Mears Share Discussion Threads

[joshalexander] 04/10/2007 20:10

hosede

Congratulations, you must have a very nice retirement fund to look forward to,
as MER's record over the last five years has been stunning.

I am heavily invested in Claimar Group (CCGP) - which is a Domilicary Care provider - and has just entered into higher margin acute care with yesterday's aquisition of Complete Care.
Claimar reminds me very much of where Mears was 5 years ago,
the difference being that they operate soley in the Care Markets.

[hosede] 04/10/2007 16:03

Thanks Josh for correction. Mears is by far my biggest holding, but they have been so reliable over the years, I don't take too much interest in the details - I just let them get on with it and (so far) they've produced above expectation results every time!

[polopolo2] 04/10/2007 11:40

The Independent Investigation results should have been out last month, my guess is they will want to dot the i's and cross the t's etc before the announcement which surrounds a company with - IMHO - impecable integrity. I reckon a favourable outcome will come before this month is out.

[5dally] 04/10/2007 10:07

Doing well again today:-)

[5dally] 03/10/2007 09:16

Should we not have had the results of the BBC allegations by now polopolo2,

I can only see the share price rising from now IMO and hold with confidence, Care in the home will continue to grow, no doubt about that, the need or should I say the demand to free Hospital beds for non medical patients is stronger now then ever and the home care sector are being pushed to the limit to cope with this demand,
IMO local councils will be offloading ALL the responsability for this care to Agency's and in the very near future IMO

[joshalexander] 29/9/2007 08:31

polopolo2

I am aware that this has caused much of the current malaise in the share price
There needs to be a quick and favourable conclusion for the sake of anyone holding here.

Make no mistake, the current share price is holding back growth by limiting aquisition opportunities IMO.
The longer this continues the more serious the impact is.

Closing at just above £2.60 yesterday, Mears need some good news - and quickly.

[polopolo2] 28/9/2007 19:50

Fear not, this one will bounce when bbc investigation is concluded shortly.

[joshalexander] 28/9/2007 18:35

Its Domilicary care, not carehomes - which is a completely different market.

The issse is that the current shareprice is now going to limit expansion opportunities IMO.
Mears will effectively be unable to issue many new shares at the currect share price
They wanted to persue an aggressive expansion in domilicary care, mainly by aquisition over the next couple of years.
I think this door is now largely closed with the current weakness in the share price
This does not bode well for longer term growth IMO.

I would not hold currently, too much uncertainty, as always DYOR.

[hosede] 28/9/2007 10:36

I think investors are waiting to see how the carehomes side performs.

[sunburst] 27/9/2007 18:02

(1) Tipsheet retains "hold" position on MER.

But (2) MER counter-trends the market with a 2% fall today.

Often shares I own get hit by shorters but this surely cannot be the case with MER. Is it the result of the recent scandal (or supposed scandal)?

[rafieh] 30/8/2007 14:15

The downward drift has been resumed.

[hosede] 21/8/2007 09:00

Yes another another excellent set of results. The trouble is the market expects this from MER and there is little response. Still at this price the PE should be down well into the teens by the end of this year. If (when) the sh*t really hits the fan over the credit crisis this looks a good defensive hole

[hazelton] 21/8/2007 07:35

Mears Group PLC is once again pleased to announce record results for the six
months ended 30 June 2007.


The highlights for the six months include:


* Turnover up 16.0%
* Profit before tax up 23.3%
* Diluted earnings per share up 19.7%
* Interim dividend up 22.2%
* Major contract awards £196m
* Order book increased to £1.24 billion
* Acquisition of Careforce Group plc



Bob Holt, Chairman, said:

'I am pleased to announce record results for the 6 months ended 30 June 2007.
Your Group is in good hands for the next stage of development. The management
team remodelled how social housing services have been provided and purchased by
local authorities. We will strive to replicate our success in the care sector
and continue to be a market leader in all markets in which we operate.'

[hosede] 20/8/2007 11:59

There is some support on the chart between 250 and 260: if it breaks down thru that in a general collapse, its difficult to see where it might end!

[polopolo2] 16/8/2007 22:15

Strong progress in share price over last few days whilst others plummet south. IMHO results next week will continue to impress the market.

[polopolo2] 07/8/2007 12:11

In the absence of any updates I picked up the phone and spoke with the company on friday and was informed the awaited outcome of the investigation is not due until September.

This will be after the results which are due around 21st this month. Am sure the results will continue to impress as thay always have but the share price will perhaps linger until the September outcome.

I am no expert but strongly feel they remain a strong buy at these levels which have not been seen for over a year.

[hosede] 06/8/2007 11:04

Tibbs
Yes we seem to have similar tastes in shares. topped up here at 280 and its now my biggest holding - very defensive. Originally bought at 29 so its emotionally quite difficult to buy at 280!

[mistertibbs] 29/7/2007 12:32

Josh, thank you for explaining your point. I also agree about the Home care market. I continue to see plenty of activity with Laidlaw Scott in these parts so can only presume the takeover of them by mer has been good for them as previously, they were rarely seen in my neck of the woods.

Hello yet again hosede.I also agree with you on that one. I would also like to see the directors showing some faith in their company as they seem reluctant to buy or even hold shares other than their options. That for me, is the largest negative.

[hosede] 25/7/2007 14:52

Would be nice to have some follow-up to the "denial of any problems in BBC report" nearly three weeks back.

[joshalexander] 20/7/2007 21:40

mistertibbs.

I was simply pointing out that the % increases in earnings looking forward are beginning to slow, in the context of the type of growth the Mears have enjoyed over the past five years. This is partly beacuse MER is now a larger organistaion, but also beacause they already have a large chuck of the "Social Housing" Market, although opportunities still remain to grow in that sector.

My comments were just to explain why they have expanded into the "new" Domicilarly Care Sector, where Careforce have about a 2% Market share. This shows how hugely fragmented this Market is - and also the opportunity that MER now have to grow aggressively this part of the Business. The Home Care Market will be a main driver of growth in the years ahead IMO.


Regards

[mistertibbs] 20/7/2007 16:08

Broker Consensus Earnings (p)
FY1 31/12/07 16.38
FY2 31/12/08 18.61
FY3 31/12/09 20.9


From a different site. Still looks ok

* Diluted EPS - normalised for full tax pre amortisation 13.63p (2005:
10.80p), up 26.2%

And this from the finals in April.

Please explain your comment JA regarding broker forecasts

[mistertibbs] 20/7/2007 15:52

Forecasts
Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
31-Dec-07 315.75 16.90 16.39p 17.7 1.4 +13% 3.94p 1.4%
31-Dec-08 363.67 19.63 18.39p 15.8 1.3 +12% 4.47p 1.6%

Covering analysts: Arbuthnot Securities, Daniel Stewart & Company Plc, Dresdner Kleinwort, Investec Securities, Numis Securities


Now this may be out of date. Will investegate. Doesn't look like a reduction in that little lot.

[mistertibbs] 20/7/2007 15:48

JA...I find your comment on forecast earnings interesting. Brokers', now if ever there was an overpaid shower of chancers', brokers' take the top prize as far as I'm concerned. They look to the next few weeks and turnover as many stocks as possible in order to generate commission, all in the name of advise.

And I refer back to my previous post on the quality of BBC journalists today. Need I say more?

[joshalexander] 20/7/2007 10:10

Also looking at the Broker forecasts for Mears, earnings growth is set to slow sharply over the next two years. They need to grow the Business to keep their premium mulitple, this growth will largely come from growing the Domicilarly Care Business aggressively IMO.