Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 15/11/2023 09:16

Expected Admission Date for new shares connected to the Angolan Acquisitions - Mid December.

[onedayrodders] 15/11/2023 08:48

Always a struggle to get through these 'round number' levels but looking good to start the journey to the 40's IMHO

[cf456] 13/11/2023 14:40

"The best is without doubt yet to come from Afentra and with more activity on the acquisition front I am happy to have a conservative Target Price of 100p on the shares."

[pnetol] 10/11/2023 13:53

Even more so with the directors buy

[tromso1] 10/11/2023 13:33

Thanks Mount Teide.

[mount teide] 10/11/2023 13:26

T1- Euroclear publishes a Stock on Loan Report early each month detailing the average volume of stock on loan during the preceding month.

[zengas] 10/11/2023 13:06

I think there a few r/pieces twittering over on LSE given the non stop attempts to talk it down. Huge vote of confidence this am.

[billy two cocks] 10/11/2023 12:48

I'm partial to a short or two (but certainly not here). Very alarming when the gap up occurs.

There will be some ringpieces twittering amongst that 3.58%.

[tromso1] 10/11/2023 12:37

Thanks Mount Teide. Short closing should certainly help boost the share price further in due course.

Where do you get the short position information from?

[cf456] 10/11/2023 09:49

Director buying RNS:

[someuwin] 10/11/2023 09:36

Cavendish

"Sonangol acquisition receives government approval Positive news from Afentra yesterday, which has received government approval for the Sonangol acquisition, offshore Angola. This should boost investor confidence that both this and the Azule Energy transaction on the same assets will complete before year-end. A successful conclusion to these two transactions, alongside the already completed INA acquisition, will deliver Afentra a material non-operated shallow water portfolio in an established and prolific hydrocarbon province containing significant production enhancement, development and exploration opportunities. The improved fiscal terms of the producing assets being acquired have also been approved by government and are the key driver behind a 45% increase in our price target to 54p/sh. These highly free cash-generative assets will provide a solid foundation for Afentra and an excellent springboard for its wider African growth ambitions."

...


"Our financial forecasts are summarised in Figure 6, below. We forecast 2023 revenue of US$20m assuming the Sonangol and Azule deals complete on 1 December. In 2024, the first full year including all deals, this jumps to US$113m at US$70/bbl Brent, rising further to US$171m in 2025 as planned investment delivers growth. Our EBITDA forecast rises from US$3.6m in 2023, to US$49m in 2024 and US$105m in 2025. At our 54p/sh risked NAV-based price target, Afentra would trade on undemanding EV/EBITDA multiples of 3.1x in 2024 and 1.4x in 2025."

[croasdalelfc] 09/11/2023 17:20

The headline contingent consideration for the Azule acquisition is a max $21m over 3 years ($7m a year) It is based on average Brent over $75 payable at $150k each $ over $75.2023 is likely around $1.35m vs $7m max average Brent $84 according to EIA2024 would be $1.5m at Brent $852025 would be $1.5m at Brent $85So that headline $21m is likely to end up below $5m .The Azule acquisition is the real bargain of the three as includes the above and Block 03/05A 16%

[cf456] 09/11/2023 15:45

Today's Tennyson 75p target note here:

[someuwin] 09/11/2023 15:37

...

New fiscals drive NAV & CF upgrades, despite marginally lower oil price: We have worked the new Block 3/05 fiscal terms into our CF forecasts and NAV (summarised in Figures 1, 3 & 6), as well as the recent downward move in the Brent forward curve for FY23-25 (since our last publication in Sept 23). The net result is a 31% & 24% uplift in Core NAV & Total NAV to 43p & 76p, respectively. In addition, our FY24-25e EBITDA moves up 9-16% to US$66-60m. With Afentra shares trading on a P/NAV of 0.4x and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 1.8-1.3x FY24-25, we continue to see significant scope for a re-rating at current levels – with less than full value attached to the existing assets, let alone the future potential of Afentra’s acquisition platform.

[someuwin] 09/11/2023 15:29

Tennyson:

GOVERNMENT APPROVAL LANDS

In a corporate update this morning, Afentra (AET) announced Government approval of the Sonangol acquisition clearing a key regulatory hurdle in the consolidation of its ownership in Block 3/05, offshore Angola. Alongside this news, the company reiterated that it expects to complete both the Sonangol and Azule Energy transactions by year-end and unveiled specific details around the improved fiscal terms on Block 3/05. We have adjusted our model to reflect the fiscal amendments, as well as the latest Brent forward curve, yielding a ~24% increase in our Total NAV and a ~12% upgrade in aggregate FY24-25e EBITDA (to US$125m, 0.9x EV). Noting increased visibility around deal completion and the marked uplift in asset value, we reiterate our BUY stance with a revised target price of 75p (vs. 60p).

[cf456] 09/11/2023 14:17

"#AET ERCE report on new Fiscal Terms (per RNS) is now uploaded on co. website. NPV10 of Afentra's share of Licence has increased by $40.4m to $254.9m! Current mkt cap is c.70% discount to that! Afentra PLC - Government Approval of Sonangol Acquisition"

[mount teide] 09/11/2023 08:51

Very pleasing news when considering the tremendous reinvestment potential of these huge assets, which until recently, have seen a complete dearth of workover and water injection investment since 2015, and no drilling since 2005.

Today's RNS should be the catalyst for the announcement of a further highly material acquisition in the region during the next three to six months.

[onedayrodders] 09/11/2023 08:20

No froth or hype from this company .. just getting on with the job

Very pleased

[palisz] 09/11/2023 08:13

Afentra is pleased to announce that it has received approval from the Government of Angola for the acquisition from Sonangol Pesquisa e Producao S.A. ('Sonangol') of a 14% non-operating interest in Block 3/05 and a 40% non-operating interest in Block 23, offshore Angola (the 'Sonangol Acquisition') pursuant to a sale and purchase agreement between Sonangol and Afentra's wholly-owned subsidiary, Afentra (Angola) Ltd, dated 20 April 2022, as amended and restated on 18 July 2023.

[onedayrodders] 07/11/2023 17:46

I doubt that ... we are not the sort of stock to attract those "Twitter boiler room" sort as we are not a disruptive blue sky technology stock that's about to 100 bag (and never does).

I think it's just the general terrible AIM sentiment where people are happy to monetize any gains, even if for a few % here and there.

Despite the sales I'd say the share price has held up well so bullish for me.

ODR

[eringael] 07/11/2023 15:35

Strange to see lots of sells today, hope it was not a mini ramp as seen quite a few posts on Twitter - people will do anything for 10%

[billy two cocks] 06/11/2023 19:03

Very encouraging.