Abacus Share Discussion Threads

[mike61] 12/7/2007 08:02

The chip industry is a cyclical industry. It always has been thus. Demand grows. Manufacturers ramp up production. Too much inventory. Prices drop. Wait for demand for new designs to grow. Cycle starts over again.

[2delta] 11/7/2007 20:41

I don't think the debt is so large as to cause significant problems in a downturn but as u point out Mr. Market appears to have a miserable face regarding ABU and is pricing accordingly very negatively. Obviously there will come a point where these bounce from these or perhaps lower levels. Global economy still looks favourable even if the US subprime spreads and knock on effect. Many economists think US won't be so detrimental to Global econ as in the past because of Asia and expect this to continue into next year. Only time will tell but i'm inclined to top up big style if 75p is reached as in the longer term these should recover somewhat if previous cycles are a guide. Just a shame for me i didn't hangfire a couple of months ago but it is never easy to time. Sometimes waiting for the floor can mean u miss the bounce when it comes if EVER, LOL.

[bletherer] 11/7/2007 20:16

Yup checking back to 98 results I see their dividend was already 6.6p back then so in that sense they have been here before. However they weren't carrying £45m of short-term debt back in those days so perhaps not such pressures for belt-tightening in a period of cyclical down-turn as there may be now?

[2delta] 11/7/2007 19:27

Memory a little vague but going back to 99ish when i first bought these the div was 10% when the share price fell to 80p and the share price then recovered strongly so the divi has previously had a higher yield. FWIW i think the directors are on record recently that they favour a progressive div policy but any reduction in the div would be a blow and remove share price support. History is no guide to the future of course.

[bletherer] 11/7/2007 16:32

Pretty disappointing that they have to book a charge and effectively announce the failure of their IT system just a month after the interims. Getting bad news out in one go is a lot better than in dribs and drabs. And the trading update wasn't too encouraging either. I reckon the next big question (at least for us downtrodden shareholders) will be the dividend. Now at 8% it's in the "too good to be true" range - Mr. Market is clearly betting that it will be reduced or temporarily suspended and I'd have to say that Mr. Market has a pretty decent track record of predicting dividend cuts, though he's not infallible. With 100p gone and no good news likely in the short term I'm afraid this looks like it's going further down (probably to 75p or thereabouts) before it stages any major bounce.

[2delta] 11/7/2007 15:42

Topped up earlier around 90p with my div. Any bad news if there is any further out and resulting in lower share price 70-80p i will consider substantial top up. Lower profits if there was a warning shouldn't be a problem servicing debts & the div is covered 2x at the mo. Have to buy on the dips i think.

[imprima2] 11/7/2007 13:06

omg! what have I missed? How has this been whacked so bad?

[simon gordon] 11/7/2007 12:54

On a debt and equity valuation ABU are not 'deep value' territory yet.

Equity c.63m + Debt c.60m = c.123m

PBT for '07 = c.14m

2Delta - what price point are you looking for?

[2delta] 11/7/2007 12:25

This dog still looks sickly. Looking cheap at these levels, wonder if any PE is looking to put it out of its misery. If not the share price might become sicker and top up time though not yet.

[2delta] 09/7/2007 07:32

£9.6m intangibles write off sounds pretty hefty but it is not a cash write off affecting cashflow (ie dividend should be safe) i don't think but may push gearing up. £0.3m redundancy is cash outflow but will bring £0.6m in cost savings. Current trading in line is a +. If it wasn't for the debt this would be a candidate for PE/MBO IMHO.

[jhan66] 09/7/2007 07:19

£10M write off plus

"The calendar year 2007 has been characterised by a more difficult trading
environment"

not so good

[deep powder] 09/7/2007 07:13

In line trading statement.......

[liveinhope] 04/7/2007 16:32

According to Eaglet Investment Trust (EIN) RNS announcement yesterday, Abacus is one of its' top ten holdings. Interesting times.

[neilmc2] 04/7/2007 03:11

Does anyone know how bad the figures will have to be at the next trading statement to make this fall justified? I'm a little taken aback by the pace of the fall thats happened. Can't really see the justification for it myeself.

[liveinhope] 03/7/2007 15:19

GSPK TECHNOLOGY PARK LTD.

[jhan66] 03/7/2007 15:02

not major or listed. Just representative of an industry that is disappearing from the UK. It's following the well trodden route of textiles, shipbuilding etc.

[cyberpost] 03/7/2007 14:30

GSPK ? who are GSPK ?

[simon gordon] 03/7/2007 14:28

Hi jhan66,

Are they hurting because of Chinese competition?

[jhan66] 03/7/2007 14:23

Bad debts ?
GSPK just gone, they must have been a customer. Most Western Europe PCB builders are hurting at the moment

[jimi2] 03/7/2007 14:15

Anybody else still in this stock who hasn't lost the will to live?

Someone(Unicorn asset?) seems to be dumping more stock without any regard to price or fundamentals. Anyone got any theories?

[littlemadam] 25/6/2007 12:35

still waiting for selling to stop. as you say, we could well see 75p

[bletherer] 22/6/2007 13:12

Weekly closes are always that little bit more significant so if it can hold at around £1 into the close today there would at least be some hope that it can build a base at around this level. Conversely a slide into the close and a clear loss of the £1 level would suggest that weeks more of this sliding could be in prospect. Chart suggests 75p is the next stop if it doesn't hold up here.

[gearstick5] 20/6/2007 18:30

Now its x dividend the fall could keep going. They have high debt so that wont help with interest rates on the rise.

[jimi2] 20/6/2007 14:13

What is slightly discouraging is the lack of substantial director purchases after results. You would think that if the directors had any confidence in the future of the company they would be piling in at what looks, on the face of it, a bargain price.

I would guess that it is Unicorn probably still cutting back their position causing the current weakness.