Afc Energy Share Discussion Threads

[simon_64] 27/2/2012 14:30

I sold out at here at a massive loss, have to agree with the bears years off making any profit. Would buy back at 15p.

[solardave] 24/2/2012 19:16

Just posted this on ITM but also relevant here, could be an interesting week for Oil Hedge Stocks




Dave

[beeezzz] 24/2/2012 12:44

"It is likely orders will include up-front and milestone payments, however, revenue may not be recognisable until final installation and commissioning"

This revenue may not be recognised, however, I feel they will have to acknowledge payment in an RNS as this is price sensitive information.

[solardave] 24/2/2012 08:16

Ianous

Thanks for the clarification, the point here is product. Both ITM and CFC have a CE marked product. ITM got to that stage a year ago for their smaller products and recently for the big HFuel units. So after getting CE (you can't sell a product without it) it has still taken a year for the revenues to come through.

So, where is AFC's "product". I don't mean Alpha this and beta that, I mean a real final design, CE marked, data sheets, supply chain, prices and above all a market competitive offering.

It's many years off, infact it's at the stage that ITM was when Dr C. joined three years ago.

And by the way, I do hope that AFC make it, I'm a supporter of the whole sector.

GLA, DYOR

Dave

[sirmark] 24/2/2012 00:01

Might grab some hen they get to sub 20

[sirmark] 24/2/2012 00:00

Jackknife

Still keeping it real

Hows the short :)


Tempted to get some again but I'll wait as I see a realisation that things are taking much longer than anyone thought .... Except a few ;)

[neilsammonds] 23/2/2012 23:51

TomCo Energy [TOM]

TomCo aim to be producing 9,500 bopd from their oil shale acreage in Utah USA using an innovative environmentally friendly technology called EcoShale. The technology has been licensed from their partner Red Leaf Resources and next door neighbour. Red Leaf are about to sign a $320M JV with a Super Major rumoured to be Total which would be a huge vote of confidence for both Red Leaf and Tomco's business plan. Well worth putting on your monitor.

[solardave] 23/2/2012 23:47

Ianous

You may also be interested to note that ITM Power have also just announced there 1MW energy storage plant.



Dave

[ianous] 23/2/2012 20:55

Transforma, you know i gotta agree that £35k of income is pretty bad, but then its four times the amount of ITM from their last full year accounts which was just £8k.

love ya.

[new tech] 23/2/2012 20:19

Allenby Capital's current estimates for AFC (21/2/2012):

2012 Revenue estimate = £0.3 million to £1.2 million
2013 Revenue estimate = £0.5 million to £2.0 million

"Near-term revenue forecasts realigned and presented as a range. AFC is in talks with several current and prospective customers over a number of potential system sales. There is a level of uncertainty as to how many orders will result, and what the precise timing will be. This is further complicated by exactly when revenue will be recognised. It is likely orders will include up-front and milestone payments, however, revenue may not be recognisable until final installation and commissioning. To account for this, and after discussing the issue with the company, we have elected to present near-term revenue forecasts over a range. It is worth noting that revenue is still a relatively unimportant metric for AFC, and of more importance is the company's cash position and burn rate. For the cash flow we have assumed revenue comes in at the median of the forecast range and use a 50% gross margin.

We have left the top of the 2012 revenue forecast range unchanged at £1.2m, and have increased forecast administrative expenses for 2012 from £4.2m to £5.1m to reflect the increased costs associated with the transition to commercial operations. including the creation of a small manufacturing team The bulk of our previous 2013 revenue number of £5.01m was based upon multiple system sales of a basic 50kW system unit into Akzo Nobel. As the Akzo programme is evolving, so is the most cost effective system configuration and business model to suit both parties. There are various possibilities, one of which is that AFC deploys the ESCO (Energy Services Company) type model at an earlier stage. We have moderated 2013 revenue down into a range from £0.5m to 2.0m to reflect this uncertainty and at the same time have increased admin expenses to match the level forecast for 2012.

2011 pretax loss was £4.34m compared with £3.93m forecast, and cash burn was £3.30m compared with £3.08m forecast. The circa 10% difference was due to equity share based payments being slightly higher than forecast and a £191k write down on historic IP. Near-term forecast realignments have a negligible impact on our DCF target price, which is heavily back-end weighted. The increase in shares in issue due to the equity raise in May 2011 moves our target price from £2.20 to £2.08"

[transforma] 23/2/2012 19:06

Blimey those results are awful. Worse then I would have predicted. £35k of revenue really is quiet embarrassing. LoL

So, a fund raise, but at what price; they brought the price down to 40p the day before a 40p fundraise was announced; this time they wont have to try.

No product, no revenue; fundraise at 10p?

What say you Sir JakNife and Cuddly Old Ianous, my old mucker.

[new tech] 23/2/2012 16:48

Yes but they may not be able to recognise the upfront payments until actual installation which could be months afterwards. Allenby alluded to this. Its an accounting oddity meaning the actual revenues reported in the accounts may lag behind payments the company are actually receiving.

[beeezzz] 23/2/2012 15:56

It feels like the news that will be out over the next couple of weeks, months, should be good and the MM's are just getting ready by topping up, taking advantage of those S/L which have been left on from much higher share price

New Tech.....It depends they may get up front payments if AkzaNobel go ahead with an initial deployment in Germany, say 1MW, if I was running the company I certainly would.

[new tech] 23/2/2012 14:32

They will obviously need more cash but as the cash burn is low it would only be a small amount like last time and probably via a cost-effective placing with Linc also like last time.

Allenby commented on AFC's good cost control and low cash burn relative to other fuel cell companies spending three times as much per annum. To me that underlines the value shareholders are potentially getting with AFC.

[beeezzz] 23/2/2012 11:39

Yes I think the MM's are pricing in share issue for more funds, AIM is graveyard for start up companies, never given the time to or money to achieve there goals,

If the company was going for fund raising it would be silly leaving it to long that the share price is a few pence, not sure it will go that far, Linc may come in with cash injection they have plenty. Luckily, I'm still in profit so to worried yet, lost a lot of paper profit though.

[outfly] 23/2/2012 11:07

Taken from ADVFN Constant losers board.

Fallers for 8 days
EPIC Name Price Today Price Then Change Change %
AFC Afc Energy 25.25 32 -6.75 -21.09%

A fall of - 21.09% in only 8 day's. The only share to have fallen for 8 days in a row.

[outfly] 23/2/2012 10:52

Looks like this dog really is screwed, it only ever goes down. Only 1p off year low now, it will probably drop to this and below tomorrow.

[holism] 22/2/2012 20:51

Goodness, small shareholders always seem to miss the point. This is a long term play. It won't happen over night. It's important for the company to have solid institutional support during this crucial stage. Personally I think AFC should have remained private until the concept was proven commercially. However given where the company is with no news enhancing the balance sheet speculators will control the share price. That is life!