Alliance Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[cisk] 21/1/2014 13:00

Mazarin, I'm sure it won't have helped, but remember collectively Booley still has 4.3m shares, and they have sold less than 10% of their holding.

Given we're near the end of January, perhaps there was some tax to pay or something - who knows.

[mazarin] 21/1/2014 12:17

Executive Director Anthony Booley can hardly be said to have done much to make the current 'poor situation' better for APH....!

[cisk] 16/1/2014 19:49

Mazarin, I guess it depends on the faith of your conviction. if you believe in the company then hold, if not, sell.

To have such a dramatic fall in the share price for no apparent reason (pre-close did not contain any surprises) in a very short timeframe is bound to cause jitters with long term holders. In fact, that's especially what market makers count on, squeeze out a few nervous sellers then bump the price up again.

The traded volume doesn't shout institutional selling. The last time we had such a sharp fall (July/August 2013) it was followed by a sharp rise. I think the price certainly got ahead of itself before Xmas and some retrenchment was necessary.

Pye might be bearish and have his own reasons for wanting the price lower - entry point at 30p as he's stated - if so, I'll be topping up at those levels because the p/e will be well below 10 at the point, very cheap for this company.

Remember you'll never get rich by following everyone else. I first bought at 20p, sold at 10p, bought back at 5p (when they effectively stopped r&d into the sleep drug) and have bought and sold occasionally ever since. If you like the company, take a long term view and take advantage of tree shakes.

[pyemckay] 16/1/2014 19:13

getting closer to a sensible valuation of 30p. the market agrees .

[mazarin] 16/1/2014 17:58

I have to admit as a long term holder of APH, this week's series of repeated daily selling is rather disappointing, particularly on the back of a steady holding phase after Christmas following an encouraging rise in the 'sp' well ahead of this week's news. I'm strongly resisting the temptation to 'sell' in the belief that matters can only get better and common sense will prevail. I assume that holders have progressively become more nervous as each mark down serves to shake their confidence in their perception of the current fortunes of APH.

[pyemckay] 15/1/2014 20:11

Running to stand still. 40 odd million in aquisitions for little progress. sometimes you need to put things in perspective.
would consider at 30p. getting closer.

[bamboo2] 15/1/2014 19:41

stopped out this a.m. :(

[pyemckay] 14/1/2014 23:33

how much sales do ashton parsons draw in? used that with my daughter when she was a baby.

[cisk] 14/1/2014 20:14

pye - while I'm a fan of APH, your comments have certainly given me pause to remember why I invested in this company in the first place.

You're right - it's not a company that will suddenly grow at 50% in a year - but then it's not one that will do the opposite either.

It has (relatively) stable earnings, with the potential to enhance sales of established products through sales and promotional effort, that were often overlooked by previous owners.

If APH can assemble related products and push these through a niche sale force - then this would become a very profitable niche.

For example - selling parsons to infants, then lypsil to children etc - you could see, how over time, these would become complimentary and could do well.

I think it's priced right currently, with a p/e around 10-11 and yield of 2.6% (but growing).

Add in cash generation, a large stake held by John Dawson & family and, for me, it sits well in a place in my portfolio for stable businesses with potential upside.

For me, the biggest disappointment, was the delay in getting ashton & parsons moving again - from anecdotal evidence I believe this product could do so much better. I remember a new line being commissioned in Q4 2013 - so not sure what the delay is.

The toxicology slowdown has already been well flagged by the company so should not be a surprise to any who follow the company.

[pyemckay] 14/1/2014 19:03

read the first page of the report marazin.

turnover flat for 5 years
profits trending down.

whats to like here?

[pyemckay] 14/1/2014 19:00

hxxp://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/4738771/FLASH-Investec-cuts-Alliance-Pharma-to-sell-from-reduce-target-cut-from-33p-to-30p.html

[pyemckay] 14/1/2014 18:58

downgraded to 30p today which is harsh. Its reasonably priced now as its a very low growth share. 32p might tempt me.

[mazarin] 14/1/2014 18:49

Alliance Pharma has negotiated to acquire the rights to thyroid product Irenat from pharma giant Bayer, representing its first acquisition in Germany. Last year sales of Irenat were €800,000 giving a gross margin of €500,000, and while Bayer were unwilling to reveal the price paid by Alliance, broker finnCap estimates the price tag to be around the €1-1.5mln mark. Today's market response, is perhaps not quite the one APH would have wished.

[mazarin] 13/1/2014 10:35

A comprehensive research report issued 5th Dec13 for APH by Hardman & Co on the Company is, IMO worth the read, if you have a little time to spare. It makes some interesting and informative reading.

[bamboo2] 13/1/2014 10:17

Trading Update put back to tomorrow.

[mazarin] 09/1/2014 23:46

Fully understand, but try to keep Headers up to date when I still hold an interest

[bamboo2] 09/1/2014 17:52

lol, so used to headers being out of date I didn't look.

[mazarin] 09/1/2014 17:21

Trading Update date is in the header...! 13th Jan 2014

[bamboo2] 09/1/2014 17:16

..that looks to be the about 50% retraction. Probably start to see buying around this level. Is there a trading statement due?

[bamboo2] 07/1/2014 08:11

Steep rises in the share price often retract about 50% soon after, so this could drop a little further, before buyers come back.

Often a chart will then form a flag or pennant consolidation pattern, before continuing on its way.

edited for clarity

[cisk] 06/1/2014 18:27

PTH, I wouldn't worry, fairly low volume, probably market makers talking the stock down on the back of a fairly sharp rise last month

[petethehippy] 06/1/2014 17:04

What happened today?

[mazarin] 31/12/2013 17:47

Just for the record I see from Alliance Pharma's own Investor page that today's Share Price closed at 41p, as a result of just 2 trades (total volume 50,000) shares. My broker (iii) still has it at 40p, whereas ADVFN seemingly has at 40.5p.

Sooner or later I've no doubt whatever the correct price is, it'll get adjusted. Either way, its been a relatively good end to the year for APH that closed 29% up overall, with a promise of increasing dividends and hopefully more 'value enhancing' acquisitions to follow.

[bamboo2] 30/12/2013 09:37

cheers bert

[norbert colon] 30/12/2013 09:33

Yes confirmed. Check recent RNS's.