Abacus Share Discussion Threads

[andysand] 30/5/2007 07:43

Another obvious case of insider trading. I have no idea what the share price will do today but given the cautious outlook it is no longer a buy for me.

Andy

[2delta] 30/5/2007 07:19

bletherer

what's your prediction going forward? Personally i'm thinking we've seen the lows but what a stomach churner yesterday was, LOL. Considering '07 eps were 17.5 wondering what the forecast now is. 6.4eps pre exc. 1st H. i'm thinking something similar to last year, around 12-13eps for the year as long as trading doesn't get worse so therefore the fwd p/e would be 9-10ish- GOOD VALUE IMHO.

[2delta] 30/5/2007 07:15

Current trading in May was weak and management growth being scaled back for the 2nd H. "The current market conditions are disappointing but looking further ahead we are confident of achieving organic growth." Results were as expected but current trading accounts for the share price fall but does look overdone imho. As long as trading doesn't deteriorate further and it would appear management seem reasonably confident these look a steal imho. Expect the share price to bounce off these levels as this may well be the bottom.

[bletherer] 30/5/2007 07:07

Results are out. Here's the key outlook statement which sounds mixed, but not too bad. Suggests to me that the falls may have been overdone, although you can never tell how the market will react.


Outlook

The first six months of the current financial year to 31 March 2007 have been
characterised by fluctuations in the trading profile. The first four months
continued the good performance seen in the second half of the previous financial
year. The last two months saw reduced bookings in the UK, Italy and Sweden and
stable bookings in our other European markets. Bookings in April showed some
recovery but May has again reverted to weaker levels. This has led the Board to
conclude that it is unlikely that current trading trends will allow progress to
be in line with its previous expectations of growth in the second half.



The current market conditions are disappointing but looking further ahead we are
confident of achieving good organic growth, particularly in Germany where market
conditions are more favourable and where we have in the past few months opened
four new offices. Elsewhere in the Group, as bookings improve, higher sales
will translate into improved gross profit with minimal additional overhead.

[2delta] 29/5/2007 16:32

Lets hope for something reasonable tomo and not another brown pants day. Sp predicting a shocker, i hope not.

[andysand] 29/5/2007 15:41

I bought at 142p a few days ago and sold out at 125p. The fall was a big surprise and I can't really explain it. Suffice to say, the results will make interesting reading!


Andy

[2delta] 29/5/2007 15:15

Thanks cyber.

[cyberpost] 29/5/2007 15:12

it wasnt suspended, there was an auction taking place.... during this time you cant deal, which gives the impression its suspended.

[2delta] 29/5/2007 15:10

anybody know what's going on!!!!!

My computer displayed abu share price was closed them my computer went down for a few minutes. now showing as trading abu

[2delta] 29/5/2007 14:57

Bid higher than offer 111.25-111

[bletherer] 29/5/2007 14:56

Crikey at this rate it might hit the £1 level this afternoon. Conspiracy theorists might want to look back to the price action from about 10 days ago which struck me as a bit odd at the time - rallied to around £1.43 on the Friday on quite good volume and then mysteriously started selling off the next Monday. I hope this wasn't because someone put the word out to avoid, but I'm afraid it wouldn't be the first time if so.

[nigelwestm] 29/5/2007 14:56

When do you think will be a good price to get back in? 100p?

[2delta] 29/5/2007 14:55

online 104-118 LOL

[magwash] 29/5/2007 14:52

level 2 is very weak at the moment. 16k on the buy side BUT 46.6k on the sell side.

either someone knows something or the market has got it completely wrong.

[thefod] 29/5/2007 14:51

Begs the question whether someone is in the know. share price reacting as though there is a profits warning a day before the results.

It is already down from nearly £2 per share just a couple of months ago.

[bletherer] 29/5/2007 14:45

Yep, sorry I meant "interim results" (amended post). So the actual figures should not contain nasty surprises unless they come up with exceptionals: it's the 2nd half outlook which will be key. Market seems to be expecting something pretty dire given that share price has virtually halved in just a few months - eps would have to be falling back to around 12 or so to justify the current pricing.

[jimi2] 29/5/2007 14:44

Bletherer, I think this is one of those occasions where it's worth having a punt on the market having drastically overreacted.

I think a poor trading update is already in the price. A decent update could see us around 160p very quickly tomorrow and the only real downside is something unexpected gone horribly wrong(a possibility but I think unlikely)

Even if this goes wrong I certainly feel the odds are worth taking on this occassion.

[2delta] 29/5/2007 14:41

These are pricing in a shocker. Banking covenats breached ect- ridiculous sp, may top up 2500 not sure!!!

[2delta] 29/5/2007 14:37

First half inline but the 2nd half only just underway so if there is a slowdown '07 maybe less than forcast.

[bletherer] 29/5/2007 14:34

From memory didn't the trading statement pretty much say that the interim results were going to be inline with expectations? I think the key part of the report is what they say about how trading has gone in the last two months and prospects as they see them now. Though of course any hefty exceptionals would be unwelcome, too.

[2delta] 29/5/2007 14:31

bletherer waiting is probably wise. I first bought these pre dotcom at 85, sold 120 and missed the dotcom mania unfortunately. Sp is very scary i'm wondering if there is going to be some unforseen one off exceptionals or perhaps there is a slowdown, either way looks like profits are going to fall short '07 but as ever the market always over reacts. We will see. Electro are due tom, Prem F. day after i think.