Abbey Nat. Share Discussion Threads

[thunders] 27/8/2004 09:24

have a good day.

[dm1] 26/8/2004 08:37

My view, HBOS will bid for Abbey imminently, here's why:

MADRID (AFX) - Banco Santander Central Hispano SA said it is seeking to
speed-up its 8.3 bln stg acquisition of Abbey National PLC, confirming comments
by managing director Juan Rodriguez Inciarte in today's press. An SCH spokesman said: "The comments are true."
Expansion quoted Rodriguez Inciarte as saying: "We're determined to make
this deal and we want to speed-up the process."
"SCH is prepared to fight," he added.
[e-mail]

[dm1] 26/8/2004 06:12

Well, well, well, so HBOS spoke to Abbey re a takeover before the Santander bid, shows HBOS aren't just jumping on the bandwaggon because of another bidder, but wanted Abbey from the outset.

[markth] 25/8/2004 19:53

He works in the cube next to mine ;-)

[raxzi] 25/8/2004 19:38

Maddox
I hope you have knowledge on which to base your claim otherwise you risk losing people money.

[maddox] 25/8/2004 18:25

HBOS have got to contemplate that as things currently stand they are going to end up further down the league tables with a re-capitalised, re-invigorated competitor with a low cost out-sourced cost base to contend with.

On the other hand they might be prepared to conceed some market share in the problem area of mortgages to gain potential scale, synergy and branch rationalisation cost savings.

HBOS will already be racking up a good deal of cost with advisers etc and tying up a lot of their senior management team's time. These things start to build a momentum that is difficult to stop - are they past the point of no return - without losing face? I think they are nearly there.

Regards, Maddox

[wendsworth] 25/8/2004 17:10

ANL is still up on the week.
Those who are content to wait will be richly rewarded !

[dm1] 25/8/2004 15:57

Shorters were in ANL, had to close trades by end of day, drop only small. Looks inevitable HBOS will make a bid, Santander have said they will make a counterbid if any other bidder comes in. DM1

[broadwood] 25/8/2004 14:55

It seems quite a few institutions have sold in the Market - not wanting Spanish paper and the near certainty that if/when a bid comes from HBOS or others,it will be referred.

Of course, all bets are off then for six months.

But, if no other bid is forthcoming, there's a fair bit of downside for the shares.

[raxzi] 25/8/2004 09:25

Hendenne
Apparently SCH has simply refuted the newspaper story which claimed they would walk away.
That's slightly different from making a positive announcement of their position first hand.

[hendenne] 25/8/2004 09:21

This morning's press reports that Santandar have said they will NOT walk away if a competitive bid emerges.........I'm surprised that has not raised the stakes.

[markth] 25/8/2004 05:07

I have posted below the afx news report of HBOS's complaint. It seems to originate from the EC, however the EC spokesperson does not confirm the substance of the complaint.

BRUSSELS (AFX) - The European Commission has received only one complaint so
far from third parties, namely from HBOS PLC, over the proposed merger of Banco
Santander Central Hispano (SCH) SA and Abbey National PLC.
HBOS said yesterday it had complained to the commission about cross-holdings
between the Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC and SCH.
"To my knowledge, the HBOS comment is the only comment we have received on
this deal," said commission spokeswoman Amelia Torres, who stressed that third
parties still have time to send in objections to the merger.
The merger was notified to the commission on Aug 13, and competition
investigators have until Sept 17 to decide whether to clear the deal, or open an
in-depth probe into the potential competition distortions arising from what
would be the largest cross-border merger in European banking history.
Preliminary assessment from experts suggests the commission will give a
green light to the deal.
[e-mail]
adp//jsa

[markth] 25/8/2004 05:02

I never saw these reports....tee hee the plot thickens....there's nothing like a good takeover battle....such fun speculating as to the outcome....this is better than putting your cash on the gee gees lol

[raxzi] 24/8/2004 22:45

I see that HBOS has denied having put the cross shareholding issue to the Europeans and SCH has denied the statement that it would walk away if another bidder came in.

[wendsworth] 24/8/2004 22:04

raxzi: I absolutely agree with sentiment of your final comment ! Having got in early I have well and truly covered my current ANL position .

The 'big four' have been endeavouring to force a change of government policy as to UK bank consolidation on the competition front .Just have a feeling that the ANL situation may be used to take this issue forward.

We'll see.

Incidentally this is a great BB with plenty of sound reasoned comment from genuine holders. My thanks to all such contributors.

[markth] 24/8/2004 19:32

I saw HBOS's carping about cross-holdings as a bit of sour grapes. If they are serious about bidding, there's no way they ought to be spending time on that sort of tactic. SCH have been flushed out of cover on job losses. That'll put small shareholders out but will encourage large holders about synergy/duplication benefits. HBOS need to start trumping SCH on the synergy premium rather than amateur politicking about RBS's back door into SCH. Who going to listen to a 5% shareholder with a vested interest at a board meeting anyway?

I still think HBOS will bid. The big four may also bid just to force it to a referral knowing that they will be blocked but just so that they can get some breathing space to figure out their strategy to compete against the SCH or HBOS/ANL combo. I shall sell shortly after HBOS come in with their bid.

[raxzi] 23/8/2004 22:17

wendsworth
I acted on what I see as the balance of probability (an almost impossible judgement to make). The odds seem to be on SCH winning. If HBOS doesn't like the cross shareholding then others may not like the overlap of ANL and HBOS branches. An amalgamation of branch networks would bring considerable benefit to HBOS but at the same time sound a warning bell to the competition authorities. If CitiGroup came in then I assume the perceived benefit of ownership would be similar to the one SCH anticipates. SCH judge the value of ANL at about 550-560p so why should someone else pay more especially when that someone would not have access to material that ANL presumably have allowed SCH to see?
To me the only way the price is likely to go much above £6 is if a bidding frenzy broke out and I don't see that as likely.
I'm not doubting your sincerity nor your consistency of outlook but they are not qualities that necessarily guarantee success.

[wendsworth] 23/8/2004 21:26

raxzi; A 'flurry' of announcements today. HBOS intention to pursue the RBOS aspect with SCH surely indicates their strong desire to bid . One suspects that HBOS want RBOS out in the open ! This saga definitely isn't over ! The question is as to the identity of the 'fat lady' who ultimately sings ! I suspect that whoever 'she' turns out to be her song will be music to all holders ! GET BACK IN IS MY ADVICE !

PS.YOU'LL NOTE FROM ALL MY POSTS THAT RIGHT FROM THE OUTSET IN MAY WHEN I FIRST TOOK A POSITION IN ANL THAT I'VE BEEN CONSISTENT IN MY COMMENTS.

[raxzi] 22/8/2004 16:01

wendsworth
What I meant was that by threatening to walk away SCH is in effect saying that a rival need only bid to have the field to themselves. Of course SCH might be bluffing to discourage a 'knock-out' bid being made. Then if a lowish bid materialised they (SCH) could come back cheaply as well. Of course if this meant that SCH had not ruled out an auction, provided bids were in small increments, it would be good news for holders. I took 585 on Friday and ran but I may rue the day. There's still time left for others to come in

[wendsworth] 22/8/2004 14:57

raxzi: ANL directors have been operating an 'open-door' policy for the last 12 months !

With the overt backing of RBOS I very much doubt that SCH will 'walk-away' unless HBOS come in with an initial 'knock-out' bid in the region of 625p.

The likely changing view of the Competitoon authority is interesting because with invisible earnings from 'financials' being key to UK balance of payments THE GOVERNMENT IS WORRIED ABOUT US AND CONTINENTAL BANKS HAVING TO FREE A HAND TO TAKE OUT UK BANKS WHILST THE BIG FOUR HAVE TO STAND AND WATCH !!!

[raxzi] 22/8/2004 14:44

impecunious
If it an encouragement to others it also implies an open door. Any bidding need start only at the value of the SCH bid.

[impecunious] 22/8/2004 11:40

Santander quoted today as saying they will walk away if other bids materialise causing a drawn out regulatory review.

Thankyou Santander for encouraging UK banks in this way to go ahead and bid for Abbey.

[markth] 20/8/2004 23:56

wendsworth : Agree. I've been looking at the ratios of the last few banking takeovers, six and a half quid doesn't look unreasonable here.

raxzi: Good post, I too remember cheerng Gerald S on from the sidelines as the Guiness saga unfolded. Was holding then and was lucky enough to sell out at the right time.

[wendsworth] 20/8/2004 18:54

Correction !!!!

Figures quoted for the week should have been 581.5p and 584.5p respectively .

Just not used to these dizzy heights !!!!

[wendsworth] 20/8/2004 18:51

raxzi : Thanks for your well argued and informed comment . I remain convinced that HBOS will eventually take out ANL with the blessing of the Board , ordinary shareholders and 'the institutions'. I suspect that other and all interested parties have ( since the 440s) and are continuing to stake build through the many 'vehicles at their disposal '.

Having started the week @ 481.5p and finished @ 484.5p ...having gone ex-dividend for 8.33p ... strikes me as being not an insignificant factor.

For what its worth ...having under -written my position by five figures I intend to hold until completion.

I remain convinced that all patient holders will see a return of the order of 625p per share.