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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afentra Plc | AET | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | 3.98% | 47.00 | 16:35:15 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.30 | 45.30 | 47.90 | 47.00 | 45.20 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| OIL & GAS PRODUCERS |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 27/4/2024 13:02 by onedayrodders Baron Investments@baroninvestment A very encouraging meeting held with #AET. Confidence further enhanced #Afentra |
Posted at 26/4/2024 14:39 by cf456 "A very encouraging meeting held with #AET. Confidence further enhanced #Afentra" |
Posted at 19/4/2024 21:48 by tim000 AET’s assets do seem like the proverbial gold mine. It will just take a little time to get each field up to peak efficiency. As non-operator, AET management have the time to focus on M&A to replicate this business model. The potential of the company looks amazing. |
Posted at 12/4/2024 13:35 by mount teide YY - Ref: Production costs per bbl - have not seen any specific data.However, what we do know is that after the second working interest on the Block 3/05 asset was announced in July 2022, the following information was provided: * Break even economics of $35/bbl * Potential to improve OPEX to $20/bbl * Average FCF, after Capex, of $30m PA at $75 Brent. * Average production of circa 16,800 bopd when AET first commenced asset negotiations Since then, the following changes have been reported based on completion of the Sonangol (18%) and INA (5.33%) deal metrics: * Potential to improve and MAINTAIN OPEX at $20/bbl * Average FCF, after Capex, of $35m PA at $75 Brent. * Full year 2022 gross production of 18,660 bopd * Minimum Capex to realise P2 Case of 115 million bbls Post the Azule completion: * Average FCF, after Capex of $50m PA at $75 Brent based on 18,600 bopd (at $90 Brent and 22,550 bopd the FCF could potentially increase to $60-$70m a year). * Average production March 2024 of 22,500 bopd (recent peak of 25,000 bopd YE 2023) * Every 1% incremental recovery factor = 9 million bbls additional resources net to AET * Debt - If the Azule deal closes during the next few weeks, assuming an average of current Brent price and an average of 22,500 bopd production, AET is likely to be debt free during Q3/2024. * Apparently 80% of management time has been spent on M&A in the last 18 months . IR confirmed in January 2024 that the next webinar and strategy presentation will come after completion of Azule. * Infill Drilling Campaign for 2025-26 - first for over 20 years, will be interesting when considering that Pacassa alone has another circa 500m barrels. Thoughts: A further 5,000 bopd deal during 2024 with similar non dilutive metrics could well see AET trading at 100p plus. AIMHO/DYOR |
Posted at 06/4/2024 23:04 by xxnjr tim000,good question "MT: rather than apportion sales volumes per cargo according to field interests, it appears AET is allocated a proportion of cargoes per annum. That is very odd, for example it means pricing and end-of-year inventory could vary significantly between partners according to when they were allocated cargoes. Unless there is some accounting balancing procedure at, say, the end of each calendar year. Do you know exactly how the allocation of oil revenues is handled? Thanks." Unless I misunderstood your central point tim000, I'm not sure this is "very odd", at least in 'West Africa'. For example in Ghana dedicated cargoes are allocated to equity partners; Tullow, Kosmos, GNPC in respect of Jubilee and TEN fields and to ENI, Vitol, GNPC in respect of Sankofa field, respective to their equity share of fields. I believe this is pretty standard practise. At least in 'West Africa'. One recent exception has been where as part of Impact's farm out deal with Total Energies in Namibia, Impact elected to share their cargoes with Total as it would facilitate oil sales and reduce price volatility but that was driven by the structure of that particular farm out deal whereby Total were providing Impact a gross carry before netting out of say $6bn to $8bn to first oil (all seismic, exploration wells, development wells and first fpso development to 1st oil) with the carry being reclaimed out of a portion of Impact's revenues once Namibia production starts. In effect an interest free loan from Total to Impact. But once the 'loan' is repaid Impact will revert to dedicated cargoes. But getting back to what I believe is fairly standard practise in Angola and elsewhere in 'West Africa', (1) as MT mentioned, the price is what it is when a dedicated cargo loads to tanker for export from the Palanca FSO. This is usually 5 day ave brent price from Bill of Lading date, adjusted for oil grade and in the case of Afentra, whatever 'take' Trafigura apply under the Trafigura Offtake Agreement. The revenue goes to whichever partner that particular cargo was allocated to and (2) at year end in the accounts for each partner there will be either an "overlift" or "underlift" to take account of any variances between equity produced barrels and actual volume of barrels offloaded by allocated tanker cargos. To your point on pricing/revenues; yes there may well be timing/pricing anomalies in any one year but over say 20 yrs of a typical field life the "pluses and minuses" will in all likelihood average out to such an extent that individual equity partners carry that risk themselves. But of course smaller, non IOC/NOC type companies usually will additionally offset part of that risk through their OP hedging strategies. |
Posted at 04/4/2024 01:32 by matt3893 AET has a decent telegram group can be found by searching #aet telegram On twitter |
Posted at 28/3/2024 08:50 by cf456 Baron keen on AET"Holding Afentra still screening as one of the highest free cash yields for 2024. Production outperforming expectations, oil prices strong. The Azule transaction is set to close in due course, balance sheet grows and M&A optionality really steps up. Exciting times ahead in view. #AET" |
Posted at 20/12/2023 14:57 by ashkv Share Price - AET: 37.5AET Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 18.85p on 24 Mar 23: 92.31% AET Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 34p on 11 Dec 23: 10.29% Brent: $80.10 Shares Outstanding: 220,053,520 Market Cap (GBP): £82,520,070 GBPUSD: 1.265 Market Cap (USD): $104,387,889 Production Average FY 2022: 4,478 Production Assuming Acquisition Completion 3/05 & 3/05A (Nov 2023): 6,427 Block 3/05 2023 Production Forecast as of 8 Dec 23 (AET 30%): 5,730 Cash (HY 2023 Results): $15,700,000 Cash Outlay For Equity Component of Acquisitions: $20,700,000 Net Debt Forecast YE 2023 at $75 Brent (8 Dec 23 RNS) : $20,700,000 AET Crude Stock at $75 Brent (8 Dec 23): $11,900,000 Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - Cash at HY 22) (USD): $125,087,889 EV/Barrel (FY 2022 Production Average): $27,931 EV/Barrel Production Assuming Acquisition Completion 3/05 & 3/05A (Nov 2023): $19,463 EV/Barrel Block 3/05 2023 Production Forecast as of 8 Dec 23 (AET 30%): $21,830 EV/Barrel November 2023 Production including YE Crude Stock: $17,611 2P Reserves Post Revised Acquisitions: 33,000,000 EV/2P: $3.79 |
Posted at 24/10/2023 14:25 by zengas AET should mirror Panoros growthPanoro 3 year history on production, revenue, reserves, net debt, dividends and m/cap. 2020 Production = 2200 bopd. Revenue $26.9m. Cash $5.7m. Debt $21.3m. -------------------- 9th Feb 2021 Eq Guinea & Gabon acquisitions of 6900 bopd + 25 mmbo 2P for $140m . Financed with $70m placing and debt of $90m from Trafigura. 113m shares in issue 21 NOK at this date = N2.37 billion = £174m m/cap. -------------------- RNS 23/2/22 = Year end 2021 Production 7495 bopd. Total 35.8 mmbo P2, Revenue $119.7m. Net debt $72m . RNS 30/11/22 = "USD 20 million core dividend paid on a quarterly basis in cash weighted towards H2 and subject to average oil price realisation remaining above USD 80 per barrel after the effects of any hedging. Target distribution for 2023 of USD 30 million subject to higher oil price realisation of USD 90 per barrel being achieved for the year after the effects of any hedging" -------------------- 2023 Production Q1 = 6,320 bopd H1 2023 results = Revenue $66m. 'Net debt' at 30/6/23 = $50.4m Working interest production averaged 7,220 bopd in the first half (H1 2022: 7,860 bopd). 71m NOK paid out in Dividends to end H1 = $6.7m paid out so far for H1 $6.7m paid out so far for H1. 117m shares in issue NOK 30 = N3.5 Billion = £260m m/cap against a an average broker target price of $4.18 or £390m m/cap -------------------- AET = same 2P, approx 6,600 bopd. A $10m future dividend = 3.5p or 12.5% at the current share price or 3.3% yield at a £1 target price = £220.5m m/cap or 15% discount to Panoro. Should track Panoros rising production via 3/05 peak target programme and 3/05A commercial start up - not to mention any further acquisitions. |
Posted at 10/5/2023 16:30 by zengas Sunbed I think both have tremendous growth potential. Saves gas business alone is huge given it's infrastructure. I think there'll be further acquisitions beyond those currently and like i say it's how they fall in terms of announcing/completioSave doesn't intend to pay major dividends ($10m to start and i can see that delayed for now possibly due to Chad) as they direct funds into growing a renewables division which should add significant value in its own right. A $10m dividend from say a 10k bopd production profile for AET would be a very decent return if the shares in issue stay at 220.5m - would be about 13% at these levels. So could be good value from a dividend if it gets closer say to $20m in say 2 years. I sold down ENQ2 bonds and IPF to build a better position in AET in terms of potential value for capital growth and dividend but happy to hold both SAVE/AET. I posted here on 3/4/23 (637) re Panoro Panoro Energy's m/cap = £233m Net debt $46.8m It's African 2P = 35.8 mmboe. Production = 7,000 bopd. Their quarterly dividend is $3m ($12m/yr $70/b oil) Also " Panoro intends to pay out a USD 20 million core dividend in 2023 on a quarterly basis in cash weighted towards H2 and subject to average oil price realisation remaining above USD 80 per barrel" "If they too were to introduce a similar sized $12m dividend in the next year - 18 months it would be a yield of over 20% at these levels or 4.3% if the share price equalled 100p and a m/cap of £220m which would still be lower than Panoro" |
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