Apc Technology Share Discussion Threads

[simon templar qc] 09/1/2016 22:23

At least we are in agreement about some things.

Too early to take a position in both oilers and miners however there will be blood on the carpet before they come back.

I think posters will be surprised here in due course I happen to think the tide has turned now on this company and the kitchen sinking coupled with a new focus and cost savings will set this company on a new course going forward we will see.

[jailbird] 09/1/2016 20:00

I am looking at oilers and miners. We are in a very negative cycle here.
But in no rush here.

We need a low commodity environment to rid of glut, and drive economic growth.

When this commodity downtrend turns, I want to be invested in it. I think there will be serious games to be made from it. But I can see $25 oil first.

And like you said , it is finding the ones who will survive this...expecting alot of M&A activity in this sector too.

[simon templar qc] 09/1/2016 19:26

I am still awaiting your list of growth stocks?

This is my take of the current world environment and various stock situations:

-Miners and oil related stocks going nowhere albeit its going to affect a lot of companies and many companies will go bust.

-With an ageing population in the UK retailers will struggle the ball game changed.

-Banks and financial stocks are in for a hard time, due to past mistakes in fact if interest rates go up buy to let could see further losses as buy to let landlords go bust. Too much lending out there.

-As world growth slows its already hitting other distributors look at ECM and PFL. APC's products are far more protected in fact the distribution business being on a growing trend.

-Manufacturers are already struggling if interest rates go up in UK they will struggle further.

STOCK PICKING THE NAME OF THE GAME NOW I AM AWAITING A NUMBER OF STOCKS SET TO GROW THE NEXT FEW YEARS?

[jailbird] 09/1/2016 18:55

Here you go..a difference of an opinion

Funny thing, APC are now supposed to be in a better position, after kitchen sink results. Yet the target is the same...are they clueless or experts?

Latest broker views
Date Broker New target Recomm.
6 Jan Cantor... 20.00 Buy
30 Nov Cantor... 20.00 Buy
5 Nov Cantor... 20.00 Buy
24 Aug Cantor... 20.00 Buy
18 Aug Cantor... 20.00 Buy
30 Jul Cantor... 36.00 Buy
28 May Cantor... 36.00 Buy
23 Mar Northland... 35.00 Buy
17 Feb Northland... 35.00 Buy
30 Jan Northland... 35.00 Buy

[simon templar qc] 09/1/2016 16:16

jailbird,

I haven't got any rose tinted glasses on but I have got the brokers note, have you?

Most of what the company said was outlined in the brokers note in November no surprises to me.

The past is now out of the way and the company kitchen sinked all the bad news.

markets in a bad way at the moment number of sectors slump will continue.

I know of no other companies at the moment which will see the rate of growth that this company will see.

If you have any could you please outline them?

Thanks.

[rinson] 09/1/2016 12:49

Pug:

Thanks for your reply.

I knew that he had gone but was only emphasising that both had the confidence to buy at that time. The number of shares was 176468 so not much of an overhang if indeed he is selling.

[pugugly] 09/1/2016 12:27

rinson: Again a balanced view but you appear to have missed one point -

Shortis is no longer with the group in any capacity -

" 23 November 2015 Management Change

APC announces that Andrew Shortis has agreed to step down from the Board with immediate effect.

Richard Hodgson, Chief Executive of APC Technology Group, will take over Andrew's day-to-day responsibilities and Andrew will have no further involvement in the day-to-day management of the Group or its businesses.

The Board would like to thank Andrew for his hard work and commitment over the past year and wish him all the best in his new endeavours."

It might appear that he was pushed - and might it have had something to do with the problems? - unfotunately we do no know and can only speculate - possibly unfarily - Could equally as well be a personality clash - Always disruptive.

Could it be that his previous holding is part of the apparent overhang ?

[rinson] 09/1/2016 12:14

Jailbird: A very fair salutary post.

I guess I too, as a long term holder and still buying on dips, could be accused of wearing rose tinted glasses but I recognise that events such as IFL occur only too frequently and so agree that your post offers a truly balanced opinion.

As you say in your first para, things can improve for many good reasons and especially in the distribution division which has announced an excellent start to the year. Heavily involved in the higher end of the market and recently the IoT which is primed for monumental growth over the next 5 years they should continue to thrive. Water has new ongoing contracts and Clean Energy appears now to be doing well after introducing more controls and curbing the over zealous pricing of the past.

I appreciate your point about brokers especially when there are more than one involved. Let's not forget though that their forecasts are derived from information gleaned from the Company concerned. If the Company get it wrong so does the broker.
Would Cantor really want to sully their reputation on an AIM minnow? I suspect not, but why did they want to take the risk of APC in the first place? The answer can only be that they wanted to boost their Clean Tech offering and liked the story because so far there has been more risk than reward.

Richard Hodgson and Andrew Shortis came onboard I think in 2014 around the time of the acquisition of Green compliance. Not sure exactly of the timing but I think both participated in the fund raising around the time of the last AGM, buying shares at 22p I think. I am sure that they had been around long enough to have believed that APC would meet their annual targets. The rest of course is history but what now?

I wonder if any are in a position to buy shares now that they are out of the close period. Certainly would give a boost to the share price more than any words contained in the report could.

[jailbird] 09/1/2016 05:36

With Kemche on this too.

Have to cautious and not get carried away. Revenues are very good , but it looks like these were won at a cost .. Poorer margins... and these are won in the hope to be potentially recurring revenues , these margins can improve .
This year will be better , because it cannot be worse.
If they can build on the good start this year, take advantage of the climate targets that needed to be met , then these will do well .
But we have be mindful that they have enough cash without needing more funds through dilution .
They are written off last year's losses ( but I do not like intangibles either )

3D and Simon Templar , get those rose tinted glasses off as holders.. Losing balanced viewpoint because of this.

Listen to these guys. They are talking ftom balance sheet analyses , not someone else 's opinion .

Brokers notes .. Selling to their clients .. Do not make me laugh ... You are showing naivety in investing if you believe these notes.
One brokers opinion .
Have you not wondered why some stocks have say 5 broker recommendations and 2 saying sell , one saying buy and one saying hold.

20p is a medium target price . Do not get me wrong , I love to see 20p tomorrow :-)

Have a look at IFL.. Brokers targets from 15-30p ... Even month before being Delisted , sold for nothing.

[kemche] 08/1/2016 17:24

jeffian, I concur.

[jeffian] 08/1/2016 17:19

rinson,

Your comments to me in #1201 are absolutely correct in that I have only looked at the last few accounts and RNS's and haven't researched the history in detail. I would have left it at that but intrigued that you raise the issue of DIA (which I sold close to the peak of around £13) as it was at the back of my mind when I posted but didn't mention as I assumed it was 'off topic'. However, as I posted extensively on the DIA thread at the time, it was the high cashburn which rang the alarm bells and why a supposedly 'profitable' company moved from net cash of +£15m to net debt of -£15m in a couple of years. Analysis showed that in that case it was year after year of 'exceptionals' and the capitalisation of supposed 'R&D', most of which should have been expensed. It was nothing to do with the oil price or falling orders. We'll see here but it's difficult to switch cashburn off like a tap, so even if they're turning it round, they don't have much leeway with what's left in the kitty.

As for broker's notes............

[pugugly] 08/1/2016 16:19

rinson: re DIA was not just Oil/Gas cutback in capital expenditure - Most unfortunately there was an apparent lack of succession planning - the CEO who had been excellent was terminally ill and there appeared to be a significant lack of financial/marketing/sales control - The last 3 points very applicable here with APC in recent past.

Lots of apparent similarities at the moment(IMO) both coys seemed to lose management controls, both appear to have over expanded and both had too many product lines, both have new management and the jury is still out on both.

PS> I knew DIA well - it was one of my better sells back in 2014.

[simon_64] 08/1/2016 16:05

rinson

I am not obsessed with a placing at all and after todays results I have no interest in buying this share at all, but I believe I owe you the courtesy of replying, so before your mind goes into overdrive, I have never shorted a share in my life as I believe shorting is immoral.

Rest assured I will not be posting on this thread again, best of luck for your investment I really hope it comes good for you.

Regards.

[kemche] 08/1/2016 16:01

I suspect, and mind you it's only a suspicion,that I could pick them up cheaper. But as I say it's only a suspicion.

[simon templar qc] 08/1/2016 15:59

lol

Yes and if u had have been on the ball u could have picked up some stock at just under 10 pence today.

Not that the odd penny either way makes all that difference at this price should the share price double.

[rinson] 08/1/2016 15:15

I guess you cannot please all of the people all of the time but those of you who are knocking the future prospects and using the errors of 2015 as examples need to either sell up and move on or give the company a chance to follow through.

Jeffian, you quite rightly talk about cash burn being high in both half of the year.
I suspect that you do not know why! Reasons were clearly given at the time of the placings in that year and so it was expected. However you are right to have a watching brief before investing. I think it would also be useful for you to read all RNS' in previous years to understand the Company better.

Simon-64, you say you have no position here so how come you are obsessed with a placing. I have been invested here for many years, made money, lost money. If a placing happens it will be for a very good reason and not for funding expansion or to survive. And before someone points this out to me, I know the placing money last year was used to fund expansion overseas and it went haywire.

Easy to say but the falling oil price has hit many companies and economies hard. Another good company, Dialight had a major profit warning this year with their LED orders falling off a cliff. APC's are improving as the recent news flow. Relatively small but lots of ongoing business in all parts of the Company ensuring 2016 should be a very good year.

[kemche] 08/1/2016 14:44

"I appreciate the house broker gets a fee from the company but they also have a duty to their own private clients and as such not attempt to mislead the investment community."

With the greatest respect Simon, in all the years that I have been doing this, I have yet to see brokers offer "a duty of care" for private clients let alone the wider "investment community". I do however have innumerable examples of the complete and utter opposite. But that's just me I suppose.

I am going to suggest an unscientific poll here and suggest that if readers have had a similar experience to myself then they vote for this post whereas if they have experienced what you have then they can vote for yours. Just a silly exercise I know but let's see.

[simon templar qc] 08/1/2016 14:30

kenche I don't intend to be rude all I am saying is if u had the benefit of the research note you would be better able to evaluate the prospects.

I appreciate the house broker gets a fee from the company but they also have a duty to their own private clients and as such not attempt to mislead the investment community.

Had the brokers been overly concerned over the figures they would have cut their price target.

The price target of 100% uplift is simply encouraging their own private clients to buy in.

Do they want to upset all their own clients!

I think not.

I reckon the company will gave more information on trading at or about the AGM which is the last week in February.

[kemche] 08/1/2016 14:19

Please let me know which of my comments you found to be particularly foolish and I will rectify immediately.

I will concede though that I am not a "serious" investor and am known to make comments without doing proper research and fail to obtain broker research.

I am simply here to learn. Any advice gratefully received.

[simon templar qc] 08/1/2016 14:01

Brokers have a duty to their clients, if they were overly concerned they would have reduced their price target!

I can also see a poster who foolishly makes comments without doing proper research and fails to obtain brokers research.

You are clearly not a serious investor!

[kemche] 08/1/2016 13:49

Broker telling clients to buy you say???? What a shocker! I am speechless.

"Do the house brokers want egg on their face and disappoint their clients?"

Do you seriously not understand the irony of that question?

Client pays me a fat retainer and I write a sell note?

I can see I am dealing with a wise investor here.

[simon templar qc] 08/1/2016 13:45

kenche the share price has been all over the place the current share price tells u nothing.

What the brokers are telling their clients is the share price is a buy and its set to double this year.

Do the house brokers want egg on their face and disappoint their clients?

We can all churn over the past the future is more important!