Facilities By Adf Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 04/8/2022 14:57

"Completely is an adverb that comes from the Latin completus, "to fill up." We use it to mean "entirely" or "wholly""Nearly is an adverb, very close to, almost"Nah sorry Adam don't buy it. Six months ago their book was completely full, now it's not, that's the point. But it got the IPO away by saying the former!.If they haven't even read their own admission document, which IMO they haven't otherwise they would have expanded on why the order book isn't full for 2022 in all subsequent updates, then where's the trust?. If in doubt stay out.

[adamb1978] 04/8/2022 14:39

disco

Perhaps the "Completely >> nearly" is just something like a different lawyer doing the verification of their statements? completely obviously means 100%, so even 99.9% would be a false statement?

The PE of 10x-11x is very undemanding and prices in much more risk than 'nearly' fully booked

Adam

[partridge1948] 04/8/2022 14:38

I am hopeful that as a newly listed business, when the results come out, they will be seen to have under promised and over delivered - but I do possess a pair of rose tinted spectacles....

[disc0dave45] 04/8/2022 13:09

RivaldoBeg to differ, surely they would be increasing their fleet / assets based on forecast order book so don't buy that as a reason order book has stagnated. They haven't given a percentage so would accept it may never hit say 95%+ (to allow for some headroom on asset utilisation) but they've not given any indication at all as to how full their book is - why?.If vehicles move during production, whether planned or not, the customers are charged accordingly so again don't understand their statement re budgeted costs.

[yasx] 04/8/2022 12:57

Rivaldo,

Fair point re increased fleet resulting in this being a moving target to fill.

From the last update, a total of 197 new vehicles ordered for 2022/2023 with the fleet size at that time being 514 but anticipated to increase to 600. That might account for some of the failure to fill up the entire order book for 22.

[yasx] 04/8/2022 12:53

Disco,

Enquiries from customers are said to be 12 to 18 months in advance of filming, with the time between a booking confirmed and filming being around 7 months. It is therefore a concern that they have not managed to book up for 2022 at this stage.

You are right that fuel costs involved in delivery of services were said to be passed on to the customer - this looks like a bit of a flimsy excuse today.

[rivaldo] 04/8/2022 12:01

Good to see the share price moving back up as short-termers/profit-takers move on.

Remember that ADF have been investing heavily in adding to their fleet of vehicles this year due to demand, so the "almost fully booked" element is a constantly moving (upwards) target.

I'd also assume that as in any business, if asset utilisation is reduced slightly due to having to move around between productions/sites, then margins would be less as such moving costs "between" productions (rather than during production) are not rechargeable.

[disc0dave45] 04/8/2022 11:46

Agree, I thought lead times were 12-18 months so if not a full order book now then it's not likely to be full for the year.Also I thought movement of fleet during production was charged accordingly and even petrol cost increases are catered for (I'm sure that was mentioned in the IPO docs but would have to double check), so why included as a negative to budgeted costs? Or have I misread that!.

[yasx] 04/8/2022 11:31

Poor update in the context of previous updates - you see, at the time of admission in early January they reported "ADF's fleet capacity already almost fully booked for 2022".

In the finals in May they reported that the 2022 order book was almost fully booked.

Today they announce that the 2022 order book is almost fully booked.

One might interpret that as a very strong start but thereafter a material slowdown in take up of services since they can't seem to get beyond the almost fully booked state. Surely if things were going gangbusters, having made such a strong start the order book would by now have been entirely booked unless momentum has since slowed markedly.

Thus, the poor response to the update is unsurprising. I was fairly confident up to now, and am only mildly confident going forward.

[2torrance] 04/8/2022 09:51

Not sure, I had understood we were in record breaking mode, not marginally ahead mode. I hear constant stories about producers unable to get trucks and equipment and paying record prices to do so. Therefore I expected more than marginally ahead. But it is also true that in recent times stock prices have dropped on trading announcements which is clearly what happened here.

[adamb1978] 04/8/2022 09:36

I wasnt aware of the level of seasonality in the business - obviously a marginally up H1 implies that H2 last year was much stronger than H1 this year

PE cant be much more than 11x based on the current share price though. The backdrop for spending my its customers seems very robust and the business has roughly trebled profits in 3 years, so seems a decent bet to me.

Continue to hold

[kannerwas] 04/8/2022 09:00

I don't know what EM may have done in the past to deserve your description (and please don't tell me, I'm not interested), but post 357 is fair enough. It's only sensible to look for the bear case.

[eezymunny] 04/8/2022 08:22

"revenues for H1-FY22 are expected to be marginally ahead of H1-FY21 levels". Not exactly firing on all cylinders. I continue to wonder if spending is slowing, costs being examined by customers, competition increasing.

"Whilst the distribution of productions in H1-FY22 has seen a larger number of shorter productions than in H1-FY21, resulting in additional budgeted fleet movement costs for moving equipment between productions".

Doesn't sound good either. Expensive to have all that leased fleet unchartered as it's shunted from a to b?

[investing2retire] 04/8/2022 08:13

i think the word "marginally" ahead ws the key. inspiring sellers more than buyers as better opportunities elsewhere for their money

[johndoe23] 04/8/2022 08:10

Market doesn't like for some reason?!

[pauliewonder] 04/8/2022 07:22

Can't ask for more than that from the update. Trading well and looking healthy going forward.

[rivaldo] 04/8/2022 07:14

Encouraging to see ADF confirming their onfidence in trading in line with expectations for the year, having had a good H1 and with that high visibility going forward through 2023.

Acquisitions remain likely soon. And good to see the company confirm the expectations for this year being £31.8m revenues and adjusted EBITDA of £7.8m:



"Additionally, market dynamics remain strong, with continued robust demand for film and high-end television the UK and the Group's 2023 order book continues to grow. Therefore, the Group remains confident of further success."

"The Group has continued to make substantial progress in the first half of 2022 , underpinned by supportive market dynamics, a strong network of contacts and good levels of order visibility, providing the Board with confidence in the long-term success of the business.

Our funds raised at IPO continue to provide us with the means to further strengthen the Company's financial position and continue to execute on our growth strategy. With our order book nearly filled for 2022, we enter the second half in a robust position and look to the future with confidence."

[rivaldo] 01/8/2022 09:25

No probs gswredland.

I also note that the CEO has been tweeting about the major new Star Wars series The Acolyte filming from November, which since he usually tweets about ADF-only productions rather suggests that ADF are involved:



And ADF posted a news story about their provision of facilities to the new Paramount streaming platform for a commercial marking Paramount's launch, evidencing ADF's further diversification into new customers:

[gswredland] 28/7/2022 15:56

Thanks Rivaldo. Hadn't seen that

[rivaldo] 28/7/2022 13:36

Good to see this rather pleasing general update from ADF dated 20th July covering their first six months as a PLC:



Extracts:

"Life as a PLC – Update

During the first six months of the year, we’ve seen solid progress across the group and a great start to life as a publicly listed business on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange."

"The supportive market dynamics have led to a significant increase in demand for our services, with ADF's fleet capacity already almost fully booked for the 2022 calendar year. We have had a total of 197 new vehicles ordered for 2022/2023, with 76 delivered."

"Outlook

We are pleased with the start we have made as a public company and as demonstrated this year, our business model provides a strong platform for sustainable growth. Going forward, the underlying market drivers provide us with confidence that the demand for our services will continue to expand significantly. This, coupled with our extensive network of contacts and sector expertise, positions us well to capitalise on the market opportunity ahead."