Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[billy two cocks] 11/8/2022 07:21

ashkv

Market cap over £50m now so you should be able to short this with most CFD providers.

If you are so sure of your opinion............

[everready1] 11/8/2022 07:16

Your deramping won't affect the price if that's your agenda to seek a cheaper entry!

[everready1] 11/8/2022 07:14

so it begs the question why are you here!!! Move on and find better value elsewhere lol if you can! You won't because you are trying to convince yourself of the investment case and want reassurance on here. Do you really think you know better then the company insider who bought 820K recently or Malcy who i am sure knows more than you lol!

[ashkv] 11/8/2022 06:29

How is AET going to extract this upside potential when they are not the "operator" of the assets?? Some magic wand??

[ashkv] 11/8/2022 06:28

From AET RNS -> "Core 2P reserves valuation of c.$185 million1 with significant upside potential"

Above from AET CPR Deck with Brent at $98 for 2022 - which is above where it is trading at present.

The above NPV10 is prior to taxes and Admin costs etc - whereas at 26p Share price Enterprise Value is US$128million - AET is richly priced at current compared to most other E&P firms on AIM...

Also the team from Tullow is unproven - and Tullow itself is not a great place to make your record... look where the share price is relative to where it was...

Laughable that the AET crew is trying to equate themselves to Andrew Austin...

Transaction hasn't even closed and the valuation of AET with a less developed country asset is only 25-30% below management NPV10

Please check out Savannah Energy, TXP, Serica Energy, IOG, GKP, Energean, HBR, ENQ etc etc for far more compelling investments with far less risk and more assured upside...

[ashkv] 11/8/2022 06:15

Energy Voice article - even AET management conveying approval unlikely until late 2022

The second is for ministerial approval. Angola is due to hold presidential elections on August 24. Afentra expects political approval for the deal may come “realistically” in the fourth quarter, with McDade expressing the hope this would come sooner rather than later.

[billy two cocks] 10/8/2022 22:20

Massive one.

[petersmith6] 10/8/2022 20:53

What a pleasant surprise.. from 0.00 to 25..

[kevjones2] 10/8/2022 20:13

Thank you, everready1. Hope you got in early here but not too early!

P.S.

Tazerface10 Aug '22 - 19:29 - 261 of 261 (Filtered)

[everready1] 10/8/2022 19:10

sorry that post was for kev but appreciate your post too!

[everready1] 10/8/2022 19:09

brilliant post and reposte!

[everready1] 10/8/2022 19:08

brilliant post and reposte!

[sea7] 10/8/2022 19:04

If we complete in early October, we would need about $60mn of debt,” McDade explained.

“When we started, we said we wanted a material company. This is the first step of the journey. There’s a pipeline of opportunities out there – and we’re screening some as we speak,” McDade said.

[smackeraim] 10/8/2022 17:14

Doesn't seem there's much you like. Try getting some fresh air bud

[ashkv] 10/8/2022 17:08

Sorry if I am over the top - but detest his sort who don't disclose payments etc from the firms they cover - and it apparent that certain firms always getting positive coverage...

[ashkv] 10/8/2022 17:05

74tom - There was an error in that I added the equity cash back whereas I should have subtracted the same prior - I get a revised (And now accurate) Enterprise Value of $128 million at share price of 26p - for an EV / Barrel of $27,247 at 4700 bpd to AET
In your calcs you have not accounted for the cash equity outlay whereas I erroneously added the same to EV rather than subtracting from Cash

74tom calcs -
Debt financing = $66.5m / £54.3m

Cash at 31/12 = $37.7m / £30.8m

£56.6m + £54.3m - £30.8m = £80.1m

Nowhere near $165m!

ashkv Enterprise Value Calcs - page 9 of presentation in today's RNS ->

hxxps://afentraplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Angolan-Acquisitions-Resumption-of-Trading.pdf

Debt per page 9 -> Transactions will be financed through cash on balance sheet
and up to $75 million1 committed debt facility with Trafigura

In addition, a working capital facility of up to $30 million will
be available to finance asset funding requirements between
crude offtakes

While the specific figure for the deal is US$62.1 million - I have blended the above two debt facilities - assuming some draw on the working capital facility for $75 million


Also Cash is not YE 2021 Cash but the same minus the $20.7 million put up as equity to pay for the Angolan acquisition (from the cash on AET balance sheet)

Therefore ones has mas market cap at 26p = GBP 57.23 million
In USD terms at GBPUSD 1.225 this equates to a dollar market cap of US$70,087,046

Enterprise Value = Market Cap + Debt - Cash
In USD terms Enterprise Value =
Market Cap ($70.09 million) + Debt ($75 million) - Cash (YE 2021 Cash - Amount paid out as equity for acquisition)($37.7 million - $20.7 million = $17 million)
= $128 million

[kevjones2] 10/8/2022 16:16

Congrats to older holders who may see some return. Well done to those of us that got in early last year. My intention was to sell immediately on re-listing but when the second deal was made it confirmed these guys are serious. McDade's buy this afternoon is the icing on the cake. I'm going to hold.

[wahlberg] 10/8/2022 16:05

I think from the presentation $20m of existing cash balance was used for the deal

[smackeraim] 10/8/2022 16:01

"At first blush my initial target price is pitched at 40p but once I get a further chance to assess the company in detail I may tinker with that on the upside. "Malcy