Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 08/5/2023 11:31

ex - 'The lawless third world will just burn everything'

Having either worked in or visited 117 countries over the last 40 years - that is largely what I would expect to see. Most emerging economies are still very poor, and want cheap energy and the cheaper the better.

Most of Africa is still in the early years of 'transitioning' from firewood to coal, which the West used overwhelmingly to generate energy for over 50 years to develop their economies and lifestyles to a level that more than 90% of the world can still only dream about.

To suggest that the rest of the world, which still consumes one fifteenth of the energy per capita of the West, should also transition to renewable energy to help the West save the planet and its animals, so that wealthy Westerners can still have their African safari holidays is laughable, and shows just how out of touch the people who attended the last Davos economic and climate summit actually are, particularly when they had the gall to collectively arrive in 470 private jets to lecture the World on the need for urgent measures to deal with the problem.

[excellance] 08/5/2023 10:33

The lawless third world will just burn everything, their crops will fail, and due to famine they will migrate to Europe.

[mount teide] 08/5/2023 10:27

PcW - 'The World in 2050'

For the Emerging Nations of the world with a combined population some 6 times that of the West, and bolting on growth equivalent to the entire population of the West every 13 years, to grow their collective GDP to be 6-7 times that of the EU and 3-4 times that of the US in the next 27 years will take enormous amounts of additional energy.

If the events of the last few years are a reliable guide, one thing that can be said with complete certainty is that the overwhelming majority will not come from hugely expensive, unreliable Wind and Solar Energy.

Why? Check out Enerdata's research on Global Energy Consumption Growth through to 2050:

YR 2000 Energy Consumption - Mtoe
2,172 - Asia Pacific
1,727 - North America
1,305 - Europe
565 - CIS
442 - Latin America
345 - Africa
263 - Middle East

YR 2050 - Estimated Energy Consumption - Mtoe
5,382 - (+148%) - Asia Pacific
1,131 - (+228%) - Africa
1,071 - (-38%) - North America
889 - (-32%) - Europe
690 - (+162%) - Middle East
686 - (+55%) - Latin America
570 - (+1%) - CIS

10,419 Mtoe - 2050 Est
6,829 Mtoe - 2000 Actual

+52.7% Increase in Global Energy Consumption

Source: Enerdata 2021/22 - Conclusion: "Emerging economies will be the main contributors of global energy demand increase."

The challenge? Poor Emerging economies currently generate an average of 70% of their electricity demand from cheap coal, and post the commencement of the Global Energy Crisis have materially increased their consumption of coal, contrary to the 2050 Net Zero model assumptions.

Additionally, the Enerdata Energy Demand forecast was made prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine bringing forward a global energy crisis already in the making.......and the catastrophic increase in the cost of 'renewable' energy from rising global interest rates and near double digit inflation.

AIMHO/DYOR

[x54v] 05/5/2023 05:15

Baron keen on the upside:

“AET and ARCM have huge potential legs, the former needs to close and then non dilute on next deal (what I expect)…”

[x54v] 03/5/2023 13:29

Joanne Hart discusses Afentra, Jersey Oil & Gas, Artisanal Spirits & Intelligent Ultrasound

[jungmana] 02/5/2023 09:06

AET if all goes as expected, should be worth 70p+ soon on deals conclusion .I have a sizeable holding here and in AXL which I intend to hold for next 2+ years

[mount teide] 02/5/2023 08:20

Encouraging start to the week - good of MIDAS to highlight the tremendous value on offer at Afentra to a wider audience.

[mount teide] 01/5/2023 16:46

Reading between the lines of the management's market communiques and presentations this year and the news that the Angolan deals are now largely paid for under the terms of the acquisitions ........its difficult not to draw the inference that the management are more than a little restless for these deals to complete, as this will be the catalyst allowing them to rapidly progress other deals they have negotiated.

[zengas] 01/5/2023 15:28

If these 2 deals are soon concluded, they'll be practically paid for.

Isn't there a team/staff of 18-19 at AET ?

So with the number of opportunities being screened and the time lapse since the original deal signing, something else on the deal front to announce must be getting closer as they don't sit around for ever if anyone else is interested.

Good to see the Mail mention that "several are in the pipeline and the hope is to achieve daily production running into tens of thousands of barrels in years to come".

[mount teide] 01/5/2023 11:35

The O&G sector currently trades at 50 year low valuations despite demonstrating it can generate all time record free cash flow at $75 oil - almost without exception, long stockmarket history shows investor greed has a very reliable reputation in rectifying such anomalies/market dislocations.

Goldman Sachs last week:

'The energy sector is the cheapest of all 11 US market sectors, with a current PE ratio of 6.7.

In comparison, the next cheapest sector is Basic Materials with a PE valuation of 10.6 while Financials is third cheapest at a PE value of 14.1. For some perspective, the S&P 500 average PE ratio currently sits at 22.2.

So, we can see that oil and gas stocks remain dirt cheap even after last year’s massive run-up, thanks in large part to years of underperformance.

Rosenberg has analysed PE ratios by energy stocks by looking at historical data since 1990 and found that, on average, the sector ranks in just its 27th percentile historically. In contrast, the S&P 500 sits in its 71st percentile despite last year’s deep selloff.'

So, what this research is telling us is that even at $80 Brent O&G valuations could triple and still be cheaper to buy than the S&P 500!

[jungmana] 01/5/2023 10:48

MT , some investors imo just dont fancy companies operating in Africa or just haven't got the patience for the bureaucracy as you posted earlier. Once both deals are concluded Imo the share price should be a lot higher than today.Our other holding AXL is in a similar position, despite more than doubling Colombia oil production in the last 3 months , earning huge netbacks on wells that payback costs in 2 months the share price is about same level as last summer. Both companies should imo provide good returns on investment in the near term.Let's hope the midas article brings in some investors to clear out the seller(s)

[mount teide] 01/5/2023 09:18

Midas has a decent following and the article reads well.

'The agreements mean that McDade will end up paying out considerably less in upfront cash than he would have done had the deals completed straightaway.'

The better researched spotted this many, many months ago and, that for a June 2023 completion date, the structure of the deals would see Afentra pay only a small fraction of the published headline price for the assets..

The Sonangol and INA deal structures and recent oil price weakness(since recovered after OPEC+ cut production to support its preferred $80-$90 oil price range) has created a very material market dislocation investment opportunity at Afentra.

Despite Afentra now likely to pay only a small fraction of the headline price for the assets and with the price of oil still comfortably above the $75 average price in Q4/2021 when the O&G industry broke it's all time FCF record(set nearly a decade before when oil averaged nearly $150/bbl after adjustment for inflation).......Afentra shares can still be picked up some 10% to 20% cheaper than the price they averaged in the 8 months following the announcement of the acquisitions, when the full acquisition headline price was expected to be paid.

ie: Afentra shares are now available at a 10-20% discount to the price when investors expected the company to pay the full headline price for the Angolan acquisitions!

AIMHO/DYOR

[rimau1] 30/4/2023 13:00

Tipped in the daily mail midas column

[yawn1971] 26/4/2023 16:26

Some hefty trades going thru post 4pm

[mount teide] 18/4/2023 15:15

African small/mid cap companies are overwhelmingly INVESTORS not TRADERS type of investments - principally due to the regulatory approval process for acquisitions, planning and environmental consents, license extensions, oil/mining exploration drilling etc proving far more drawn out affairs by Western standards.

Long may it continue - as it can often throw up remarkable value and growth opportunities.

[onedayrodders] 18/4/2023 15:00

Glad to see short term traders getting flushed out today

[upwego] 17/4/2023 23:40

Very nice news indeed :)

[onedayrodders] 17/4/2023 18:32

I guess by all accounts, Mr Griffiths had no choice with his recent sales, but I doubt he enjoyed today

[wbodger] 17/4/2023 17:38

It closed above my average for the first time for weeks. A rare day when the time of the RNS could be guessed from the share price trading graph.

[mount teide] 17/4/2023 15:58

‘This Licence Extension addendum (the "Addendum") is to extend the Block 3/05 PSA from 31 December 2025 to 31 December 2040 with improved fiscal terms that strengthen the economics of the permit’. Like the sound of ‘Improved Fiscal Terms’!

[zengas] 17/4/2023 15:22

With these two acquisitions significantly paid down by now i'm hoping that they come through this year on one or more "Similar scale and larger operated and non operated on and off shore opportunities being evaluated"

You should get faster deleverage in paying down the next asset(s) with these two almost cleared.

[onedayrodders] 17/4/2023 15:11

I'm guessing when all signatures are in and it's a 100% done deal ... the RNS will spell out the impact of the accrued sales so far so all can see.Should be a major catalyst for another re-rating ODR