Apc Technology Share Discussion Threads

[simon templar qc] 16/1/2016 19:41

Correct its all there in the news release but the bears only want to talk about the past.

I see the distribution business beating forecasts this year and a nice generator of profits but the exciting part the company Cleantech could take off in a big way.

Have done my analysis and now happy to await the next news-flow.

It will only take another contract win now or a trading update on the date of the AGM for an upgrade to come.

I think we have seen the last of the big sellers now a few weak holders may still exit but my feeling is apart from some volatility in the short term due mainly to the global economy we should see APC beat the wider market.

[playful] 16/1/2016 19:19

Richard also told us…

“The distribution team is also well advanced in the roll-out of our connectivity and 'Internet of Things' product offering, with orders already secured.”

[simon templar qc] 16/1/2016 15:37

Thoughts for the weekend:

Distribution operations:

2014 A sales £12,456 Operating profit 533k

2015 A sales £12,658 Operating profit £696k

2016 E sales £12,984 Operating profit £971k

2017 E sales £13,633 Operating profit £1.094

2018 E sales £14,315 Operating profit £1.224

The distribution business has high fixed costs, therefore the impact on profits on downside and upside far more in percentage terms either way. The further the fall in sales the bigger the impact on less profits the higher the rise in sales the bigger the impact on profits.

At the end of November this is what the company said:

"Component Division: First quarter orders exceed GBP3.5m"

"Advanced Power Components continues to secure an impressive forward order book with first quarter orders ahead of forecast."

It doesn't take a mathematician to realise if sales continue to gather momentum from here that the distribution operating forecasts will be beaten by a reasonable margin.

The real growth in profits however, is set to come from Cleantech division which is expected to grow in far higher multiples the next few years.

[simon templar qc] 15/1/2016 11:39

So where is the overhang guys?

There is no overhang at all, the markets are turning red in the majority of shares and footsie down 1.3% APC is up 1.2% on a mere volume of 30 odd thousand!

The astute investor bought yesterday while others were selling, they kept their head while others were losing theirs!

I am not saying there may be no more volatility however its all about stock picking now concentrating on where the real growth is now to come from.

[playful] 15/1/2016 07:41

I see the smaller LED design and fit contracts easier to win and they soon add up and with contract wins a distinct possibility within the water and component business additional news within the AGM statement is highly likely.

[jailbird] 15/1/2016 07:11

It also probably depends whether they have something meaningful , like contract new to report or maybe reassure progress is continuing well.-Orherwise AGM will be a RNS stating 'resolution passed '

[simon templar qc] 14/1/2016 21:57

playful

Last year the company didn't come out with a trading statement on the date of the AGM however I did discuss this with the CEO.

You will appreciate he couldn't give me prior notice of the company intentions however I took the view the company does intend to be proactive so far as news-flow is concerned and the last two months this has been borne out.

There have been two broker notes the last three months which is further evidence of management focus on ensuring the market understands what is required.

I see APC as a multi bagger at some stage subject to the company performing as the brokers forecast.

The quicker sales rise the faster the rebound will come. What you tend to find is the smaller undervalued companies rebound far faster.

[playful] 14/1/2016 21:45

You would imagine Richard will be aiming to announce additional news within the AGM statement next month, which is of a similar interval period between the previous updates, remember they are not interested in big risky contracts just the contracts that can be delivered profitably without any doubts and include the addition of in-house design adding further value.

[simon templar qc] 14/1/2016 19:18

Mike u have email.

[100michael] 14/1/2016 18:47

Simon
I have sent you a private message

[owenski] 14/1/2016 18:41

Cheers Simon

[simon templar qc] 14/1/2016 18:23

Mike,

Either leave an email or leave me your email on ADVFN private message and I will send u a copy.

owenski,

Have replied by email.

[playful] 14/1/2016 17:48

“The sum of the parts is worth much more than the whole”

I absolutely agree..

The IoT opportunity is potentially huge in my opinion and if you refer back to my previous post #1225 (old thread) you can see how closely it corresponds to our offering:

[owenski] 14/1/2016 17:47

Hi Simon, left you a private message on this site. Cheers

[rinson] 14/1/2016 17:38

Simon - Thanks for the offer of the Broker note but I now have it. I got it from my house stockbroker who received it direct from Cantor last week. Stupidly I did not think to ask before but am now on their mailing list. I would suggest this may be away for other posters to obtain it.
At the risk of being called naive I now better understand your optimism and not based solely on the note. Another interesting conversation with my broker about REDt whom I also invest in. It seams this whole Cleantech sector is now on the watch list of many II's but for now the low MC is the only reason they are holding back. IMHO this is the reason for the recent pressure on the share price with some of the larger institutions cleaning their books. As I have posted before I think the leg up towards 15p will be slow because of it but when we do make it the MC will start to become more interesting for some funds. As to the risk of failure pretty low in my opinion. And if push comes to shove the sum of the parts is worth much more than the whole especially distribution. That sector is currently on fire rising against the general market trend this week. Military technology, IoT definitely the arena to be in for the next decade. World temperatures rising, H & S gone mad, how long before every home must have a water quality sensor fitted to their supply. Deregulation of the water industry, buy from who you like in 2017, the competition will be immense. APC are right there and as the November RNS business is increasing.

[100michael] 14/1/2016 17:29

Thanks for the info and your thoughts Simon. Can I ask to see the brokers note too please?

[simon templar qc] 14/1/2016 16:45

rinson,

One has to appreciate management cannot spend all day speaking with shareholders otherwise the company would go down the pan.

I gave the CEO forewarning I was about to invest in the company if I am confident about a company I have quite a large circle of high worth friends who would probably invest as well.

There has to be a balance in talking to investors and sometimes its hard to get that balance right.

The same with me. I have less time for posters who are just trying to wind me up and knock the company shares. If people are reasonable with me I am reasonable with them.

You seem a reasonable guy rinson if you want a copy of the brokers report leave an email link at a set time later this evening and I will oblige.

[rinson] 14/1/2016 14:20

Thanks Simon. I've heard from several sources that he is a good guy but a little dismayed he did not return Elias' call as webpax stated.

[simon templar qc] 14/1/2016 13:54

rinson,

Have spoken with the CEO Richard Hodgson, and now have a good understanding of the company and how they generate their revenue.

I am reassured the company is going the right way.

The share price had fallen too far this morning I expected a bounce back from the early fall, mind you markets are in a bad way and I expect that to continue.

Its all about stock picking now and looking for growth.

By the way there is no pension deficit to worry about in this company that is a further reassurance.

[webpax] 14/1/2016 13:02

rinson - there was a guy called Elias Jones on Stockopedia who did several interviews with MR and as you say he was very welcoming of PI's. Unfortunately Elias has told me he has written to the new CEO three times and has not had a single response.

Poor show really. Anyway I'm out for now, kemche's analysis is spot on. Too much debt here for my liking.

[rinson] 14/1/2016 09:20

Simon - I know that MR was always ready to talk with concerned PI's and I phoned him on occasion. Any suggestion who is the the best person to contact since his departure?

[kemche] 14/1/2016 06:15

Simon, Rather a dismissive attitude if I may say so.

I understand that you are a self confessed "professional" investor, and I but a mere amateur, nevertheless I think I should be allowed to present the other side of the argument surely? If my analysis is flawed, and no doubt it is, then all you have to do is to present an equally robust rebuttal. To merely claim that "It should give investors here some reassurance that I am invested here" is somewhat haughty and condescending. Especially if the crux of your argument rests on the say so of the house broker. As I have said before, I have found them to be wrong before - quite often in fact. But surely you as a "professional" investor know that already.

And I shall continue to post wherever I choose to, if you deem it to be acceptable of course!

And Simon, you will find that hubris is invariably followed by nemesis - but you should know that being an eminent QC.

[simon templar qc] 13/1/2016 22:58

jailbird,

Well if you and kenche aren't interested there is no point in posting here anymore, just look for other investments!

I am content to hold and continue to invest.

You pays your money and takes your choice I have made mine.

edit:

I happen to think any major seller gone now. Any snippet of good news now will likely ensure an upgrade the share price could move sharply at any time.

[playful] 13/1/2016 22:49

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