Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[roghart1] 11/3/2024 17:08

Paul McDade, Afentra CEO, is delighted to be on the West Africa Energy Summit Advisory Board, 3rd - 5th September 2024, Accra. We will be shaping future roadmaps for regional energy security as well as showcasing the most compelling oil, gas and energy projects in West Africa.

[dcarn] 08/3/2024 09:17

The Diamondway is currently alongside in Saldanha after arriving yesterday at 09:03.

I would expect unloading to be completed over the weekend.

[tim000] 07/3/2024 16:33

Of course we are, we’re importing a Third World population who are increasingly exerting political pressure on a Third World political party. Strange though that the “Conservative” government thinks there is political advantage in copying those policies.

[onedayrodders] 07/3/2024 16:28

UK is broke .. Councils lining up to declare bankruptcy ... NI tax budget break will be eaten up by Council Tax rises .. all a load of nonsense and depressing

We are slowly but surely transitioning into a 3rd world country .. might take a few decades but it's coming

Certainly not pressuring my kids for grandchildren .. in fact the complete opposite

[mount teide] 07/3/2024 16:13

UK Government's O&G Windfall Tax is a racket worthy of the Mafia!

Less than 24 hrs after the UK Chancellor extended the UK O&G Windfall 75% tax take by a further year to 2029, Harbour Energy, the North Sea's largest O&G producer, reported its 2023 Results:

* Profit before Tax of $0.6bn (2022: $2.5bn)

* Profit after Tax of $32m (2022: $8m)

* Reflecting an EFFECTIVE 2023 tax rate of 95% (2022: 100%)

Unsurprisingly, Harbour Energy's investment cash is now targeting areas of the world which offer far more competitive fiscal rates/operating terms. In this respect Harbour Energy will find themselves spoilt for choice, since some O&G producers like Angola and Malaysia have already gone in the opposite direction, by slashing the Government fiscal take and/or materially improving the operating terms, to attract more investment, to prevent the assets from becoming 'stranded'.

[mount teide] 06/3/2024 11:31

This reads well.

Angola - New Board of the ANPG, the National Concessionaire and Regulator of the O&G Industry, expected to further sweeten the operating environment(fiscal arrangements) to a level more competitive than its global peers to accelerate investment in the O&G sector, in an effort to target a near doubling of production to 2.0m bopd over the med-long term.


'A new Board of Administrators was recently appointed at the ANPG, national concessionaire and industry regulator, the National Oil, Gas & Biofuels Agency following the end of the previous board’s mandate.....

....The new board is expected to double down on efforts to improve the operating environment for investors making Angola more competitive when compared to its peers globally. The ANPG’s primary focus will remain on accelerating exploration in Angola towards increased production......

....Angola plans to increase oil production to 1.18m bpd this year with the goal of reaching previous heights of close to 2m bpd in the mid- to long-term, following an expected boom in new exploration.

....To this effect, Angola is inviting global E&P companies to invest in exploration to achieve this goal. The country concluded its most recent oil licensing round – a 12-block tender featuring blocks in the Lower Congo and Kwanza basins saw 53 bids submitted – in January 2024, with the next round scheduled for 2025. '....Angola O&G 5th March

[kevjones2] 06/3/2024 11:26

I was invested in a few companies based in Africa. They very much go at their own pace. Time and time again, just when I thought an RNS was coming, the news was delayed. So I have no problems waiting here. It'll happen when it happens.

[lauders] 06/3/2024 01:25

Should be an update on the Diamondway shipment and Azule deal soon surely. Perhaps a combined one? That should really do wonders for the share price if it becomes reality. Anyway, not much of Q1 to go so perhaps some FOMO buying may be on the horizon?

[highly geared] 04/3/2024 16:45

Hopefully this starts to motor once Azule becomes official.

[mount teide] 03/3/2024 13:31

Angola - Sonangol Asset Divestment Programme

In June 2022, Sonangol began a process to hunt for partners in blocks 3/05, 4/05, 5/06, 15/06, 18, 23, 27 and 31 in an effort to attract new investors to boost oil and gas production and also reduce its financial obligations.

Ten years ago and more, a barrel-load of bidders would have battled to enter these blocks, which offer exploration, development and production opportunities aplenty in a country once considered the oil world’s El Dorado.... Upstream 2021

'Admittedly, under the regime of former president Jose Eduardo dos Santos, few companies apart from incumbent supermajors — or those close to Sonangol, the ruling clan and its running dogs — would have had a realistic chance of acquiring these assets.

Many deals would have been agreed behind closed doors, with only those in the know and with strong Angolan relationships standing a chance of being successful.

But times have changed. Angola’s President Joao Lourenco genuinely seems to want things done by the book, with increased transparency the order of the day — as reflected in the formal bid agenda for this Sonangol farm-out process covering deep-water and shallow-water blocks.

While these "open book" efforts are laudable, they coincide with the energy transition, so it will be a challenging time for any competitive acreage bid process.

Jersing, currently business development advisor to privately owned exploration start-up Eburon Resources, described the three offshore blocks as “heartlandR21; plays with significant producing fields plus development and exploration upside. “They will go for hundreds of $millions because they are extraordinary assets,” he said.

Another block with promise is 3/05, where operator Sonangol wants to reduce its 50% stake. A non-operating stake in this asset could be in the sweet spot for acquisitive Afentra, the investment vehicle of former Tullow Oil chief executive Paul McDade, and also Vaalco Energy, Jersing said....."The exercise will attract interest from new companies,” but warned, “we’re not in the golden age of the oil industry......suggested bids could be based on future oil prices of $55 to $60 per barrel." '


Interesting to note that Sonangol elected to choose preferred bidders for the offshore acreage farm-out of these first eight assets put up for divestment.

Afentra was one of six initial bidders on shallow water block 3/05, which proved one of the most highly regarded and bid-on.

After the dust settled and smoke cleared on the auction process, Afentra, indigenous player Somoil, and Namibia’s state oil company Namcor were among the major winners for the various assets, while 10 bidders failed to get selected to make the grade.

The successful bids and financial return projections for the eight assets up for auction would, without question, have been based/heavily influenced by the $57.28/bbl average oil price during the seven year period prior to the announcement of the auction.

Afentra's Q1/2023 Presentation of the Valuation Summary of the Block 3/05 Deal, confirms this view:

'Sustained current oil price environment($70-80/bbl) has potential to deliver >50% value increase'
'Afentra Investment case and upside potential provides an additional 30% value increase'
'Robust asset economics with a breakeven of $35/bbl'
'Potential to improve and maintain opex $20/bbl'
'Every 1% increase in recovery from OIIP of 3 billion bbls delivers 30 mmbbl'
'Minimal capex required to realise 2P case of 115.2 mmbbl'
'Multiple low-cost opportunities to increase future production'
'Significant upside from 2C & 3C resources with potential for further upgrades'


With a consensus 2024/25 Brent forecast of $80-$90/bbl, this asset has the potential to annually throw off free cash equivalent to multiples of the final price paid for the asset, after adjustment for the financial benefit accrued from the effective economic date of the deal.

AIMHO/DYOR

[croasdalelfc] 01/3/2024 08:06

Webcast at 09:00 with Q&A - there might be a few snippets on Angola hTTps://www.maureletprom.fr/en/article/2023-annual-results-webcast-audio-1st-march-2024

[croasdalelfc] 01/3/2024 07:32

Development capex pro rata for AET $22.5m

[croasdalelfc] 01/3/2024 07:29

hTTps://www.maureletprom.fr/en/documents/download/1561/2023-annual-results

[croasdalelfc] 01/3/2024 07:29

M&P : forecast 2024 production of 21500 bopd on block 3/05 (presumably inc planned Q3 shutdown.No news on block 3/05A but I expect continued production testing.I anticipate guidance of 5500-6500 bopd for 2024 from AET to account for unplanned downtime .

[croasdalelfc] 01/3/2024 07:26

I doubt it will be announced - but payment is a few days/week after the offtake as it becomes buyers oil at that point.

[noramping] 29/2/2024 13:54

When will the proceeds of the oil sale be announced/paid?

[someuwin] 29/2/2024 13:36

Cheers MT - I thought you might know a bit more about such things than GPT.

[mount teide] 29/2/2024 12:58

someuwin - from a technical perspective, the ChatGPT 'calculation' is a crude(in more ways than one!) calculation that was very lucky to have come out remotely close to the actual figure loaded in barrels - as its based solely on the internal volume change between the loaded and arrival draught, as opposed to taking into consideration the often large number of variables that must be taken into account to accurately complete such a calculation.


The tanker will have completed the sea passage to the FSO in ballast (ie, most of the seawater ballast tanks will be filled with tens of thousands of tonnes of sea water).

During loading of the oil cargo, for safety purposes some of the seawater ballast will be discharged to ensure the optimum stability of the ship is maintained and, in preparation for the sea passage to the oil refinery.

The Diamondway is a small VLCC and has a total oil cargo capacity of circa 1.07m bbls - so the 450,000 bbl cargo lifted will have been loaded in just a relatively small number of cargo tanks......supplemented by a now reduced but still materially significant volume of seawater ballast in many of the wing tanks for optimum stability purposes on the return sea leg.

So, the change in the draught of the tanker will not be solely due to the amount of cargo loaded but in addition would need to be adjusted for the net change in the amount of water ballast - and adjusted further for the change in hull form/internal volume at various draught levels, and weight differential per cubic metre between the volumes of sea-water and oil etc.

[itsriskythat] 29/2/2024 12:01

That ChatGPT calculation is impressive. Scary how many people could be out of a job.

[itsriskythat] 29/2/2024 11:55

Unusual to see such a large sell go through. That’s 450,000 sold at 38.5p. It’s hopefully loss of patience waiting for Azule and nothing more.

[someuwin] 29/2/2024 10:57

...I noticed on ShipTracker that they give a few details of the Tanker concerned. Being bored, I asked ChatGPT the following question based on the numbers available...

"An Oil tanker with Length = 277m and width=48m has an initial draught of 9.6m. After filling with oil has a draught of 15.5m. How many barrels of oil has it taken onboard?"

This was the response...



Obviously this is a simplification and the real figure will be less due to hull shape and internal configuration etc. So this calculation comes out surprisingly close to the anticipated 450,000 barrels of oil.

[tim000] 28/2/2024 15:13

Crude oil tanker Diamondway has now departed FSO Palanca.