Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 25/11/2022 16:08

I expect the EU ban on Russian crude exports next week and the EU energy price cap to more than offset any oil price weakness that may occur before and after Xmas.

Plus that strategy carries a trump card - with the best days of the US shale oil industry over, the Saudi's are once again the World's only swing producer, and in a very tight market.

The Saudi's have made it very clear with OPEC's recent production cut action, that if they have any say in the matter, the days of ultra cheap $50-70 crude(barely one third the inflation adjusted price of 10 years ago), are going to stay in the rear view mirror.

[excellance] 25/11/2022 11:26

I expect recession to be a major drag on oil prices after Xmas.

[x54v] 25/11/2022 11:11

Great value proposition.

[mount teide] 24/11/2022 13:03

Post the December EU ban on Russian oil, if Russia then uses its own fleet to ship its exports, they will have a shortfall of shipping capacity of circa 1.0m bopd.

I calculate, that it would only need the oil price to increase by $7.7/bbl for the Russians to make up the shortfall in lost revenue.

So, all the EU oil price cap and Russian export ban by sea will have achieved is to take another 1.0m bopd of capacity out of a very tight market, and push up their own oil import costs, through having to source the shortfall from the Middle East and SE Asia/China.

And then the second Asteroid hits in early Feb, with the EU ban on Russian refined oil products.

No wonder market traders are placing huge bets on $150 Brent for next spring!

[x54v] 24/11/2022 12:30

"Sonangol has divested partial stakes in some of its Angolan portfolio for $766 million with deals including the sale of a 20% non-operated interest in Block 3/05 for $80 million and contingent payments of up to $50 million, and a 40% interest in Block 23 for $500,000 to independent oil and gas company Afentra."

"However, these deals represent just the start of Angola’s M&A activity with a host of new agreements expected to be signed in the following months owing to both Sonangol’s divestment strategy and Angola’s high potential upstream market."

[bigbigdave] 24/11/2022 08:26

On the verge of a major breakout

[mount teide] 24/11/2022 08:25

First Buys coming in at the full 32p bid.

Top MM's: 31p v 32.6p

[mount teide] 24/11/2022 08:23

L2: 31p v 32p - with a MM actually on the BID above the BOT's !

[upwego] 24/11/2022 08:21

Seems to be moving on any buying pressure which is nice to see :)

[mount teide] 24/11/2022 08:18

As reliable as a Swiss watch in my experience!

MM's sole purpose in life is to make as much money as possible for their employer - because if they don't they know they will be replaced with someone who will.

[excellance] 23/11/2022 19:31

That's one theory anyway.

[mount teide] 23/11/2022 19:27

By having a small closing auction trade at the BID price, it ensures the first buy trade the following morning at the previous spread of 30.5p v 31.2p will appear as a price rise. This is to create the illusion of an immediate price increase, when in fact there would be no change to the situation from the previous closing bell.

MM's know PI's overwhelmingly buy equities when the price is rising, so routinely do this to help generate buying interest at the start of the following day.

No one ever got poor underestimating the greed and underhand activity of MM's!

[upwego] 23/11/2022 19:01

I hope so MT, thanks to Zen, who pointed it out to me :)

[excellance] 23/11/2022 18:30

I think 30.50 is just the "bid" offered by the mm, the spread was about 30.50/31.20 towards close, but loads of automated trades near and after close to mash things up a bit.

[mount teide] 23/11/2022 16:45

Closing auction manipulated down to 30.5p to facilitate a strong start tomorrow.

[x54v] 23/11/2022 16:22

Nice BBD. Best of luck with them.

[mount teide] 23/11/2022 16:13

L2: sole MM on 31p moved up literally seconds before they would have been taken out with that collective 250k machine gun hit on the OFFER that followed.

[devonlad] 23/11/2022 16:08

BBD - nice!

[mount teide] 23/11/2022 16:05

3.15 million shares traded today - always encouraging to see a rising share price backed by good transaction volume.

BBD - timing looks good if today's buying pressure is a reliable guide.

[bigbigdave] 23/11/2022 15:49

The 120k and 3 x 100k were mine x54v

[devonlad] 23/11/2022 15:45

Still a block seller but it is going to be pretty odd if the boss is presenting next week and the deal is not completed, fully expecting it to be next week to be honest.

[x54v] 23/11/2022 15:37

The strongest volume in a while with a number of chunky trades throughout the day: 200k, 120k and 3 x 100k.

News incoming perhaps.

[mount teide] 23/11/2022 15:10

L2: some heavy Auto trades hitting the OFFER around 30.5p is encouraging.

As is MM's moving up closer to the top of the BID.

[mount teide] 23/11/2022 11:57

Timing looks good upwego.

Plan to hold these for 3-5 years......the management are very conscious the Angolan acquisition has serious re-investment potential, since it's hardly been developed at all since 2014.

Would expect similar size deals to be announced fairly quickly following completion of this deal. Plus, the final payment for the Angolan deal is likely to have a very large downward adjustment to the headline price from the cash accrued to AET from the effective date of the deal.

[mount teide] 23/11/2022 11:48

Yes, MM's are acting like they don't want to be anywhere near the OFFER price - best MM currently is at 30.8p.

Someone has gone fishing by placing 210k on the BID at 28p - vainly hoping that train will reverse back into the station to pick him up.....good luck with that!