Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 04/4/2024 12:58

ODR - since nothing in life is certain, I can't complain, particularly when i've already lived longer than 99.9% of humanity that has come before me!

Told my wife if it does return with a vengeance and takes me down - that I want my GP's comment on my headstone, in response to being asked if what I was concerned about could potentially be serious: He replied "Don't worry, i'm 99% certain its not cancer!"

Three weeks later on paying to see a consultant privately for a second opinion - the first thing he said after introducing himself was "Why is this fit healthy looking man sitting opposite me"....within two minutes of examining me he said: "You have late stage metastatic cancer" The private consultation was the best £200 I have ever spent!

Will send you a PM.

[onedayrodders] 04/4/2024 08:22

Mount Teide .. good to hear you are managing a difficult situation well and with such positivity.

I'm guessing there is a good chance at some point I may need an oncologist like you have so would you be willing to pass on his/her name ?

By private message if you prefer.

thanks in advance

ODR

[xxnjr] 04/4/2024 01:50

Mount Teide - Good to know you have a brilliant Oncology Consultant :)
Thanks for sharing. That will give hope to others.

"McDade" and "under promise and over deliver"
As someone fairly familiar with the machinations of Tullow over the years I hadn't expected to see the above words in the same sentence! He must have learned something as a result of his chastening experience/ejection from Chiswick!

Having said that, I was mildly surprised (slight twitch of one eyebrow) that Afentra have entered onshore Kwanza exploration. Hope he's not empire building again.

[matt3893] 04/4/2024 01:32

AET has a decent telegram group can be found by searching #aet telegram On twitter

[kevjones2] 03/4/2024 21:56

I'm quite happy to wait for the finalisation of the latest deal.

[mount teide] 03/4/2024 17:55

xxnjr - "not too bad!" lol!

That comment immediately reminds me of my brilliant Oncology Consultant - the king of understatement!

Probably because over 90% of the hundreds of patients he's had during the last 15 years are no longer above ground - and yet, he's still one of the most successful in the medical profession at keeping late stage Melanoma patients not just alive but, remarkably fit and healthy, for more than a few years.

I would have been in the ground before last Xmas but for him and the all or nothing, take no prisoners, seven times normal dosage immunotherapy treatment plan he devised for me last September, to manage an extremely aggressive type of the disease.

I said at the time "what are your greatest concerns with regard to the treatment plan you've devised for me " - He said, "that you will die from the side effects of the treatment rather than the disease, as over 50% of my single dosage patients end up in hospital being treated for very serious side effects!"

Six months later, with all the huge tumours now completely shrunk and back to my normal bodyweight some 2.5-3.0 stone heavier, if I didn't know I had this incurable disease, I wouldn't have the slightest idea I actually did, other than having to continue with the high dosage immunotherapy treatment once a month for the rest of my life.

The management of Afentra clearly trained at the same school of understatement, as they are building an excellent reputation here for underpromising and overdelivering - by setting reasonable growth expectations and knocking them out the park, courtesy of a well negotiated backdated deal, together with a little luck from a protracted completion date and an average $85 oil price for the period when all revenues from the assets accrue to AET.

AIMHO/DYOR

[xxnjr] 03/4/2024 01:00

Oh, that is not too bad! Quite good, even. Thank you very much for your response Mount Teide. You are one of the good guys :)

[mount teide] 02/4/2024 15:20

xxnjr - block 3/05 - at 23,500 bopd gross production, Afentra's current 18% shareholding would generate 3.5 lifts a year of 450,000 bbls - one every 15 weeks.

After closure of the Azule deal, Afentra's 30% shareholding would generate 5.7 lifts a year of 450,000 bbls - one every 9 weeks - and deliver $217m of annual revenue at an average of $85 Brent!

Post closure of the Azule deal, Afentra would have a market cap value LESS than HALF annual sales at $85 Brent.

[xxnjr] 02/4/2024 10:13

OK, but given (1) "The Company sold its first 2024 cargo of 450,000 bbls of crude oil in February 2024. The sales price inclusive of the Brent premium was $85/bbl, generating pre-tax sales2 of $38.2 million to Afentra."

and I assume (2) the effective oil price is the 5 day average, following Bill of Lading date

when might we anticipate the next offload?

[mount teide] 01/4/2024 10:37

Energy is the second best performing S&P 500 sector YTD/2024, with a total return of 12.7%, after returning 18.1% in 2023.

The S&P 500 Energy Index is overwhelmingly comprised of oil companies by sector weight.

Last 5 Energy Bull Markets - As measured by the S&P/TSX Energy Index

[mount teide] 30/3/2024 11:58

'Brent > 87 , WTI > 82 - Just before OPEC+ rolls over its production cuts into a new quarter (from April 1st, as already decided), global oil benchmarks are jumping.

OPEC+ is tightening the oil market at a time of historically high prices. This is not a precautionary move, but a greedy one' - Twitter - Javier Blas (Bloomberg)

For a man who is usually spot on with his facts, I could not let Javier's Twitter post go uncorrected!

'Historically high prices? Fact check - the average price of Brent between 2011 and 2014 was $135/bbl adjusted for inflation, peaking at $160/bbl in June 2011, and an all-time inflation adjusted peak of $198/bbl in 2008!

Today's prices would have to rise by 55% just to match what they averaged during a 4 year period over a decade ago when the global economy and US stock market was booming !'


Edit: Sounds like Javier has been instructed to follow his employer's Democratic Party election year public narrative in a concerted effort keep US road transport fuel prices as low as possible until after November 5th !

[cf456] 28/3/2024 08:50

Baron keen on AET

"Holding Afentra still screening as one of the highest free cash yields for 2024. Production outperforming expectations, oil prices strong.

The Azule transaction is set to close in due course, balance sheet grows and M&A optionality really steps up. Exciting times ahead in view.

#AET"

[onedayrodders] 22/3/2024 10:23

hi jeanesy .. look at the chart around November / Mid December ... it took a while to shake off 30p but the share price is now 40p just 3 months later

25% in 3 months in these AIM markets not to be sniffed at IMHO

[jeanesy] 22/3/2024 09:29

everytime this share rises to 40p it immediately falls back. Very disappointing . I thought it would be pushing on especially with the price of oil showing strength.

[mount teide] 19/3/2024 15:18

Infinity Investment - Oil Market Update - 19th March 2024

"Indian refiners are growing increasingly wary of Russian oil for fear of getting caught in sanctions' crosshairs, only Chinese buyers seem to be left to purchase large volumes of Russian oil.

China is already on track to import 379,000 bpd of Sokol this March, a record volume and over three times February's levels. Meanwhile, imports of ESPO are expected to be at 882,000 bpd this month, the highest since January 2023, according to Kpler.

Overall, China might be importing 1.7 Mn bpd of Russian crude. Yet, it remains unclear how much of these volumes will end up with actual buyers and how much will be discharged into bonded storage, amid reported hesitation from Chinese banks to be involved in the trade in light of the Western sanctions.

This comes as China is expected to have worked through some of its oil inventories after processing a record amount of crude at the start of the year as refiners ramped up
operations to meet holiday demand. The volume of oil processed in January and February was 118.76 Mn T, or 14.51 Mn bpd, an all-time high and 3 per cent more than the same period last year, government data released on Monday shows.

China's fuel demand jumped as people travelled for the Lunar New Year holiday that started mid-February. Trips in private vehicles soared, with expressway passenger volumes 54 per cent higher than 2019 levels, while airlines saw 19 per cent more people than the pre- pandemic peak, and apparent oil demand in January-February gained 6.1 per cent to 14.36 Mn bpd, according to Bloomberg.

With early 2024 Chinese economic data beating expectations, hopes remain high for at least a buoyant remainder of the year for Chinese oil demand, as the global manufacturing cycle keeps turning higher and some of the major importers are set to rebound from the second half of the year, if not earlier. This should at least set a floor to crude consumption.'

[onedayrodders] 18/3/2024 12:14

SP reminds me of trying to keep a beach ball under water

;o)

[mount teide] 18/3/2024 11:39

Afentra - Angola / Block 3/05 (3.1bn bbls OIP - 42% recovered to date)

Results of Production Development Initiatives initiated in mid 2020 to date, and the additional measures planned for 2024 and beyond:

'Water injection re-instatement has been ongoing since mid-2020 with injection re-established into all fields. The Operator intends to increase the water injection to a plateau rate of 160 Mbbl/d by 2025. Since recommencement overall injection has been below target, with the rate averaging circa 38 Mbbl/d for the first half of 2023 as difficulties have been encountered. During 2022 power supply and distribution emerged as a bottleneck to sustaining injection rather than pump capacity. In February 2023, a leak was found in a subsea water injection line. The Operator is working to resolve these issues with the injection line leak scheduled for repair during the second half of 2023.'....CPR/June 2023

Prior to the leak the highest monthly injection rate since re-instatement was 53.2 Mbbl/d in February 2023, and the highest daily injection rate 70 Mbbl/d in January 2023.

'Several projects across the eight fields to both sustain and grow production from an average rate achieved in H1 2023 of 18,000 bbls/d are being executed and planned. These include light well interventions (LWI), workovers on existing wells, restarting production from a well on the Impala fields and re-instating full waterfloods across the assets.' ......Afentra - Early H2/2023

Average annual gross production across the 3/05 Block since re-instatement of water injection in mid 2020 and further production development projects commencing in mid 2023:

3/05 Block - Average Annual Gross Production:
17,080 bbls - 2021
18,660 bbls - 2022
18,900 bbls - 2023
23,700 bbls - 2024 to date

In a recent company statement, the ongoing programme of 'LWI is expected to support current average production...of 23,700 bopd'......suggesting the potential for further material production upside as the ongoing expansion of water injection across the block continues, from an H1/2023 average of 38 Mbbl/d ( 23% of the potential target plateaux rate of 160 Mbbl/d).

Afentra considers these production development activities initiated to date as 'low cost and rapid capital return'......a huge understatement considering the 39% increase in annual gross average production they've collectively delivered across Block 3/05 since mid 2020.

'Afentra sees significant additional value creation potential in Block 3/05 with a portfolio of projects identified to potentially increase production. This will consist of, but not be limited to, the following:

* Integrating near term asset integrity revitalisation and infrastructure upgrades.

* Production optimisation and debottlenecking opportunities.

* Optimisation of the existing well stock including workovers, access to behind pipe oil pools and optimisation of artificial lift applications.

* Longer cycle brownfield development opportunities such as in-fill drilling and the tie-in of undeveloped discoveries. (Block 3/5's 8 fields have not had an infill well drilled on any of them for 19 years)

Further upside not included in ERCE’s resource case have been identified and are under review, including additional infill drilling at the Bufalo, Pacassa and Oombo Fields, alongside potential access to shallower reservoirs.'....latest Presentation.

Admission Doc/CPR - Proposed Acquisition of O&G interests in Angola - Sept 2023

[catsick] 18/3/2024 07:54

Good to see cnooc involved hopefully, I have had a very large holding in cnooc for past couple of years, they are involved in the deep water development projects in Brazil and Guyana as junior partners which are the biggest development projects anywhere in the world at the moment. I think involvement in Angola of large Chinese oil companies with deep pockets will be a plus for aet

[onedayrodders] 15/3/2024 10:12

jeanesy .. it's been the normal reaction here since September, but eventually the cream rises to the top as the chart is indicating.

[catsick] 15/3/2024 09:20

Need to see azule close and get the closing financials and then blue sky ...

[jeanesy] 14/3/2024 17:00

can't understand why shares here are not moving forward atmo despite the strength in the oil price.

[mount teide] 14/3/2024 14:47

Brent has averaged circa $85/bbl over the last 5 weeks, and $82.50 YTD.

Coincided perfectly with the material increase in production AET has delivered during the last 6 months.

This week, even the uber bear US EIA have increased their 2024 average Brent price forecast by $4/bbl to $87.

U.S. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2024