Abbey Nat. Share Discussion Threads

[a77] 05/8/2004 08:26

Barclays CEO says Bank does not need M&A deals - but an excellent rise today

[dassera] 04/8/2004 09:26

The boy King is a good judge in my book.

[whipround] 03/8/2004 15:04

I don't know why I read the FT when the Sun has such a fine financial section. It must be true then!

[whipround] 03/8/2004 13:09

Erm .. you've got me there. Anticipated return to normal shareprice once ANL has been taken over.

[raxzi] 03/8/2004 10:18

whipround
When you say SCH will go up again, are you not making an assumption? Take the counter-example of Wm Morrison whose share price has fallen nearly a quarter since its takeover of Safeway because the anticipated benefits have so far failed to materialise.

[whipround] 02/8/2004 14:20

SCH at 8 E + 38p values Anl at about £5.66, however SCH price has been much higher and assuming that it will go up again once bid is completed means that bid effectively is worth near to £6.

[dvda] 02/8/2004 13:39

SCH bid + divis is only worth £5.50 at the moment, so does not really support this price. Another bidder may well appear, but will they bid more than the current share price of c. £5.80?

Given the level of the SCH bid, they clearly have no need to offer anything approaching the £6.50 mark, so why wouldn’t they start off in the sub £6 area? In fact they don’t even need to offer more than SCH – they could make their bid more attractive by including a larger cash element.

As an example, what if Lloyds came in with an initial bid of £1.50 + 1 share = £5.60? This is more than the current SCH bid, it has a greater cash element and the shares are UK based.


Changing topics slightly, has anyone given any thought to the divis that Abbey will be paying. They will be paying:

A special dividend of 25p.

A 6p dividend differential.

Doesn’t anyone find it slightly odd that part of the value of the bid is coming from Abbey itself? What in fact are these two divis, and wouldn’t they be payable to shareholders in due course anyway?

Is one connected to the promised return of excess funds following the disposal of PBU assets?

Is the other connected to the normal dividend that will not now be paid due to the takeover i.e. a part of the 16.6p final div to give a total of 25p?

I might be totally wrong concerning the two divis to be paid, but if their value was, in some part, due to shareholders regardless, this reduces the real value of the SCH bid even further. Does

[whipround] 02/8/2004 13:36

I think the 8p is 18 August, the 31p is some way away.

[grossone] 02/8/2004 13:32

anyone know when the cut off/ex D date is for the 30 odd p, divi. and the 8p special divi- or are they both in the future ?

[raxzi] 02/8/2004 13:30

maddox
The price level of 579 for most of the day moved up to 582 about three quarters of an hour ago (NY wake up time??).

[whipround] 02/8/2004 12:46

I think that there are a few other people out there who are keen on ANL so I wouldn't be in any hurry to sell. SCH bid with divis supports the price at this level so little downside - only upside at this price so hold is my advice.

[madgooner] 02/8/2004 12:32

I see any prospective HBOS bid as a 'spoiling' tactic, causing inevitable delay and almost certain eventual regulatory rejection. Meantimw a cutt price mortgage competitor gets denied entry to the UK market. Only losers are shareholders!

[maddox] 02/8/2004 12:28

OK guys, whatdyareckon? Hold or sell into the market?

Regards, Maddox

[raxzi] 02/8/2004 10:15

whipround
It's an interesting little flutter. The rule 8 reports are worth a glance. They show how some of the fund managers have been dealing (mostly selling 30 July at about the 566 mark). We assume they have their ears close to the ground but obviously not.

[whipround] 02/8/2004 09:45

Raxzi you've got a point there - exsiting borrowers are less risky than new ones. I think the differential stays the same - approximately 1.5% so as the rates increase the margin falls.

my b/e is 570 - only bought 10k as a bit of a punt as the shares were going up. I had a suspision that there wouldn't be a huge premium. I suspect that if another bid comes along SCH would be forced to couner bid - having come this far they wouldn't want to let it go.

[raxzi] 02/8/2004 09:39

whipround
With house prices having risen sharply, mortgage lenders have a cushion against bad debts on past loans. Interest rates are expected to rise and this in turn offers a slightly wider differential. There could be value in picking up outstanding loans.
More interesting, for me anyway, is that looking at the trades just now I detect selling by the very small shareholder with blocks of (eg) 25K being picked up. This was the pattern when BB. came to the market. In BB.'s case once the small holders were out of the way the price firmed considerably. SCH's problem (if there is one) is the small shareholder and anyone picking up their shares now would be in a position to sell them on at a small profit if SCH needed to improve the terms of its bid.
It seems worth staying with the shares to see if the 580p level is breached.

[whipround] 02/8/2004 09:25

HBos mortgage share dropped to 17% due to tightening of lending criteria, abbey now only 6% so combined 23%. Not sure about tightening of lending criteria then spending £9bn? to replace market share!

[fouroaks] 02/8/2004 09:21

thunders - but the bid was announced on the 26th July, so not much of a prediction ;-)

[prince26] 02/8/2004 08:59

out back latter.cheers

[thunders] 02/8/2004 08:54

Remeber what I said on 28 July??? Use your common sense!!!


thunders - 28 Jul'04 - 16:10 - 581 of 632 edit

Even though small investor are selling but price is going up that means big boys are buying. Probably they know something which ordinary folks not aware of. !!! Any view??? Bid is on the way ???

[broadwood] 02/8/2004 08:49

Obviously someone thinks the rumour has legs but it surprises me that HBOS thinks it could get through the C.C.

Lloyds was prevented on the grounds the combination would have too large a share of Current accounts - not applicable with HBOS.

Dilemma - take the profit or hang in. On balance 60/40 to stay with it.

[shirishg] 02/8/2004 07:52

Post removed by ADVFN

[bigface] 02/8/2004 07:35

I will be amazed if SCH get Abbey - 81m is small price to pay for getting the ball rolling in my opinion.

[wtacraig3] 02/8/2004 07:28

Speculaion from city experts on Radio 5 this morning is that if HBOS does submit an offer it will open the flood gates for the other banks make an offer - 'a free for all' is how it was described.