Abacus Share Discussion Threads

[philjeans] 09/1/2008 12:03

Looks as if its bottomed at last!

Happy to keep picking them up on the down days - collected the divi and I think it's a solid lock away in my ISAs for a year or two.

[jimmycarter] 23/12/2007 21:32

Bletherer

I think you have done well there. I wanted to buy in below 60p and unfortutely didn't have funds available. I think this will rise till the dividend. Then maybe the general climate maybe more clearer. Either way I agree will you completely. I think it does look excellent value. Obviously any negative announcement will send this down but a positive one will send it much higher IMO.

[bletherer] 18/12/2007 11:18

Don't know if it's brave, wise or foolish but I did add some more yesterday at 57p. Bit of a risk I admit given the cyclical nature of the business and the likelihood that 2008 will be a difficult year, but at current levels the price already anticipates extremely bad results next year and the outlook statement contained in the results last month sounded considerably more optimistic than that. There is some risk, I guess around 10%, that ABU will be forced into something dire like a debt-for-equity swap if it swings back to operating losses and the banks will not extend facilities - but on any other scenario I think these will provide great rewards on a 3-5 year basis, paying out a great dividend in the meantime. If it survives any recession without major dilution then current share price levels are going to look an absolute bargain.

[jay083] 17/12/2007 14:58

well he did say loonies - you need need to get one of your mates to post - then this will be a short!

[simon gordon] 17/12/2007 11:50

You would be mighty brave to pick up stock with so much bad Macro news around.

2008 could be a terrible year for equity and Small Caps.

[jdung] 17/12/2007 11:45

now 55.5p. maybe buy ?

[bletherer] 04/12/2007 17:00

Oh dear, that mid-70s area which was previously offering support is now acting as resistance - a retest of the recent lows could be on the cards again. Bit more attractive now though after those reasonable results and the maintained dividend, so I don't think it's likely to break into new low territory. I'm minded to add if it gets back into the 50s this month as that final dividend is pretty juicy.

[ba5hir is back] 04/12/2007 10:50

I expected profit taking this is going down .

[nigelwestm] 29/11/2007 10:17

Looks like my decision to buy at 70p has finally been rewarded, although I was holding my breath for a while. Where to now? Any thoughts Bashir?

[oniabsta] 27/11/2007 14:48

Bought at 56p = Happy!! 'Chill out' and enjoy the ride.

[simon gordon] 27/11/2007 14:42

bletherer, spot-on analysis.

If ABU sense the EU economy will slow dramatically, they should be shopping the company around - right now!

I think we are more than probably in for a torrid time in 2008. Look at Citigroup being bailed out by Gulf money, at an 11% interest rate - that is a whopping rate for the biggest bank in the World. If no mega bank goes down in '08, we will probably learn in a few years time that one or more, came close to insolvency.

Good fortune!

[bletherer] 27/11/2007 14:31

Nice bounce today, and about time for us long-suffering holders who've watched what already looked a value company getting cheaper day by day. It sounds from the commentary as if they anticipate at this early stage a roughly similar level of performance next year, which if we strip out exceptionals means that even after the bounce today they're still on a P/E of around 6 and a dividend yield of 10%. Around £1 would look much fairer value to me, and hopefully we will be seeing those levels again in the weeks ahead. The risk is always that if Europe's economy slows more dramatically than is currently forecast Abacus is in a cyclical area and could be in danger of breaching its banking covenants if revenue dives. If debt were £10m rather than £50+m I reckon these would be near double the current price: but the high debt levels mean there is a "catastrophe risk" built into the price (what happens if the European economy goes into outright recession and ABU breaches covenants???) which would not exist for a company with a stronger balance sheet.
Technically it has 2 critical levels, at around 73p and around £1 - we've pretty much made it back to the first one, and I'm hopeful it will re-establish the range between 73 and 100 soon as this seems a more reasonable valuation given the current risk/reward balance.

[jimmycarter] 27/11/2007 12:13

Results are good, much better then perhaps feared.

Should be recovery from here in.

[mesquida] 27/11/2007 10:25

House broker HOARE reckons these are worth 120p - would be nice to see some Director purchases so as to add some weight to their case.

[jhan66] 27/11/2007 09:21

Hi Green Stew, Your'e right to mention about the ERP System, though I view it as Management Incompetence rather than a fluke.


An extra £10M bottom line on-going will be very handy & make Abacus look very promising prospect

[edmondj] 27/11/2007 09:00

Seemingly tight market here, unable to trade online at all first thing, so I'm not surprised the shares were hammered on fears of a recession.

[green_stew] 27/11/2007 08:37

"Would have been nearly £2M in the negative otherwise"

Yeah except you've conveniently overlooked the £10.5M on the ERP system so "would have been nearly £8M in the positive otherwise"

[jhan66] 27/11/2007 08:19

Results are better than I expected but a few negatives such as weak market & inferred higher finance costs. I see they made £1.2M on foreign exchange plus £1M on pension gain. Would have been nearly £2M in the negative otherwise.

I'll be watching to get in for Christmas & grab the dividend, though not at this price.

[edmondj] 27/11/2007 07:39

Debt service/divi fears seem to have been overdone; a key issue going forward is whether they can sustain turnover with its implied operational gearing, amid European slowdown, although obviously the market is already factoring in part/all/more of the risk depending on one's outlook.

[2delta] 27/11/2007 07:38

Yep, bodes well for a bounce, a BIG ONE please!

[value stock picker] 27/11/2007 07:35

Perhaps better than expected considering the cataclysmic share price fall. Divi maintained, debt £59.9m, further property sales since year end of £5.6m. Outlook reasonable. The stock market is taking a hammering at the moment but hopefully we have seen the low for ABU yesterday.

[bletherer] 27/11/2007 07:25

First glance at results suggests no disaster, and they've maintained the dividend and reduced debt a bit. Should be enough for a bounce, I hope.

[jimi2] 26/11/2007 13:37

More likely I think to be up a bit on the day due to shorters closing. Why take the risk of losing a good profit when results tomorrow may not actually be that bad? - The results should show a very profitable company paying down its manageable debt and mantaining a 12% yield.