Active Energy Share Discussion Threads

[johnwalsham] 29/1/2015 08:06

Typical aim

[shaunstar] 29/1/2015 00:32

el1tes last article suggested fair value of £42.8m (this included one tenth of forestry estimated at £14.8m). So £28m for the business alone.

The aggregate of 3 bids is $300m. This says to me there is competition and demand for the forestry. The minimum bid must be $100m but could be more-lets suppose $110m. 45% is £32.2m.

32.2+28 is 60.2m

Given the competition who's to say there wont be further higher bids?so we could be looking at a valuation base case much higher at present. Plus there is the remaining 100k hectares or so deemed less commercial. Perhaps something can be made of that. This is the bull case obviously risks remain in the execution.

[gerryjames] 28/1/2015 23:42

LOL...well done Elite and ditto re drawing attention, I did mention it was one of your fancies, on the AEX thread many months ago....FWI was W...😊

More Good Luck.

[ryandj2222] 28/1/2015 19:37

proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/76713/active-energy-more-than-doubles-on-confirmation-of-canada-forestry-bids-76713.html

[ryandj2222] 28/1/2015 19:37

“It is very important to note that they [the offers] are conditional; they are subject to further due diligence, obviously, which you’d expect; they may or may not be accepted by the KAQUO shareholders,” Spinks said.

This is from proactive investors...
[...]

[robhammers] 28/1/2015 18:52

100 million dollars is their entire market cap. Rest all for free. Madness. Wish I had more . was going to sell at 4p. Shows long term hold always pays off. Might be one of best shares of this year.

[greenroom78] 28/1/2015 18:47

Just catching up on today's news and looking to have a stab at a valuation as a newbie to AEG.

If they say aggregate of 3 offers is $300m then you would expect worst case is $100m (if all are the same) and possible that one is a bit better. Then looking at 45% of that to AEG for this asset.

Before the news they were trading on a P/E for 2015 of around 11.4 (from digital look based on an EPS of 0.34p for this year) but I'm guessing that isn't relating to this project so very little in the price for this asset given the forecasted EPS growth?

If the EPS of 0.34p for this year is correct then a P/E of 27 isn't astronomically for a high growth company without any asset value that may be added.

Would welcome views?

[opaldouglas] 28/1/2015 17:16

Hi El1te,

I'm well thanks, taking a bit of a break from my shares for the most part so far this year to pursue other interests.

Congrats on your well earned profit, i must admit its all been a bit too easy with AEG - if only all shares were that way. From memory my initial purchase was circa 1.75 so you've pipped me there!

All the best, catch up soon.

OD

[proactivest] 28/1/2015 17:09

Interview on Proactive Investors with Richard Spinks: hxxp://t.co/35KkKSalCL

[glasshalfull] 28/1/2015 17:01

El1te - Thanks for flagging initially via your blog. Greatly appreciated.

Regards
GHF

[el1te] 28/1/2015 16:58

Hi OD,

I hope you are well; I have exited on that rise today after almost a year tracking AEG on the basis that the market is going to find it hard to find a short-term price for AEG pre-contracts being signed. After all, the precise quantum of hectarage and size of each offer are the important points, but ultimately should be kept highly confidential during the negotiation process.

I have put it back on my watchlist as Spinks has clearly proved his skillset here, and the valuation would probably be undemanding at this level even post-a-deal given its 108k hectares vs. 250k hectares possible. The volatile price movements that are likely to ensue are enough deterrent for me in the near-term though.

Anyhow, a 518% rise from my second site addition at 1.625p is hardly something to grumble about!

All the best; I will remain monitoring closely with interest.

El1te

[par555] 28/1/2015 16:47

RNS says the 3 offers 'in aggregate' come to 300m dollars and 'it is the intention to accept one of these offers' subject to due diligence.So perhaps the initial deal will be for considerably less than 300m ?

[21trader] 28/1/2015 16:47

I misread the Rns so bought in and quickly sold when I re-read it.

The LSE crowd must have caused the squeeze but I think when everybody has had time to digest the news there will be profit taking in the morning.

[bahiflyer] 28/1/2015 16:41

Lightfield the aggregate of the 3 offers is $300M, ie thats the total, and only one of the offers will be taken up if any.

Back to pumping Afren for you, how they doing?

[henley2] 28/1/2015 16:37

RNS wording a bit ambiguous. 3 deals in aggregate worth $300m. Let's assume $100m each x 45% = $45m net to AEG (£30m).

[opaldouglas] 28/1/2015 16:36

I've just seen the news, bloody fantastic! Oh why didn't i buy more, lol.

OD

[mjcrockett] 28/1/2015 16:26

Shanklin I agree with your assessment. The offers are conditional and subject to due diligence.

[lightfield] 28/1/2015 16:21

Basic sums are:

$300m divided by 1.52 into £'s x 45% ownership divided by 559 million shares gives 15.9p plus rest of the business.

That is if each offer is for $300M USD.

[shanklin] 28/1/2015 16:21

Sum of three offers was circa $300m. So, they could all be circa $100m, in which case AEG's share would be $45m.

All IMHO. DYOR!!

[lightfield] 28/1/2015 16:18

$300m offer. thats more then 3x the current market cap.

20-25p this should be at.

[lightfield] 28/1/2015 16:15

WOW amazing news here. got to be worth 20p+

[opaldouglas] 28/1/2015 14:55

ryan83 - apologies for the late reply. Best to read E1ites commentary regarding Canadian asset, i really couldn't add much more.

Looking good.

OD