Abacus Share Discussion Threads

[ba5hir is back] 08/8/2007 14:28

Bobing up and down on the 78pish mark then the next trendline down.

[nigelwestm] 03/8/2007 13:35

You were right Mike. Eaglet have reduced their holding to under 3%. They've clearly decided to take this on the chin. Anyway, now that they are out this should mean an end to the pressure on the shares...

[mike61] 01/8/2007 18:16

Someone cleared 6mln shares late this p.m. at 78+ and the price seems to have held. This holding is about 8% of the company. Unicorn have approx that size of holding

[2delta] 01/8/2007 12:27

Agreed, ABU has been holding it's own whilst those all around r in disaray. Hopefully it's a sign the tide is turning here but u never know what's around the corner so not out of the woods yet, time will tell.

[bletherer] 01/8/2007 11:56

The fact that Abacus has been resilient at these levels for the last week or so despite the pounding the broader market has received is encouraging me to think this may turn out to be a bottom of at least short-term significance. I am quite hopeful we will soon see a rally back to around the £1 area, though obviously this is likely to provide stiff resistance.

[2delta] 31/7/2007 16:21

Nice chunky 1m.

Another 1m @80 VW likely to of been a buy worked during the day as there was no 80 bid all day apart from the last few minutes.

[ba5hir is back] 31/7/2007 11:11

Bak down and looking like a new level lower.

[2delta] 30/7/2007 14:19

ACAL has low debt and has some higher margin business compared to ABU and is therefore rated higher ie p/e is approx 11-12 based on fwd '08 eps 26.87p provided that eps is accurate. Therefore it is rated about double the p/e of ABU 6.

[simon gordon] 30/7/2007 13:34

bench2 - thank you for that analysis. ACAL on first glance looks better value than ABU, especially if you don't want your nervous system to become too sympathetic and locked in an awful stress cycle.

[bench2] 30/7/2007 12:03

Difficult to see ABU attracting buyers now ACAL has collapsed to 305p. ACAL has what ABU would like a rock solid bal sheet hardly any debt and strong cash flow of between 42p-57p per share per annum for the last 5 years...but more of a plodder.

[ba5hir is back] 27/7/2007 10:44

Falling agin debt is high and trades is difficult. Expect more falls.

[bletherer] 26/7/2007 16:13

ABU still holding around the 80p mark despite the battering the indices have been getting the last few days. Encouraging, but we need to see if it then can push back up when the broader markets stop panicking.

[ba5hir is back] 26/7/2007 11:06

New shareholders?

Institutions bailing out wont encourage pis.

[chrisdgb] 26/7/2007 11:05

Needs some decent volume, drifting on nothing. Management need to get some new shareholders on board, take note!!!!!!!!!

[ba5hir is back] 26/7/2007 10:28

Going back down again it looks like a new low is coming.

[bletherer] 25/7/2007 17:00

Nice to see ABU bucking the trend the right way for once and closing up on a down day for the overall market (when was the last time that happened...?). Price action still consistent with the bottoming scenario but if it's going to happen we need to see some buyers coming in over the next few days and a move back above that 90p level. It's still just a hope at the moment, but maybe some of the people who have been dumping stock elsewhere in the past couple of days might look around for some value and think they could do worse than have a punt on ABU.

[deep powder] 24/7/2007 18:41

Depending on your time horizon, short term the fall is certainly overdone, the benefit could be a takeover approach. I would be circa 65/35 in favour of this happening. Problem is that what level would it be, holders accept 140p?? In the long term represents not that great a deal. Who knows it's only money...

[bletherer] 24/7/2007 17:32

I think at these levels the market is already assuming that broker estimates are too high for the year so in that sense a further profit warning is "baked in the cake". How else to explain a P/E rating now of around 6, which is the sort of valuation you usually see at the bottom of a bear market and miles below any of its peers? What the hell, I bought a few more today as well though I'm still way below your level delta and that's it for me. Expectations are now so low that even bad-but-not-very-bad news could see a share price recovery IMO.

[2delta] 24/7/2007 16:59

bletherer

The mkt has had a bad day overall today. I'm concerned that the share price drops massively on small sells it would seem. Can u imagine though if we get an update soon re trading for July and it's weakening, what would this do to the sp, i daren't even consider that but the cashflow has recently been raised to 17.8p according to my broker figures so providing the eco storm clouds don't gather, darken, this is a steal IMHO but those figures are forecasts which could be revised downwards, i just don't know but i pray for the best.

I have to say i also hope my judgement is better than the last time i bought these as i have bought more today around 80p. They could go lower still, i hope not but i am ready to buy in again lower if this happens. If there was a profit warning to come i just don't know where the bottom would be as the mkt could panic re servicing debt, 40-60p maybe, i pray not. It seems this continuing fall is certainly praying on minds wondering whats to come. I think the fall is now overdone but WDIK, the mkt has a mind of it's own.

All the best to current holders, fingers x.

[bletherer] 24/7/2007 15:24

2delta - don't think those dark thoughts just yet. To me this behaviour is still consistent with a reversal formation, though of course there's no guarantee it will actually become a reversal until we see the share price start to move up again (by now above 90 would already be pretty decent confirmation to me that we're in some kind of recovery mode). After such a serious decline you will almost always get a confirmatory retest of a potential low, so this move back down was almost bound to happen even if we are about to see a recovery. Of course if it is to be a recovery rather than a new downleg I'd want to see it hold above 80p on a daily basis or at the very least above the all-time-low of 73p. It really could be time to man the lifeboats if 73 goes, though.

[2delta] 24/7/2007 14:54

Hmm, new territory, is this a precursor to poor trading deteriorating further i wonder to myself. Last time the fall preceded bad news re slowing trading & the recent IT write off.

[simon gordon] 24/7/2007 13:03

If the market had a correction - widely anticipated by some - share could go to 60p.

---

'Stormy forecast for the stock market - James Harding: Business Editor:

Even when the sun came out and England started tearing through the Indian batting order, Lord's has been a depressing place in the past few days. It has been inundated with executives with the jitters.

The chairman of one of the biggest investment banks in London, for example, said he has just sold all his shares. When asked what he thought of the likely fallout of the US sub-prime market, he said: "I won't tell you what I think. I'll tell you what I've done. I have moved all my money, all my wife's money and all our pension money out of equities."

There may be many people who foresee continued long-term growth in the stock market, but these days it is not just the Met Office putting out miserable forecasts.'

[bletherer] 24/7/2007 12:13

Gah, retesting those lows again. It's at least low-volume and technical indicators like RSI and MACD are showing some major positive divergences at this stage on the daily chart, so some hope that we may be nearing the end of the current downleg. Another bounce from around here to form a double bottom would be nice.