Abacus Share Discussion Threads

[bletherer] 29/5/2007 14:23

delta - it's up to you but here are 4 reasons why I'm waiting:

1. Trending price movements prior to results seem in my experience to reflect what's going to happen post-results more often than not, say about 80% of the time. It's probably even higher for small caps/AIM stocks for whatever reason... So odds are not favourable there.

2. Price is in a bad place technically - broken key support at 130 but not yet tested next and final key support level at £1. I reckon odds are now quite high, say 70%, that £1 will be tested at some point before a major rally takes hold.

3. If the report is bad it will be possible to buy more cheaper tomorrow (or, better, after 2-3 weeks when the dust has settled).

4. If the report is good and the share price rallies back above 130p it will be possible to buy with a much higher probability of making a return on your investment as you will then have sentiment in your favour rather than against you.

[2delta] 29/5/2007 14:22

personally share price saying massive profit warning, maybe ex. costs ect. which is worrying the market. I suspect there is some mispricing here but from these levels longer term there should be a good profit here.

[jimi2] 29/5/2007 14:18

It just keeps getting cheaper and cheaper! Unless there's a calamitous trading update tomorrow this has to be very good value. Cheap on P/e and yield basis. Cheap historically looking at price over the years with enhanced prospects now following the acquisitions.

I think I will have to grit my teeth, clench my buttocks and buy some more!

[2delta] 29/5/2007 14:16

Yeah online 2500 either way. I'm very tempted to top up but the unknown tom has certainly spooked a few.

[bletherer] 29/5/2007 14:12

I checked and found it 2k to buy and 2.5k to sell so not much difference. However the spread has narrowed a bit and I could get a bargain to sell but not to buy. The low limits suggest MMs don't really want to get too involved with this one either prior to tomorrow's report. Hopefully they are mispricing it at present: certainly the volume hardly seems to justify such a tumble unless there's a big seller somewhere in the background.

[2delta] 25/5/2007 14:21

Toilet Rolls at the ready. Just been to Tesco's and bought a 16 pack, LOL.

[jimi2] 25/5/2007 14:19

Good luck with those purchases 2 delta. Here's hoping you've timed this just right!

[2delta] 25/5/2007 13:35

blether- those two 20k were mine, 3x 10k and a 7.5k. Some of those trades are showing on plusmarkets. Have to admit i'm probably gunna lock my self in the sh*t house come results day. Over a year ago i watched these fall from 2£+ and timed it nicely buying big style 100-114p before the aquisitions and made a shed load. Hoping for a repeat but all depends on timing. If update is poor and share price tanks again i will consider topping up again. Might do so today or next week, depends if fall continues. One of those 20k's my broker said there was only 15oo on offer at the time but got the price quoted so don't know what to make of it. Suspect there may be some large block sells later on.

Might be getting carried away here but these look ripe for PE but WTFDIK.

[bletherer] 25/5/2007 13:24

delta - did you really mean 77.5, not 7.5? Whichever, I hope it's not too large a proportion of your pot as the chart doesn't look to me to have a lot of support until £1 if the update is adverse. Good luck next week, anyway.

[2delta] 25/5/2007 13:15

Had no effect whatsoever on the sp, maybe a large seller lurking in the background. After hrs sell no doubt. share price looks an outstanding buy but if trading has deteriorated share price might drop further. Balls of Steel or Fools Gold, i pray it's the former.

[2delta] 25/5/2007 12:53

You've no doubt heard the phrase "Fools and there money are easily parted", i hope that's not me as i've topped up with 77.5k.

[jimi2] 25/5/2007 12:07

2delta, As you say, big P/e around 20 for Electrocomponents. Oh for Abacus to be around that!.

My point I guess is that there's not been profit warnings being issued throughout the sector. If there is just a 'weakening in bookings' as I think Abacus so coyly put it then I'm sure the fall has been overdone.

As long as the new acquisitions Deltron and Axess are doing ok and there's nothing structurally wrong with the company then I,ll be happy to keep holding even if poor current trading is confirmrd.

Looking at the price action of Abacus over the years a buy at this price would always have made you money. I should probably buy more now on a long term contrarian view but I'm afraid I don't have the bottle!

[2delta] 25/5/2007 11:13

Jimi2, one broker coverage recently of Electrocomponents downgraded to sell saying pricing had peaked in UK & US. I stress one broker comment but it may have had some influence here, Electro on quite a heady p/e as well.

edit: not sure but may have been Goldman Sachs 18 or 19 May.

[jimi2] 25/5/2007 10:51

Agreed 2delta. I would say pricing in a awful set of results and update. Current forecasts put us on a fwd P/E of around 6.5 with yield of 6%. At these sort of levels the only downside I can see is if trading has drastically deteriorated (In which case surely an RNS would have been issued?).

I've not been able to find any evidence of any other elec distributors warning over profits. Can anyone say they have?

I'd guess some of the current weakness is down to Unicorn Asset fund mngrs who seem to be cutting their holding right back. Anyhow all will be revealed on May 30th.

[bletherer] 25/5/2007 10:35

Must admit I sold this morning, just before the latest drop (in fact looking at the timing I may have started it - sorry about that). A bit of a sickener as I was at one point hugely in profit and have ended up managing to make a small loss, but that .5M sell yesterday was quite worrying. Institutions/insiders selling just before a report is a bit of a red flag, and the price action on the chart now looks rather negative. Of course I will be kicking myself if the outlook is revealed as benign and the shares surge on Wednesday but there are risks in this game whatever decision you make. Good luck to continuing holders, anyway. I may be back if the report next week is encouraging.

[2delta] 25/5/2007 10:21

SP pricing a poor trading update we shall see.

[2delta] 24/5/2007 12:32

Yep, things could get bumpy ahead of results/trading update. share price can be very volatile so may get more weakness.

[jimmycarter] 24/5/2007 11:27

Large sell Today at 130p. 500k. Little worrying given results in a few days.

[kickoff3pm] 19/5/2007 10:23

Anyone thinking of selling the ticket after the cup can email me with the price they want. Please include the condition fold rips etc.

Thanks - [e-mail] - email

[matt] 19/5/2007 06:45

I heard it was the Champions League 3rd Place Play Off today at Wembley.

[bletherer] 11/5/2007 17:47

mon5 - can't see the triple bottom you're talking about, since it has gone below 130 recently. To me it looks more like a countertrend rally at the moment, but in the sense that it still is missing the "C" wave so far I would agree with you that it should have a bit more upside still in the coming week or two. However I'm currently sticking to my view that the falling 50 MA is likely to cap the rally, and that's currently at around 158 and getting lower all the time. Get on with it, ABU!

[mon5] 10/5/2007 14:37

bending back to 136 to form a triple bottom, if successful, could shoot off to 160-170