Facilities By Adf Share Discussion Threads

[red ninja] 19/11/2024 09:30

From Rockwood Strategic Interims :-


Facilities by ADF

The 'writers' strike' of 2023 impacted this business which provides premium-quality serviced vehicle hire for TV and Film productions, specialising in high end TV/feature films to some of the world's largest traditional and on-demand content production companies such as Netflix, Amazon Prime, Sky, Paramount+, Disney+, Apple TV, HBO Max, ITV and BBC. The industry appears to have structural growth due to modern demand for attractive content for which ADF's 700+ vehicles provide high quality studio and on-location assets. Sales are expected to have almost doubled in the three years to December 2024. We supported a key strategic acquisition to diversify the business, drive scale and unlock revenue synergies. High barriers to entry abound, supported by strong margins which does not justify a single digit PE ratio. We expect a recovery in trading, further accretive bolt-on acquisitions and a justified re-rating of the shares which we purchased at 50p. On current market expectations, the shares were valued on a PE of 5x for their financial year 2025, at period end.

[nakedmolerat] 18/11/2024 19:11

what a terrible float this has been, of course the writers strike making it worse. why the hell are they paying a dividend if not making money, they should keep that cash pile. i cannot see the share price recovering until there is good news on a recovery. it's a bit like catching a falling knife, when will stop and where is the bottom?

[qs99] 14/11/2024 15:45

would be good to see more BoD buying, put their £s where their collective mouths are.

Personally have doubled down for next year as feels like slippage rather than fundamentals, but DYOR....let's see...one for the patient now, need some better contract win type RNS and steady as she goes updates for next 6 months to restore confidence....

[chester9] 13/11/2024 07:40

John Richards Non-Executive ChairmanPurchase of Ordinary Shares Price 30.5 volume 200,000This actually makes it worse. Yes we knew it was bad so waited for price to drop by 40% to show confidence by buying at 20p less than the mugs we convinced who bought at 50p. Awful show by Bod. Feels like a used car salesman telling you they will buy the old banger back from you at 40% discount when they told you they it was perfect when you bought it.

[gopher] 13/11/2024 00:57

The most telling stat of the day was 20ml shares traded out of 56ml; there must be a lot looking for a new home but it's difficult to see where. A reiterate my post that there is no hurry to buy into this stock as they need some decent trading more than ever. That won't happen till next summer.

[eigthwonder] 12/11/2024 09:52

And they wonder why UK small caps struggle to gain the confidence of investors....

[chester9] 12/11/2024 09:41

If FY revenue 35m of which autotrak would be 4m that gives H2 15.7m for ADF. Thats 21% up for H2. Agreed miles off Cavendish. 40% growth on ADF next year gives 51m. (Includes 8.3m for autotrak) SP 31p gives PE of 8. Given lost trust this looks priced right if you take optimistic 40% growth next year. Not sure I would wait for 40% to come true.

[monet] 12/11/2024 08:38

Raised 10 million at 50p in a placing only 3 months ago

[bigbigdave] 12/11/2024 08:35

Yes, covered in the July and October issue this year plus 4 times in 2023.

[saucepan] 12/11/2024 08:28

Another SCSW "gem", if I recall correctly.

[eezymunny] 12/11/2024 08:15

The sacrificed bodies of the EBITDA worshippers are piling up...

Always been a rampy EBITDA-quoting nonsense IMO.

If you held, you deserve the kicking IMO.

[kevph] 12/11/2024 08:07

325 staff NI impact next year so they can write off 2025 as well. They could have mentioned this, instead there are some vague promises of stuff in the pipeline and it will be OK. No creditability at all. Wasted far too much time on this money hoover. Onto something else.

[pireric] 12/11/2024 07:57

Spot on Chester. How truthful were the company over the past few months given what this announcement is saying?

An awful look, and I'd go as far to say they have permanently ruined their public market reputation already. Deservedly so.

Shambolic and a complete bargepole stock for many investors now I suspect, regardless of where the valuation gets to.

Spend time investing in good companies with track records of delivery, not what ADF have messaged in recent months and announced today. Not worthy of public market investor attention.

[chester9] 12/11/2024 07:35

Cavendish forecasts in tatters

[chester9] 12/11/2024 07:32

And now we see why the family sold a chunk. They would have seen this pipeline months ago films and TV are not a quick process. Some big firms came in to back the raise not good.

[greybroath] 27/10/2024 11:44

I have a stake but I'm increasingly thinking like Adam above: cashflow is the issue and companies ultimately live or die on cash.

[gopher] 17/9/2024 18:40

My thoughts are this is an equipment rental business operating in a sector where new equipment has been bought for cash by private owners. It seems that utilisation and possibly depreciation of existing stock are very good and coming to the market gives access to financing for expansion of fleet.

[gopher] 17/9/2024 13:20

Have found it difficult to get my head around the opportunity with this company given strikes, acquisitions and director sales.

I believe they are a sound business but the directors sales indicate that there is no hurry to buy into the story until all is clearer with future published results.

[adamb1978] 16/9/2024 07:20

I previously owned ADF but sold out 18-24 months ago.

The problem with them is that keeping the price high somewhat relies on analysts/investors focussing on P&L (EBITDA and above) rather than cashflow.

The reason I say that is £2.7m was spent on leases in H1, however under accounting rules that now hits the P&L as deprecation and interest, rather than opex, so the £2.5m Adj EBITDA becomes negative once you subtract the lease costs. Focussing on EBITDA is completely mis-leading.

Company needs to be valued on a P/E or Adj EBITDA minus lease basis (unless you're investing on the back of a recovery in its end markets, and therefore more of a growth focus)

[hastings] 16/9/2024 07:07

Been a while since I last spoke with management, having exited prior to the actors strike fall out, but catching up again this morning.Looking attractive once more and if it can deliver on the 2025 forecasts, then the shares could put in a decent recovery.

[74tom] 12/9/2024 10:11

@Rivaldo, Cavendish are forecasting H2 revenue of £33.4m, more than double H1. If that turns out to be correct then operational gearing will mean EBITDA jumps significantly (H123 saw revenue of £21.8m and adj. EBITDA of £5.8m)

As it is, I'll wait to see what they say on Monday.

[ali47fish] 10/9/2024 19:34

harwood cap are well known and very adept at inversting in small caps

[mammyoko] 10/9/2024 17:19

Harwood just taken a 10% stake here in the Oryx fund?? Can't see them listed as significant shareholders before

[rivaldo] 27/8/2024 11:20

What are people's thoughts on this?

ADF said in the acquisition RNS that:

"the Company currently expects to report unaudited H1-FY24 revenues of approximately £15.2 million and H1-FY24 adjusted EBITDA of approximately £2.5 million"

Assuming Autotrak makes £4.3m EBITDA again this year, that contributes around £1.4m to ADF, giving £3.9m EBITDA on top of the H1 result.

But Cavendish's forecast is for £12.6m EBITDA for this year. Which means the core ADF business will have to earn a whopping £8.7m in just this H2 in order merely to meet forecasts.

Have I miscalculated? If not than there's surely a huge possibility of a profit warning/downgrades?