Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[kevjones2] 16/2/2024 17:21

Nice to see the share price rise AFTER the RNS. The Newlands deserve to take a bit of profit

[mount teide] 16/2/2024 15:35

Major Shareholders - The Newlands trim around 300k(£110k) worth of their 6.7m position.

[roks] 16/2/2024 10:31

Hopefully this will break out above 40p line soon.

[cf456] 15/2/2024 11:49

“Appears that #AET will have the widely anticipated ≈450k bbl lifting on/around 24th February (i.e. 9 days).

Crude Oil Tanker Diamondway currently en route to FSO Palanca.”

[chessman2] 15/2/2024 09:12

There is a clear upward trend here which is very positive for holders and yet AET still has a low profile.

Long may this continue.

[mount teide] 14/2/2024 14:27

With Afentra scheduled to lift 450,000 bbls of crude during the next two weeks - encouraging to see Brent is above $83/bbl and on a rising trend.....this will generate circa $37.5m of relatively low cost revenue.....since, the $35/bbl management guided break even price was based on a materially lower level of production.

[cf456] 13/2/2024 10:42

"Thrilled to see #AET added (for the first time) to the MSCI Global Micro Cap Index.

Hopefully very good news for passive inflows into the stock!"

[onedayrodders] 12/2/2024 20:24

Afentra continues to be a classic gift "horse in the mouth" at these levels The cream always rises to the top eventuallyI've run out of cliches Feel free to join in

[mount teide] 08/2/2024 10:23

Angolan O&G Industry

The waterfall drop in infrastructure maintenance capex and production development investment since 2014, is the principle reason why the Nation's O&G industry has experienced a 35% decline in oil production following the collapse in oil prices in 2014.

After the announcement of a number of government incentives in 2021/2 to halt the decline in oil production, 2022 saw the first production increase in nearly a decade.

Between 2022 and 2023 Angola has since seen a significant increase in investment in the sector, rising from $5.6bn to $12.0bn.

Investments of $71bn are planned in the sector over the next 5 years in addition to investment in incremental production, according to ANPG, the National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency in charge of supervision, regulation and promotion of activities in Angola’s oil and gas sector.

Created in 2019, the ANPG has a clear strategy - to boost Angolan oil production by negotiating new agreements with the various stakeholders operating the country’s oil and gas blocks and develop exploration activities by organising tenders.

When considering the size of the reserves of most of the mature offshore Angolan fields, the dearth of production maintenance and development investment over the last decade and the highly material financial incentives being offered by the Government to maximise the recovery of oil from these fields, it is increasingly providing an excellent low risk, high upside, investment opportunity for small second phase O&G companies like Afentra.

As a consequence, I would expect the Afentra management to continue to focus on Angola as their key investment market for shareholders funds.

AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 06/2/2024 22:28

CJTK - thanks for your comments.....it's certainly good to be feeling so much better and having a considerably brighter short term prognosis.

'If you have the time, could you kindly send a copy of that Paul McDade interview to the government of South Sudan. Just in case :)' Lol

It would be a real feather in AK's cap were he to pull the deal off, as the $1.25bn headline price for that long reserve life 55,000 bopd production asset, would likely be reduced to near loose change on completion, after taking into account the accrued financial benefit from having an economic start date for the deal of 1/1/2022.

[mount teide] 06/2/2024 22:12

After the US oil industry added 1.6m bopd of production growth in 2023, to set a new record 13.3m bopd in Dec, the highly politicised US EIA confidently forecast in its Jan report that 2024 would see further strong production growth.

However, the IEA's rose tinted growth forecast for this year was so ridiculed by the shale oil industry, the IEA was forced to completely reverse its position in the Feb report, where it is now forecasting ZERO production growth for 2024.


U.S. Crude Oil Production To See Zero Growth This Year: EIA - Oilprice.com today

'U.S. crude oil production fell in January and isn’t expected to grow at all this year, the EIA said on Tuesday in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook. The Agency also lowered its U.S. oil demand forecast to 20.39 million barrels per day from its previous forecast of 20.45 million barrels per day.

The cold snap that hit parts of the United States in January took crude oil production offline, causing daily production to fall to just 12.6 million barrels per day—down from 13.3 million bpd, the EIA said. And while the EIA expects U.S. oil production to return in February to levels just under the record, it expects production to drop slightly for the remainder of the year.

According to the EIA, it will be February of 2025 before another record is reached. “We forecast production will return to almost 13.3 million b/d in February but then decrease slightly through the middle of 2024 and will not exceed the December 2023 record until February 2025,” the EIA said in its STEO.

If accurate, the lack of production growth in the United States could help OPEC tighten the market, supporting crude oil prices. The EIA sees a global oil supply deficit of 120,000 bpd this year.

The prediction falls between the IEA’s and OPEC’s forecasts. The IEA’s forecast suggests a supply and demand balance for most of 2024, and with the possibility at least of a supply surplus in the second half of the year. OPEC, on the other hand, sees healthy oil demand this year and a lingering supply deficit until next year.'

The EIA’s latest estimate of weekly field production of crude oil pegs the daily rate at 13 million bpd as of January 26, about 200,000 bpd under the all-time high of 13.3 million bpd. But production for the week prior, during the cold snap, was estimated to have dropped to 12.3 million bpd.'

[onedayrodders] 04/2/2024 06:23

I'm guessing Oil will spike after latest USA attacks which should lift Afentra too.Not normally long lasting these Oil price war spikes

[captain james t kirk] 02/2/2024 12:39

MT
Really pleased to hear that things continue to improve on the health front and accordingly, good to see you posting more frequently.
If you have the time, could you kindly send a copy of that Paul McDade interview to the government of South Sudan. Just in case :)

[mount teide] 02/2/2024 08:00

This S&P Global Commodity Insights Interview with CEO Paul McDade conducted in H2/2023 is well worth a read (or reread!) for those that may have missed it for some great insight into Afentra’s strategy, vision and outlook for growth.

Afentra CEO eyes 'conveyor belt of deals' as majors retreat from mature African basins.



'......Afentra's core missions include rapidly building a portfolio of producing assets and proven resources, building on a strong track record in Africa, and facilitating a responsible energy transition.

"This is a medium-term game, it's not one deal and that's it. It's about a conveyor belt of deals -- and we've got to be selective," McDade said. "We're looking at lots of things... We might miss some things, we might choose not to do them because the value is not right, but there will be plenty."

The company's "selling point" is merging technical and operating experience acquired over decades at Tullow and in the North Sea, and the ability "to navigate the above-ground and the ministries and the national companies and build relationships and leverage those," he said............Angola's government, he added, is "using Afentra as an example [that] you can be a small, medium-sized company and you're now very welcome." The West African country, which is struggling to reverse a sharp production decline in recent years due partly to underinvestment, accepts that it needs to be open to smaller companies and make its blocks commercially attractive, McDade said. "My view is that they are doing both."

According to estimates, some 15 billion barrels of Angola's reserves are still to be produced, while majors like ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies are shifting towards wildcat plays in Namibia and Guyana, and less carbon intensive projects.

Afentra is keen to rapidly build its portfolio, although McDade concedes it is starting from a modest base. "I'm impatient, I want to push on," he said. "People tell me you're only two years in and that's not a bad start, but we will grow." '

[onedayrodders] 01/2/2024 01:53

It's like watching poetry in motion when a superb company and board are putting all the pieces together in a 500 piece re-rating jigsaw ... and we are only on piece 25If u get my drift ;0)

[senn1] 30/1/2024 11:12

This company will be debt free in a few weeks then raking in the cash .

Even on a very conservative PE should be closer to £1 imho patience will reward here am sure.

And that's without another deal which am sure there looking at before year end.

[onedayrodders] 26/1/2024 07:55

Seems always a delayed reaction so expecting the same

[cashandcard] 26/1/2024 07:48

Given the numbers, what's holding this back - final deal confirmation? Cash

[saint in exile] 25/1/2024 17:23

Looks very promising chessman and still very much under the radar

[chessman2] 25/1/2024 17:11

Looks like 2024 will see AET moving up. I'm extremely positive here!

[croasdalelfc] 25/1/2024 09:05

Production chart extrapolated from M&P numbers:hTTps://x.com/croasdale01/status/1750438144506314876?s=61&t=K8cQEGwi4MkTYlqZi6cmKg

[croasdalelfc] 25/1/2024 09:04

hTTps:www.maureletprom.fr/en/documents/download/1542/activity-for-the-year-2023

[blueeyes13] 25/1/2024 08:33

Great info thanks Croasdalelfc

[croasdalelfc] 25/1/2024 06:59

M&P press release implies Q4 production net to a 30% AET stake was 6750 bopd . I've taken 50bopd off as M&P have an extra 5% of block 3/05a.Also 2P reserves at end year up by 4m barrels net to AET after production taken off. That's a huge add in one year.