Facilities By Adf Share Discussion Threads

[kierandoberman] 20/1/2022 05:29

https://www.theknowledgeonline.com/the-knowledge-bulletin/post/2022/01/14/adfs-stock-exchange-listing-raises-15m?fbclid=IwAR0qiw9__rJdPrPd_v20YzE-My4KdlPMAlS776Ph1ScXam9Kza41EufIkb0

[rivaldo] 19/1/2022 10:28

Excellent info Kierandoberman, cheers - where's the source of this info please?

[kierandoberman] 18/1/2022 18:24

ADF have just started on 7 new productions this week , awaiting delivery of 85 new vehicles and booked solid for the next two years .Management out looking at very locative deals on buy out of other business in their market . All to play for here 100m turn beckons .

[kierandoberman] 17/1/2022 20:46

That's a lot of £,££££ buys reported after market and from the 14th . Someone is loading up .

[sphere25] 17/1/2022 16:52

It is only Monday and already frazzled.

Right, ADF...

Observations:

- A mark up in the price first thing
- A monstrous stream of highly anomalous buying right off the bat
- Eyes lighting up
- Weetabix thrown on the floor

Conclusion:

Someone took their hat off and went behind a bush.



I added more today. All will revealed in due course, but I suspect my low ball price targets could be quite some way off the mark now. More detailed insight information will be coming here.

It looks like someone is gobbling up some shares in the background too. A couple of 175k blocks hitting at 69p at 16:37. I think we are headed into at least the 70's here. The price is currently rallying 5-10% and then consolidating and repeating the pattern i.e. congregation at particular price points by sellers, before clearing to allow the price to rally to the next level.


All imo
DYOR

[rivaldo] 17/1/2022 15:30

In that case 74tom, you may be right, you may be wrong... :o))

[johndoe23] 17/1/2022 14:34

I was thinking this had been tipped somewhere over the weekend, judging by the trades this morning...

[74tom] 17/1/2022 14:30

Why? I'm not a subscriber so it's simply a guess based on the share price reaction, they shouted from the rooftops about the NAPS release date so it's a case of putting 2+2 together. I have no idea whether this is even correct - it could have been tipped elsewhere...

[74tom] 17/1/2022 13:25

Indeed, really strong volume here today and it appears this mornings rise has now been digested & a fresh move into the 70's is imminent. Great to see so much positive coverage of the IPO, thanks to everyone that's shared articles :)

Edit. I'm assuming the reason for this morning rapid rise was ADF being included in the SCSW 2022 NAPS portfolio...

[rivaldo] 17/1/2022 10:19

Going well - great to see this rise on such healthy volumes, with around 570,000 shares traded already today.

Can't believe there's much loose IPO stock left now.

[cheshire man] 17/1/2022 08:23

Let's see where it takes us :-)

[w1lbur01] 17/1/2022 08:06

Seems to be let go to find it's price nice move upwards

[hastings] 17/1/2022 08:01

Nice start to the week!

[rivaldo] 14/1/2022 11:56

Today's new issue of Shares Magazine has a page-long feature on ADF (p.27). Interesting extracts:

"The firm’s average revenue per production has more than doubled in the last three years to £607,000 as programmes and films have become longer and more complex."

"For ADF, 2020 revenue was £8 million against nearer £16 million in 2019, but 2021 saw a dramatic rebound with the firm garnering £11.5 million of revenues in the
first half alone, putting it on track to top £20 million for the full year.

The recovery in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) was even more impressive thanks to a combination of higher prices and higher fleet utilisation, with the increased revenues generated translating straight into earnings."

"Due to the material increase in the consumption of film and TV through streaming
services, all the major US streaming companies have set up permanent bases in the UK taking out studio leases of 10 years or more. This has driven the uptake of ADF’s services with the firm’s production fleet already almost fully booked for this year and customers having to book up to seven months in advance."

"Ultimately, the group has ambitions to grow its annual revenue to £100 million, ‘but that isn’t going to happen organically’ admits Richards. While it already has a large chunk of the UK market, there is scope to take further share with small
local bolt-on acquisitions.

There is also the potential to expand into complementary services like transporting lighting and sound equipment and props, making ADF a ‘one-stop shop’ for its film and TV clients."

[johndoe23] 14/1/2022 08:40

Funny, was watching this very closely thinking this looked very cheap, before NT said he had bought in. On that confirmation bias, have taken a starter position this morning. 75-80p looks doable short term, 100p plus mid to long term

[rivaldo] 14/1/2022 06:42

Nice summary Sphere25.

Great to see ADF attracting NT's attention, though I suspect he may not have read the prospectus as closely as he should have! To say ADF "makes a profit though not a lot" completely misses the point that PBT zoomed up to £2.8m in just the first 6 months of 2021, and growth is expected to continue in that vein for some years to come given that all ADF's facilities are virtually booked to capacity going forward.

[sphere25] 13/1/2022 23:48

NT is Naked Trader aka Robbie Burns. He tips shares mostly every fortnight. Quite a contrast from days gone by when there was two or three updates a week and some amazing share price moves to piggy back off!

So I am up late looking at this one because it almost looks too good. How often does the market give you such a low multiple on a company with numbers, without a stretched balance sheet or something else very wrong with it?

Haven't even looked at IPO's because they kept coming out with stupid multiples. Then they get trashed and they're moaning about it at the likes of ROO that the city here doesn't appreciate them like the US. Clearly there is an element of sense in there too!

Anywho, if I low ball the profit multiple for things like gaining market credibility, concentrated customer risk and very limited growth you can still get to 76p-91p.

Clearly that sounds conservative in light of all the good posts from the shrewd folk on this bulletin board but happy to be conservative.

117 page prospectus though and not all the way through!

Technically, I don't think this one will need much buying to shift rapidly once sellers are cleared at particular price points. Highly illiquid one where there will likely be a congregation at particular price points and then sharp moves once sellers clear.

Look at the share register:

Andrew Dixon 10,593,600 14.0%
Sian Dixon 7,062,400 9.4%
Stephen Haines 10,593,600 14.0%
Julie Fletcher 7,062,400 9.4%
Marsden Proctor 1,400,000 1.9%
John Richards 2,400,000 3.2%
Business Growth Fund 12,000,000 15.9%
Ennismore Fund Management Limited 5,000,000 6.6%
Canaccord Genuity Group 5,000,000 6.6%


Canaccord can be prone to trimming, but there really aren't many shares available here, particularly if someone is trying to build a stake. The market will almost inevitably continue to demand a higher price until one of the existing big holders decides to cut in size. No idea what level that could be. Surely they're looking for at least a doubling in the price here when they ran their models. There is an 18 month lock in for the insiders.

So yes happy to try and piggy back along with this one in the shorter term. Longer term, plenty of smart folk on here to cover everything.

All imo
DYOR

[tanneg] 13/1/2022 20:02

NT has bought in!

"Recent listings have been terrible, usually well over-valued. However there is one that's just been listed that I have taken an initial small position on.

It is the oddly named "Facilities by ADF" (ADF). It has a massive share in the market of hiring trailers and equipment for the film and TV industry.

I think I saw some of their trailers when the local park area by the river was shut off for filming the latest James Bond movie.

Given its already massive share in the UK it's looking to grow into Europe by mainly acquiring others and that's where growth could come in. It also seems to have a good relationship with some of the top players in the market.

So the market cap looks reasonable, it makes a profit though not a lot but you could project into the future and consider profits could jump in time.

My thought for now is I've bought a few for the isa, the idea for a long-term hold with possibility of adding more if it continues to grow and it could turn out to be a nice isa tuckaway, see how it goes. It's also one of those nice under the radar shares."

[the chairman elect] 13/1/2022 08:15

CENKOS on the offer and in size

[hastings] 13/1/2022 08:14

Following on from rivaldo's links, this one from last month is also worth a look.

[hastings] 12/1/2022 07:38

Excellent and informative post rivaldo.I'll add, that during my conversation with management I asked if they'd had trouble hiring new or retaining existing staff. To date, no problem on that score!

[rivaldo] 12/1/2022 07:25

This article from November is food for thought about the booming UK film and TV industry:



Shares Magazine also covered ADF's IPO usefully:

[masurenguy] 11/1/2022 13:40

Great report and summary hastings, which obviously triggered the mid-morning shareprice rise by bringing ADF onto more peoples radar, with over 140 viewings since posted at just after 11.00am.