds Bank and Royal Bank of Scotland on improved terms.

[mazarin] 25/9/2013 20:56

This pattern of regular but miniscule rises indicate that buyers are aware of/or are anticipating something better is 'in the pipeline'. Against a persistent background of 'life draining' CULS, these small rises in the share price are even more significant.

[norbert colon] 16/9/2013 17:16

Pleased to see a big chunk of CULS converted today rather than the usual drip feed.

[woodcutter] 16/9/2013 14:50

i sold my holding today, for a 12% profit based on a number of considerations:

Not a lot of cash on the balance sheet so i figure more funds need to be raised for further acquisitions, increasing debt in the process. The convertible debt will add a couple of percent to the shares issued when converted.

pricing agreement although only 50% of sales will most likely restrict profit growth.

growth in sales was 4% but growth in admin expense was 12% compared to last H1. I know this was more than offset by the gross margin improvement of 8% but i'm not sure that's sustainable so after much deliberation i took the profit.

operating cashflow not as good as i'd hoped either.

Will watch closely for any fall back to 30pish and reconsider then.........if it happens.

Woody

[2vdm] 13/9/2013 08:30

I still like this company. It has a good strategy, is profitable and the BOD has its finger on the pulse. It will probably drift a bit now until/unless an acquisition or major contract is announced, but if drifts too far, I have no doubt that serious investors will pick up stock at the cheaper prices. Any chartists out there who can provide an insight please?

[pyemckay] 11/9/2013 18:06

markets look ahead and the mention of pricing pressures certainly caught the eye.