Facilities By Adf Share Discussion Threads

[johndoe23] 10/6/2022 15:52

Few limit orders hit at 60p there I reckon

[gswredland] 10/6/2022 13:27

This has hit over 80p and nothing has changed given recent statements from ADF
I am hoping to top up. Just a crazy market at the moment..

[eezymunny] 10/6/2022 12:46

Headed down down down to fair IMO until the outlook is clearer. The possibility of having a fleet of vehicles on long leases and insufficient customer demand to utilize them is very very scary. The streamers have been in spend spend spend mode for a few years trying to build their subscriber bases. Any cutback in production could be devastating for a company like this IMO (AR says leases for "hire fleet up to 7 years").

[yasx] 10/6/2022 12:32

The downward drift continues - heading to the IPO price.

[yasx] 08/6/2022 14:18

Perhaps we could do with an announcement soon of an acquisition as they previously indicated this was on their radar...

It needs something to ignite some interest here.

[rivaldo] 07/6/2022 11:58

Worth reiterating Cenkos' summary in their latest note - this was when ADF were at 69p.

At 64.5p the forward P/E is only 10.9:

"Valuation.

ADF currently trades on an FY23E Adj PE of 11.7x, we believe ADF should trade at the top end of the equipment hire peer group and at least in-line with streaming peer group given its superior EPS growth rates of 27% (CAGR FY-2 to FY2) and higher FY23E PAT margins of c12%. This results in the company having a PEG ratio approximately half that of equipment peers and streaming peers."

[aishah] 06/6/2022 18:42

Agreed, limit orders in. Markets get irrational at times!

[gswredland] 06/6/2022 16:02

Totally agree Adam.
Quite a few of my shares are coming out with great statements and little response!
patience here. I will add if we get to 60

[adamb1978] 06/6/2022 14:09

Following on from the above post, I think in these sort of conditions you want to look more at performance of the busienss and less on the share price.

If the business is executing well and growing then ultimately when the market gets into a more risk-on mode, the share price will re-rate and probably quite quickly. However at the moment, nothing is good enough for Mr Market so kind of just need to tune out and be patient

[simmsc] 06/6/2022 13:45

i think the issues are: current depressed market (especially towards small caps), not very well known company and lack of comparable companies, suffering from new issue effect (investors shying away from these/not been listed for long/so lack of history as a listed company), quite a few good companies can now be bought on a PE's of 10 or less 10 (this is rated a wee bit more expensive), and lack of quality investors in the top holdings (not many big "small cap" fund manager names in there, only Canaccord) could make investors wonder why not more of these are not on board.


I personally like this company (just giving you reasons as to why it may not be going up here).

[yasx] 06/6/2022 13:11

Very disappointing reaction to the results and outlook statement. Not sure what investors were hoping for, since the results (although known) were robust and the outlook statement was very optimistic indeed.

[rivaldo] 06/6/2022 07:23

Today's RNS notes the maiden post-IPO AGM will be on 29th June - hopefully including a trading update:



I also came across this article about the booming use of the UK in doubling for American locations:

[rivaldo] 30/5/2022 08:39

Great article hastings, thanks.

That was the aspect that immediately stood out for me too - ADF expect to "comfortably pass" 70 productions this year, against 39 last year. Which perhaps implies that this year's forecasts look nicely conservative.

Good to also hear that there's plenty of potential activity in terms of acquisitions in a fragmented sector.

Last week's results looked just fine to me, and the outlook especially so given the "almost fully booked" order book for this year:

"Outlook

· Market dynamics continue to be strong with increasing demand for film and high-end television in the UK. This is further supported by unprecedented levels of investment in UK Studio space and content, which bodes well for the Company's growth ambitions.

· The Company raised £15m of gross proceeds on admission to trading on AIM and has already started to invest by expanding orders for additional vehicles and trailers to meet demand.

· Recent contract wins with new and existing customers have strengthened ADF's expanding network of contacts.

· The Group continues to have strong order visibility in the new financial year with the 2022 order book almost fully booked."

[hastings] 29/5/2022 19:17

Take a look at the number of productions the CEO is confident of exceeding this year in contrast to last year and I guess you have the answer!

[adamb1978] 29/5/2022 18:17

Does anyone have a view on the FY22 revenue forecasts of £31.8m in light of ADF making £16.3m revenue in H2 FY21?

Is there any seasonality in this business? Obviously doubling H2 FY21 as the run-rate basis for FY22 and then growing it will take revenue a good but above the £31.8m

Thanks

[saucepan] 29/5/2022 16:18

A very insightful piece, Martin; thanks for writing and sharing.

[masurenguy] 29/5/2022 13:11

Cheers Martin - a good analysis based upon interesting and positive management feedback. The perspective on Netflix was really self-evident but it is interesting to see management confirming this.

"There is an element of frustration with the perception regarding the industry as recently played out in the press regarding Netflix subscriptions. Proctor says that the major industry players have very large pockets with multi revenue streams and he views increasing competition in the space positively. “Netflix enjoyed the lie of the land for a long time without much in the way of competition and Amazon and others are really just starting out on their journey now. It will continue to evolve and that is good for us and subscribers too, so we don't see it as a problem for us, rather it is a positive thing. Apple for instance are building their own studios here now and they will be here for a long time, so it is looking very good with positive signals that are contrary to what has been seen in the press around Netlix, so we are therefore positive and view the future as being very, very bright”.

The metrices are also very positive too.
"Cenkos is forecasting revenue to hit £31.8m with EBITDA at £7.8m and pre-tax profits of £3.5m with EPS of 4.6p. For next year, the same broker anticipates revenue increasing to £38.4m with EBITDA at £10.2m and pre-tax profit of £4.5m which would see EPS of 5.9p. There is also expectation of a total maiden dividend for the current year of 1.4p per share, rising to 1.8p next year. At the current price the shares stand on a forward PER of 11 (2023) which looks decent value ."

[hastings] 29/5/2022 11:52

Write up for interest.Https://martinflitton1.wixsite.com/privatepunter/post/plenty-of-action-at-adf-29-05-22

[melody9999] 28/5/2022 22:38

EezyMunny filtered. Eezy.

When bears are so persistent, it normally means they are in fact short and just trying to influence the share price

[eezymunny] 28/5/2022 09:17

So now we've got bible readers who can't even spell the names of the their bible heroes?

Sums it up nicely.

Barking mad.

Look at the bear case. Always...

[masurenguy] 28/5/2022 06:18

RLOL Martin - spot on !

“Do not give what is holy to the dogs nor cast your pearls before swine” Matthew 7:6.

[hastings] 27/5/2022 21:28

Mathew 7:6

[eezymunny] 27/5/2022 17:23

If you've ordered vehicles and equipment, assuming lots of growth and the growth doesn't come, what happens next yasx?

Neither you nor I know what the future holds, my point is simply that there's a bear case here. You're absolutely determined to blind yourself to it, apparently.

[yasx] 27/5/2022 16:46

Masure,

Noted.

[masurenguy] 27/5/2022 15:47

yasX - please don't keep feeding the troll !