Abacus Share Discussion Threads

[ba5hir is back] 20/10/2007 10:02

Here I am its a dog.

[bletherer] 16/10/2007 14:20

I presume it's the Eriksson news causing some worries here. Found some buyers again though when it retested that 80p level.

[bletherer] 02/10/2007 10:32

Yup, up she goes. Was there an analysts' meeting this morning or something? Not sure why the sudden surge 2 hours into trading... Whatever, the confirmation of the double bottom with the break above 90p makes the chart look a lot healthier now. I am quite optimistic that it will take out the 100p level as that's simply too little for a retracement after this strong bottoming formation (lowest Fib level is 23%, which would already be over £1). I reckon it will most likely claw its way back to around 130p; but not above that unless their results give grounds for renewed optimism going forward.

[bletherer] 02/10/2007 08:14

Well, no new shocks in the latest trading update, though not exactly exciting. Given that it's lost nearly 2/3 of its value since it reached the highs at the beginning of the year I'm hoping that may be sufficient to spark a recovery rally. The chart does look increasingly like a bottoming formation, so I'm fairly optimistic this will rebound back to at least £1, which is the first level of significant resistance.

[bletherer] 26/9/2007 17:05

Odd price action today - huge trades this morning which appeared to have no impact, then a surge at the close. Looks quite positive but we'll have to see if it continues trading higher tomorrow - might just be a blip. That rally last month fizzled out rather tamely, but at least it has held once again at the lows leaving the possibility of a double bottom formation - which would be confirmed with a close at 90p or above.

[rokkie] 23/8/2007 14:06

Dow opens soon, if it opens up, which it is expected to, i think these will top 90p. the support has been good for these all day (9:1 buy:sell). Have sort of followed the same pattern as wng and those are flying at the mo: Another undervalued company knocked down recently making good recovery of late.

[rokkie] 23/8/2007 10:14

strongly agree with bletherer, hopefully it should break the 90p resistance level (last rally) today at least.

[bletherer] 23/8/2007 09:39

90p should be a bare minimum now but I think there's a decent chance that this will rally to a significant Fib level - these can be matched pretty neatly with the major lateral resistance areas on the chart, i.e. around £1, £1.30, £1.45.

[jimi2] 23/8/2007 09:25

Ba5hir - I don't think that you should be short on this one, it has a history of sharp moves and, barring fresh bad news, I think up is the direction we're heading.

[ba5hir is back] 22/8/2007 18:49

MMs uload a bit of stock then back down it goes.

[bletherer] 22/8/2007 11:44

Close above 80p would be nice - it's been trying and failing to do that for several weeks now.

[ba5hir is back] 20/8/2007 15:00

Dead cat bounce.

[bletherer] 16/8/2007 21:20

Amazing that ABU ended up 3% on a day like today - my only holding to do so. After the dramatic reversal on the Dow this evening I anticipate that tomorrow could be a big up-day in the market, and am hoping that ABU will finally start a bit of a recovery rally. After touching the all-time-low intraday and then reversing on big volume, today certainly had the look of a potentially significant trend reversal, but of course it needs some follow-through in the next few sessions to give us confirmation. Fingers xxd.

[atkijo] 16/8/2007 19:22

Given that the price rose in the last half hour or so of trading, I think we can safely say that most of those were in fact buys from earlier in the afternoon. ie delayed trades coming through late and then appearing as sells. Otherwise, on a day like today, there is no way the price would have finished at c76p.

[mmamuk2] 16/8/2007 16:30

Some large sells gone through between 16:04 and 16:10

16:04 74.50p 250,000 £186,250 Sell WT
16:10 74.50p 150,000 £111,750 Sell O
16:09 74.42p 59,209 £44,064 Sell O
16:05 75.00p 55,000 £41,250 Sell O

[2delta] 15/8/2007 10:53

Have to say the EURO slowdown is a concern going forward.

[atkijo] 14/8/2007 19:20

Yes, agree with jhan66, I'd be surprised to see any bid in the short term.

Fair points that you make Terminated, and I don't see it as a short term play either. Re the economic outlook though, whilst for the UK it's not great at all (despite what Brown would have us all believe), I think it's pretty good for continental Europe generally and Germany especially. And with ABU generating significant revenues from Europe (>50% from memory) that should bode well. Also, I can only see the pound weakening over the medium term from here which will also help on conversion back to sterling.

[jhan66] 14/8/2007 17:08

Don't think so. Not in this environment & not with these debt levels.

[deep powder] 14/8/2007 15:54

Looking at the free cash flow generation, a trade buyer must surely be looking at this.

[terminated] 14/8/2007 11:49

Just bought in myself. Some call it risky but that doesn't add up. Yea very high debt but still strong cash flows and on the whole it seems like a well managed business. Debt arose from acquisitions not wasted ventures so revenue should continue to increase. I do get the impression management are expansion evangelists who should consider a period of consolidation. Yes the expansion into Germany looks wise on the surface but this will again eat into revenues at least in the short term which again will be reflected in short term profits, and lets face it, this share needs some instant good news not more promises of future riches. Since they started expansion plans some years ago the share price has consistently subtracted (not sure is the share price has been diluted due to acquisitions), which begs the questions, were they good acquisitions? This is a long term recovery stock not for the short term in my opinion. Until they can pay off some of that chunky debt this share will remain volatile. Also the future economic outlook doesn't look good for the coming years (assuming bear predictions are right) and electronics are not the most resilient stocks in such a market especially when interest rates are rising along with the debt repayment levels. Still I'll hang in for three years. Sometimes patience is a virtue.

[atkijo] 12/8/2007 11:19

Well I'm now back in as of Fri, having originally sold out about 8 mths ago as was concerned at the time about the amount of debt that was being taken on with the Deltron & Axess acquisitions. The debt is obviously still there, but the share price has more than halved since and now, to me, looks more weighted on the reward side of the risk:reward ratio.

The expansion in to Germany looks like a smart move as the German economy finally starts to come good. Whilst the Board have had to concede that the growth they were hoping for in the current financial year won't be met, the most recent RNS of 9th July re-confirmed that "The Board is anticipating no change in Abacus' expectations for the year ending 30 September 2007". I'm reckoning that on balance that will mean a maintained dividend, which in turn gives a current yield of c9.3%, and therefore on its own a good reason for support at this level.

The risks? Any new downturn in trading, a query as to why the directors have not been buying at these prices, and in the current market any share can fall further. Ultimately though, the opportunity to buy in at pretty much an all time low into what I believe is basically a well-run company has proved too tempting.

[jimi2] 09/8/2007 15:04

Unusual trades today for ABU. Lots of v small buys going through.

[chrisdgb] 09/8/2007 11:07

steady volume this morning, with overhang gone, it won't take much for this to spike..