Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[cf456] 09/11/2023 15:45

Today's Tennyson 75p target note here:

[someuwin] 09/11/2023 15:37

...

New fiscals drive NAV & CF upgrades, despite marginally lower oil price: We have worked the new Block 3/05 fiscal terms into our CF forecasts and NAV (summarised in Figures 1, 3 & 6), as well as the recent downward move in the Brent forward curve for FY23-25 (since our last publication in Sept 23). The net result is a 31% & 24% uplift in Core NAV & Total NAV to 43p & 76p, respectively. In addition, our FY24-25e EBITDA moves up 9-16% to US$66-60m. With Afentra shares trading on a P/NAV of 0.4x and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 1.8-1.3x FY24-25, we continue to see significant scope for a re-rating at current levels – with less than full value attached to the existing assets, let alone the future potential of Afentra’s acquisition platform.

[someuwin] 09/11/2023 15:29

Tennyson:

GOVERNMENT APPROVAL LANDS

In a corporate update this morning, Afentra (AET) announced Government approval of the Sonangol acquisition clearing a key regulatory hurdle in the consolidation of its ownership in Block 3/05, offshore Angola. Alongside this news, the company reiterated that it expects to complete both the Sonangol and Azule Energy transactions by year-end and unveiled specific details around the improved fiscal terms on Block 3/05. We have adjusted our model to reflect the fiscal amendments, as well as the latest Brent forward curve, yielding a ~24% increase in our Total NAV and a ~12% upgrade in aggregate FY24-25e EBITDA (to US$125m, 0.9x EV). Noting increased visibility around deal completion and the marked uplift in asset value, we reiterate our BUY stance with a revised target price of 75p (vs. 60p).

[cf456] 09/11/2023 14:17

"#AET ERCE report on new Fiscal Terms (per RNS) is now uploaded on co. website. NPV10 of Afentra's share of Licence has increased by $40.4m to $254.9m! Current mkt cap is c.70% discount to that! Afentra PLC - Government Approval of Sonangol Acquisition"

[mount teide] 09/11/2023 08:51

Very pleasing news when considering the tremendous reinvestment potential of these huge assets, which until recently, have seen a complete dearth of workover and water injection investment since 2015, and no drilling since 2005.

Today's RNS should be the catalyst for the announcement of a further highly material acquisition in the region during the next three to six months.

[onedayrodders] 09/11/2023 08:20

No froth or hype from this company .. just getting on with the job

Very pleased

[palisz] 09/11/2023 08:13

Afentra is pleased to announce that it has received approval from the Government of Angola for the acquisition from Sonangol Pesquisa e Producao S.A. ('Sonangol') of a 14% non-operating interest in Block 3/05 and a 40% non-operating interest in Block 23, offshore Angola (the 'Sonangol Acquisition') pursuant to a sale and purchase agreement between Sonangol and Afentra's wholly-owned subsidiary, Afentra (Angola) Ltd, dated 20 April 2022, as amended and restated on 18 July 2023.

[onedayrodders] 07/11/2023 17:46

I doubt that ... we are not the sort of stock to attract those "Twitter boiler room" sort as we are not a disruptive blue sky technology stock that's about to 100 bag (and never does).

I think it's just the general terrible AIM sentiment where people are happy to monetize any gains, even if for a few % here and there.

Despite the sales I'd say the share price has held up well so bullish for me.

ODR

[eringael] 07/11/2023 15:35

Strange to see lots of sells today, hope it was not a mini ramp as seen quite a few posts on Twitter - people will do anything for 10%

[billy two cocks] 06/11/2023 19:03

Very encouraging.

[mount teide] 06/11/2023 16:46

Strong buying volume pushes the stock up to the highest closing price since January.

[mount teide] 03/11/2023 15:16

According to Euroclear's monthly stock on loan report issued today, the average short position for October was 3.58%, down from 3.95% in September.

[smackeraim] 03/11/2023 10:08

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1031975/corcel-shares-whirl-after-striking-oil-in-angola-1031975.html

[smackeraim] 03/11/2023 07:14

CRCL guys!The Operator, Sonangol, have advised Corcel that the Tobias-13 well penetrated the entire Binga reservoir section (120m column)

[mount teide] 28/10/2023 13:19

Interestingly - with the shares suspended at around 14p during H1/2022 while acquisition negotiations continued with Sonangol, the short position increased from 1.8% to 5.1%.

When the suspension was lifted in H2/2023, the shareprice surged to circa high twenties on confirmation of the Angolan offshore acquisition deal....yet the short position has only since fallen to 3.95%.

[smackeraim] 27/10/2023 13:50

Interview from Angola with CRCL Chairman and their current spud (awaiting results any day) with Sonangol. https://www-expansao-co-ao.translate.goog/grande-entrevista/interior/estamos-a-negociar-a-aquisicao-de-mais-blocos-de-petroleo-e-gas-em-angola-115129.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[onedayrodders] 24/10/2023 17:15

Many thanks ZENGAS for all that info

[zengas] 24/10/2023 14:26

19/10/23

AEW2023 Underscores Evolving Role Independents Plays in Africa’s Exploration and Production (E&P) Space Independent oil and gas companies are taking on a more proactive role in Africa

Integrating innovation with technology and expertise, independents are leading the next wave of successful oil and gas projects. However, attracting these companies to the market comes with its own challenges. In the current energy transition climate, independents are being increasingly selective with their investments.

Tim O’Hanlon, Senior Advisor at Panoro Energy, acknowledged that, "The industry has adapted and exploration is still going on," however he believes that, "It will be a tough enough gig from here on out, because of the general uncertainty associated with the industry."

As such, fiscal reform has become necessary for attracting independents to markets. O’Hanlon expanded on this topic, stating that, "You need to knock their socks off in terms of attractive fiscal terms."

Echoing these remarks, Ian Cloke, COO of Afentra, stated that, "The race for capital is on, and it’s a global race. Capital will go where it is easiest, so you need to make sure you’re the most attractive one."

"Governments are facing the challenge of deciding whether to adjust fiscal terms, being able to utilize natural resources and beneficiate them for other industries, or leave them in the ground and rely on imports. Ultimately, the prize for government is developing fields rather than leaving them in the ground. So, making terms attractive and allowing fields to be developed in an appropriate timeframe is important."

Rather than focus on frontier opportunities, both Panoro Energy and Afentra prioritize mature assets, with a business structure centered on maintaining production at producing fields. O’Hanlon explained that, "We don’t do frontier. We develop discoveries that were made years ago." This creates significant opportunities for African countries, ensuring IOC divestment does not translate to rapid declines in output.

Similarly, Cloke explained that, "Afentra was set up for mature assets. We see a long journey from a transition perspective in Africa and we see these big assets producing for a number of years."

The panel concluded that through appropriate fiscal reforms, African countries comprising both frontier and established markets will be able to attract independents, leveraging their expertise to unlock new opportunities for energy security.

[zengas] 24/10/2023 14:25

AET should mirror Panoros growth

Panoro 3 year history on production, revenue, reserves, net debt, dividends and m/cap.

2020 Production = 2200 bopd.

Revenue $26.9m. Cash $5.7m. Debt $21.3m.

--------------------

9th Feb 2021 Eq Guinea & Gabon acquisitions of 6900 bopd + 25 mmbo 2P for $140m .

Financed with $70m placing and debt of $90m from Trafigura.

113m shares in issue 21 NOK at this date = N2.37 billion = £174m m/cap.

-----------------------------

RNS 23/2/22 = Year end 2021 Production 7495 bopd. Total 35.8 mmbo P2, Revenue $119.7m. Net debt $72m .

RNS 30/11/22 = "USD 20 million core dividend paid on a quarterly basis in cash weighted towards H2 and subject to average oil price realisation remaining above USD 80 per barrel after the effects of any hedging.

Target distribution for 2023 of USD 30 million subject to higher oil price realisation of USD 90 per barrel being achieved for the year after the effects of any hedging"

----------------------------

2023 Production

Q1 = 6,320 bopd

H1 2023 results = Revenue $66m. 'Net debt' at 30/6/23 = $50.4m

Working interest production averaged 7,220 bopd in the first half (H1 2022: 7,860 bopd).

71m NOK paid out in Dividends to end H1 = $6.7m paid out so far for H1

$6.7m paid out so far for H1.

117m shares in issue NOK 30 = N3.5 Billion = £260m m/cap against a an average broker target price of $4.18 or £390m m/cap



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AET = same 2P, approx 6,600 bopd. A $10m future dividend = 3.5p or 12.5% at the current share price or 3.3% yield at a £1 target price = £220.5m m/cap or 15% discount to Panoro. Should track Panoros rising production via 3/05 peak target programme and 3/05A commercial start up - not to mention any further acquisitions.

[croasdalelfc] 20/10/2023 19:57

When M&P bought 20% in 2019 the block was producing 4600bopd net to them. 4 years later it is still producing 4350bopd with little intervention during the covid years and only the water flood and LWI capex since . Ie $11m on the LWI this year - It's nailed on that 4600bopd will be beaten on 2024 with further targeted investment (my words) into the water injection . A fantastic investment for M&P that AET are trying to match.Water injection has only reached 60% of capacity (4 out of 9 pumps) and is intermittent due to leaks, pump failures etc. Once stable and up to 80-100% capacity the field should easily reach 25kbopd (7500 bopd net to AET) PS the new tax terms started 1st Oct

[croasdalelfc] 20/10/2023 08:31

FSO Palanca offshore block 3/05 is huge with a capacity of 2.2m barrels of oil.It was refitted in 2013 with a 20 year expectancy before another refitThe accrued Azule barrels will hit 1m in Mid Nov

[croasdalelfc] 20/10/2023 07:48

M&P completed their purchase of 20% of Block 3/05 on 31 July 2019 - it was backdated to. Jan 1 2018 . 19 months backdated revenue and inventory. They paid net $35m (initial headline purchase price was $80m) . That is 44% of initial price with Brent averaging $69 in the backdated period.Fast forward to AET for Sonogol acquisition 14% of Bock 3/05 for $56m (the same $4m per 1%)20 Nov 2023 will be19 months backdated .Brent average is $90 through that period (and rising slightly)44% of $56m would be net ~$24.5m35% of $56m would be net ~$20mWith a much higher Brent then perhaps it will be as low $18m-$20m by end Nov