Abbey Nat. Share Discussion Threads

[broadwood] 01/9/2004 16:21

Santander won't have to counterbid , if an HBos bid is disallowed. They aren't a charity.

[dm1] 01/9/2004 15:43

Plenty of upside, Santander doesn't want to walk away. It will counterbid, with eventually HBOS topping it with a bid Santander cannot match. Yes Sunday papers suggests approx. 715p could be final bid price. DM1

[broadwood] 01/9/2004 15:42

Point is - if a bid is referred , we have a very long wait and then the possibility/ probability it will be disallowed.

Price would then return to level of Santanders bid.

Given all those factors, todays price may be generous.

[bluemango] 01/9/2004 15:37

Thanks DM1. 640p being talked about which would still be quite a nice premium on today's price, but didn't I read recently that HBOS could afford to go up to 700 plus if it turned into a bidding war? Still some mileage left in this anyway, it seems.

[dm1] 01/9/2004 14:50

Wait for ALL offers & then decide. (After HBOS bid, Santander will counterbid, expected HBOS will then increase bid further) DM1

[broadwood] 01/9/2004 13:37

Main Board meeting of HBOS today or tomorrow - could be they have decided to go for it.

Trouble is a referral to the C.C is a virtual certainty - meaning inactivity for six months or more . To sell or not to sell

[timmyman] 01/9/2004 11:47

610 close would be nice -

[bluemango] 01/9/2004 11:35

Thanks guys. Finally breached year 2003 resistance level btw.

[guppyworld] 01/9/2004 11:31

LOOKS LIKE IT!!

[dm1] 01/9/2004 11:27

Price seems to be shooting up. Bid anticipated imminently.

[timmyman] 01/9/2004 11:22

if HBOS only got access to the data-room a while ago it will take them a week at least to see if its worth their while - i am thinking next week will be when it comes through - probably tuesday or wednesday -

[mzj71852] 01/9/2004 11:20

bid on the way?

[bluemango] 01/9/2004 11:15

Err .... heard rumours today, anyone?

[wendsworth] 31/8/2004 10:39

UP she goes .Nice'n' steady ! Augurs well for all holders.

[markth] 29/8/2004 08:14

Stories in the press this weekend that HSBC is a potential bidder. One piece I saw reckoned a bid from them wouldn't be referred, since none of the lines of business when combined, came above the 25% anti-comptetitive threshold.

[shirishg] 27/8/2004 23:55

Post removed by ADVFN

[raxzi] 27/8/2004 22:01

Maddox
I was only joking but accept what you say

[maddox] 27/8/2004 15:56

Raxzi,

Fair point - I dare say that they are filling their boots as I'm sure that they always follow their own recommendations! But I doubt that they'll buy from me at 610p when they are cheaper in the market..

However, decisions have costs on both sides - a realised loss if you bet on a further bid and it doesn't happen - or an opportunity cost if you fail to act and it does. On the other hand you can put your money in the bank.

Regards, Maddox

[raxzi] 27/8/2004 15:17

Maddox
It might be worth getting on to Deutsche and offering them as many as you can get your hands on. With probabilities of .75 and .8 that makes it .6 of a chance of a bid succeeding. On the basis of a minimum of 550p and a max of 715p that would make ANL at say 610p a very good bet indeed for Deutsche.

[dm1] 27/8/2004 15:08

Yes, but an opinion of a large bank. I personally think, the initial HBOS offer will be 600pish, followed by Santander about 615p, HBOS upping that, and the bidding war begins............ Did someone mention CitiGroup? :-)) DM1

[maddox] 27/8/2004 14:11

DM1,

Nice link. Looks like I'm not alone in my opinion. Deutsche Bank put the odds as 75% on HBOS bidding and 80% of HBOS success and that they could afford to pay up to 715p. Nevertheless, its only an opinion.

Regards, Maddox

[maddox] 27/8/2004 13:52

raxzi,

Afraid not, I'm expressing an opinion just like everyone else on the BB. I have no insider information or a crystal ball. My view is based on what I observe as the usual posturing in these situations and the mentality that appears to drive actions. Everyone has to make up their own minds before they risk any of their money.

DYOR regards, Maddox