Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 18/12/2022 11:18

Angolan Deals - As every day passes the net purchase price gets cheaper and cheaper !

The 4% working interest Block 3/05 acquisition has an effective deal date of 30th September 2021, while the 20% working interest acquisition in the same block has a 20th April 2022 effective date.

The Terms of the Deals state Afentra will receive the accrued barrels from the effective date of each deal for their working interest(percentage shareholding) of production, through to an estimated completion date of 31 Jan 2023.

Estimated Afentra barrels accrued through to completion date:
4% Deal - 387,000 bbls (Brent Averaged $95/bbl)
20% Deal - 1,150,000 bbls (Brent Averaged $101/bbl)

Total - 1,537,000 bbls (overall average Brent price of $99/bb)

FCF is $35m/yr at $75 Brent and $20/bbl OPEX.

Operating cash flow(pre Capex) generated from the effective date of the two acquisitions through to the end of Jan 2023 would be circa $121m.

The 4% acquisition - to end Jan 2023, should have generated operating cash flow(pre Capex) from the effective date of circa $29m against a headline price of $12m(excluding contingencies)!

The 20% acquisition - to end Jan 2023, should have generated operating cash flow(pre Capex) from the effective date of circa $92m, against a headline price of $80.5m(excluding contingencies).

Inclusive of License extension($10m) plus Transaction/Working Capital/Interest costs of $6.7m, the total headline price (excluding contingencies) is $109.2m.

In the Aug 2022 presentation it was to be funded by(assuming a 1st October completion):

$20.7m - Equity
$62.1m - Debt
$26.4m - Asset C/F

I estimate by the end of Jan 2023, the Asset C/F from the effective date will have increased to around $46.m

What this means is that the equity portion, which was to be funded from cash on balance sheet, would not be required, or the debt element could be reduced to circa $42-43m.

AIMHO/DYOR

[dr rosso] 14/12/2022 11:50

Yep, defo next year now hearing today's news from Afentra. And that means nothing doing also for Sirius regarding its own Angola blocks + AR, Accounts, AD and acquisitions elsewhere. Might as well switch off and come back in mid-Jan, by which time AET may well have sealed their smaller 4% deal with INA on their 03 Block.

The 9 onshore deals took 10 months and 1 week from SPA to completion. End of the year sees AET and Sirius-Somoil at just over 8 months, so what are being perceived as delays are nothing of the sort really. For Blocks 03, 18, 31, a PSA licence issue may be of some contention with both Afentra and S-S facing some reticence from ANPG in extending to 2040. The Companies' pov is understandable given the investment they are putting in.

Somoil prob in a better negotiating position being an indigenous outfit to which the Govt has already trusted onshore blocks. AET going solo for its 20% Sonangol divest could find the going a bit tougher. With prominent backing, they'll get there in the end.

On to Q1 it is then, celebration on hold, sausage and mash for xmas dinner.

[jungmana] 14/12/2022 09:36

"Sonangol has divested partial stakes in some of its Angolan portfolio for $766 million with deals including the sale of a 20% non-operated interest in Block 3/05 for $80 million and contingent payments of up to $50 million, and a 40% interest in Block 23 for $500,000 to independent oil and gas company Afentra.""However, these deals represent just the start of Angola’s M&A activity with a host of new agreements expected to be signed in the following months owing to both Sonangol’s divestment strategy and Angola’s high potential upstream market."

[excellance] 14/12/2022 09:16

They want their signing fee.

[eringael] 14/12/2022 09:13

I sense he knows nothing about the stock and thought me might have a quick short

[gotabsirius] 14/12/2022 08:22

They wouldn't be inviting them to oil and gas conferences if that were the case....you best sell up if that's your thoughts!

[2prsimo] 14/12/2022 07:55

Expect another extension next March - these Angolans don't want to hand over the assets.

[upwego] 14/12/2022 07:44

Sounds good to me!

Not long to wait at least they have given us a solid update and provided shareholders a good explained rns and fully update us..

I like that

[bigbigdave] 14/12/2022 07:17

We expect governmental approval of the INA Acquisition shortly which will allow us to complete this acquisition, marking our entry into Angola in early 2023 and the inception of our partnership with Sonangol in Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A with whom we intend to work closely with to optimise production and to extend the life of this quality, long-life asset. We are pleased that significant progress has been made on the award of the license extension and look forward to this being completed so that we can proceed with the Sonangol Acquisition in the near future.

[dr rosso] 13/12/2022 14:31

Who controls Afentra?

Meridian Capital, a major Kazakh investment and holding company with interests in oil and gas, banks, real estate, mining, aviation, transportation, and other areas.
Meridian, led by AA and YF, used a large portion of Kazkommertsbank̵7;s deposits to fund project after project. This enabled them to grow quickly, and at little risk to themselves.

The initial co-founders of Meridian information are technocrat and head of the KazMunaiGas oil and gas company Sauat Mynbayev and his six co-owners Askar Alshinbayev, Yevgeniy Feld, Nurzhan Subkhanberdin, Nina Zhussupova, Azat Abishev and Ian Connor.

Meridian group’s pyramid is registered in an offshore zone, Cayman Islands.

The funds “in some cases” form the top of a chain of holding companies that lead to the actual businesses. The company has operated and often sold for profit everything from oil and gas companies to glitzy malls to second-tier airports to vast transportation companies. The company’s shareholders have built a business empire.

Other major investments include PetroTal, TAG Oil, Victoria Oil and Gas, Lekoil, Rurelec and..... Afentra.

[dr rosso] 13/12/2022 13:45

Here are the ppl behind the scenes at Afentra

YF is Yevgeniy Feld
AA is Askar Alshinbayev

They own YF Finance Ltd and Meridian Capital, which manages Zion SPC

The Co-Founder and Investment Manager is Gavin Wilson, owner of 3m Afentra shares.




Following last week's switch out of Zion SPC, YF now owns 22m AET shares and AA now owns 26m AET shares


Afentra is about to blow .....

[dr rosso] 13/12/2022 11:38

Transfer, not a sell.

Zion SPC held 21.7m shares in a Caymans Fund called Light and Salt Capital Management Group Fund.

Follow the Zion trail and it takes you to the original backers of Afentra upon its t/o of Sterling Energy. Meridian Capital is at the centre, with a couple of prominent Kazak businessmen, YF and AA (Askar Alshinbayev). Same group is behind VOG, LEK, PTAL, TAG. Askar Alshinbayev is a Founding Partner of Meridian Capital Limited.

Where it gets interesting is that a co-founder of Meridian is Gavin Wilson. He is a NED at Afentra. In August he personally acquired £74k worth of Afentra shares, bought at market price. The 3 main Ds have also picked up a substantial number of AET shares. McDade and Wilson each own 3m. Cloke has 2m.

Rather than dumped, those 21.7m Zion shares have been shifted somewhere.

Bodes well, as it suggests Afentra's Angola deal closure is very close now.
Followed by Somoil-Sirius, we hope.


Another interesting snippet is that from 1992 to 2003, he worked with Canaccord Capital London, an investment banking company, as Head of Oil and Gas, responsible for sales and Corporate Brokering/Finance. No doubt he worked closely with JP & TH now at Sirius Petroleum conclusing their own Angola Blocks 18 and 31 deal with Somoil.

Some one in Hong Kong took up the 21.7m






Our Almaty, Kazakh investors, YF and AA rewarded with an extra 8m and 13m respectively. These 2 billionaires were original investors in Sterling Energy, into which AET rto'd in May 2021

[devonlad] 12/12/2022 18:49

Nice, just need the deal signed now!

[tromso1] 12/12/2022 18:42

Seller finally out. Time to move back up.

[upwego] 12/12/2022 18:05

Bought 19359 reported as a sell today..

Got a nice chunk of these now and hoping for the same with SAVE if you look at the news there today it`s pretty breath taking. Thanks To Zen for pointing this one out to me.

[rimau1] 12/12/2022 14:33

Feeling good from my SAVE investment so taken the plunge here. Being a SAVE LT investor means i have plenty of patience and fully understand “africa time” and deal deadline slippage!! Deal economics look good and every month the deal is delayed means more barrels of oil accrued to reduce he upfront payment. My only concern which i would appreciate views on is that this is not an working operator interest holding so less control over future field enhancements, views?

[htrocka2] 08/12/2022 19:23

(from the srsp thread)


It would be nice to get this confirmed with an rns.

[billy two cocks] 08/12/2022 14:31

Oil will rocket soon. War or no war.

[astralvision] 08/12/2022 12:33

That is true, they drop from a 'no brainer, stupendous returns' level to 'excellent'.And when oil rises again, as it surely will, it will go back to 'stupendous' levels.These deals are done knowing full well oil will rise and fall during the life of the wells. I think b/even is around $35/barrel, so there is ample room to make good profits here.

[excellance] 08/12/2022 12:15

As the oil price drops and interest rates rise, the numbers look less attractive.

[astralvision] 08/12/2022 12:10

Ian Cloke said 'nearing completion' a few days ago, see the Twitter link a few posts ago.

[mirmqjuxwf] 07/12/2022 13:38

all gone AWOL since the conference. Is there any update on the deal sign off? or is it expected to happen past the holiday season? deal or no deal?!

[mount teide] 05/12/2022 12:29

My pick would have been Scorpio Tankers (STNG) - currently up 5.9% in December - likely to be much higher over the next three months - as a result of the market dislocation activity of the EU ban on Oil and Refined Products imports from Russia starting today.........covered in detail on the STNG thread.

[bigbigdave] 05/12/2022 11:07

FWIW most popular choice in December UK Stockchallenge.
And I appear to be in the lead :o) Early days!

[mount teide] 05/12/2022 09:13

cf - this is the huge investment case attraction - the infill well potential of the assets is extraordinary, considering the size of the field and the fact its largely been starved of CAPEX since the 2014 oil price collapse.